I actually read on an American forum that the GFS update has proved highly ineffective and is now going to be subject to further revisions in a bid to actually close the gap on ECM... except that model also has a parallel in progress that would likely move the goal further away again 

Briefly, here's a neat illustration as to why I'm not too concerned about GFS' constant bid to bring a broad trough across the UK by the final days of the month;

The 06z on the left has the straight, flat jet that seems very out of place for the summer but would be possible if GLAAM dropped as far as GEFS have been indicating, but the 12z has wavier, weaker jet that's more in keeping with GLAAM holding up higher such as should be expected given a neutral ENSO background.

This adjustment leaves GFS needing several more days to force the pattern toward the broad UK trough. There's only so far this GLAAM forcing can go against observation data suggesting otherwise.

Hoping ECM with it's reduced prediction of MJO phase 2 activity can behave itself in the 7-10 day range tonight, particularly having now had the very warm weather cut short by a day compared to the 00z model consensus (shallow low moves through Thu instead of Fri).

Actually the +168 just rolled out and...

I'm afraid it's being a bit of a twit about things. Why's it so obsessed with high-latitude blocking at the moment? A world away from GFS and GEM (well, only until day 9 in the case of the latter... hmm).

Seems like a good time to focus on the short-mid range instead 

One is not amused by the 12z ECM!

Pissing all over my Glastonbury parade in spectacular style. Boo! 

I was there last year, and in 2013.

Trust me, the latter year was much more what it's all about. ;-) 

GFS always seems to underestimate temperatures.

GFS 06z offering a scorcher of a week in the south- high twenties until Friday and still warm next weekend.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/00_159_uk2mtmp.png?cb=547

The above may not prove accurate given the model shift this morning which has been toward letting more of that hot air in from the south during the period Tue-Fri, for example here is GFS adding three more days knocking on the door of 30*C with Wed still in the high 20s in parts of the SW:

Given the tendency to underestimate the maximums this is a startling turn from GFS after the sudden move toward a faster breakdown yesterday.

ECM and UKMO would rather peak the heat on Thursday, though;

Likely in the high 20s widely with 30*C possible in parts of the south, before a thundery breakdown into Friday. UKMO does however join GFS in having weak ridging from the Azores being influential enough to prevent a cool and unsettled weekend from following (GFS is in fact still in the mid-20s across the south but this does seem optimistic!).

ECM remains the 'demonic model' as it continues to dive the Atlantic jet south and to be honest I just don't get where it's getting such a prominent idea from. On day 8 it also puts an unprecedented (for June) 1960 mb low over the Arctic so it really is in a bad mood!

Funnily enough GEM was being even more aggressive with that Arctic storm but has now backed down, and is also permitting some impressive plume action for the UK with the heat lingering all the way out until Sunday across the SE'rn half of England;

So, lots of entertaining output around but the weather is so fine today that I will now put it all aside anyway  

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/120_thickuk.png?cb=726

Now how often do you see the 564dam that widespread, so far north? This from the ECM.

What sort of temperatures woould 564 dam air give.

I don't like hot spells. Still one of the best things about them is we get to enjoy the NAVGEM comedy routine. Take it away!

Ukmo looks very good and hot away from the far north out  to day 6. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

GFS hot in the south til next Sunday . Not bad 12z so far.

Hi Caz. So sorry to hear about your mum. Hope it goes OK for you on Wednesday. Take care.

Ecm has 850s of 19/20c on Thursday most of the other models have something similar. You would have to think the all time June max 35.6c is under threat. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

Thanks Saint!    I don't want to hijack this thread but I'm hoping Wednesday isn't going to be too hot, as my son and nephews will be in suits and ties for carrying mum's coffin.

I felt for those in full uniform in this heat at the trooping of the colours today and I believe one of them passed out and was stretchered off.  Do you follow my train of thought?  

So can anyone give their thoughts on Wednesday's weather in North Notts?  

I'd say sunny about  25c ish so not too bad the real heat Wednesday is further west.