Northerly airstreams still seem to be able to deliver to Greece, even as far south as Crete, so claiming they are too weak to affect the UK is frankly nonsense.

The problem with the current setup, as others have said, is that the cold is on the wrong side of the Arctic at the moment.

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It is not nonsense.  It is a valid point.  Spend a bit more time presenting your evidence rather than a blanket dismissal which smacks of laziness.

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Northerlies deliver in winter to places like Greece Rob is due to the fact that there is no maritime modification of the airmass in its journey south. The UK is scuppered as our source is via the ocean. The source is less cold by a reduced polar ice cap and modified by corresponding higher SST's compared with yesteryear 

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Then why is it a shame GFS was so lovely .....that would imply you think UKMO is correct ....poor choice of words I’d say 

 

To add to the above the latest update from the Met suggest a return to a Northerly .....a continuation of the cold theme

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_96_1.png 

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Looks like the 12z GEFS has lurched downwards in terms of temperature. Compared to the 6z, it's noticably colder in low-res...

Here's the TWO chart. The Meteociel version isn't anywhere near as cold (the control run doesn't have ice days, for example), but the same general theme applies - it's colder than the 6z.

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Can I just point out that my mother-in-law is over in the UK for the winter for the first time since December 2010... She arrived on Friday. Just as the temperature plummeted.

TWO cold and snow lovers might like to know she is due to be here all winter. 😉

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Darren is quite correct and Steve(Gusty) beat me to it on the Greece question.
Looks a pretty cold outlook to me, albeit no 2010.

There have been unsubstantiated rumours and conjecture over the years the even "insiders" don't rate the UM 144. Nonetheless I've never seen evidence for this and the stats show it is consistently close to the European and ahead of GFS/CMC for most of the time.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

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Similar to Nov 2008? end of NOV 2009 was similar too!

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Thanks for that Darren.

Yes, the GEFS paints a rather cold picture throughout. Interesting to note that the diurnal range is pretty low which tells me that there could be an E'ly influence in the SE corner with some murk and some wintry flurries. Another possibility is similar as to what may happen next weekend with fronts moving down from over the High from the N and bringing some wintry flurries as it mixes with the colder surface air.

Slowly but surely is the way at the moment and IMO, much better than just a quick/short snap of an arctic blast in-between Lows from a mobile set up.

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Startling how far back the GFS is. Is CMC the GEM?

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A nice ECM 12z so far...but it is only up to 72hr!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_72_1.png  That’s a lot of cold way up north.

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Yes, CMC = Canadian Meteorological Centre  which runs GEM.

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I think it might be down to the fact that people inevitably jump to the last frame of a particular model run, which is invariably going to be the least accurate. When the GFS 384hr charts  and ECM 240 hr charts shift, change and fail to verify, people excuse them on account of being too far out. But fewer people look as hard at the ECM and GFS 144 hr charts as they do the Met Office ones, so they don't notice that the UKMO is no better or worse than the other two for verifying at 144 hrs.

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And on that theme...ish. The ECM 12z is more similiar to the GFS op run than the UKMO model by day 5

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png 

Whether the next stages look as wintry remains to be seen at time of writing.

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Funnily enough, and as much as it may be serious conjecture, my mother in law arrives from Australia next Sunday for the first winter visit since 2009. It is often said winters here follow the Australian winter in terms of European snow, and it was the best ski season down under in years last winter.

Still good signs of the GFS from later this week, according to the latest charts and ens.

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Yes looking good for a reload from the North on the ECM.

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no need to look when you are positive 😀

ECM at T+192

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017112612/ECH1-192.GIF?26-0

Northerly on the way but the high pressure hasn't retrogressed quite so far at this point.

 

Edit: 850s show the warm sector moving south

 

 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017112612/ECH0-192.GIF?26-0

 

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Considering the timescale there is very good agreement between the ECM and GFS for what it is worth.

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 I’ll get the snow shovel out and the larder stocked in that case. 

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SLP/500hPa:  http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017112612/ECH1-240.GIF?26-0

 

850s: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017112612/ECH0-240.GIF?26-0

 

Wow....

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I think mine has rusted through lack of use...and it’s plastic 

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Well, I will be happy if some of that Cold deep air over Greenland makes it all the way down to the south coast with upper air temperatures of sub -10c, on about day 12.  Gandalf - your in box is full!

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