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Gandalf The White
30 November 2017 19:53:09


 


 


Yes a pretty dreadful ECM with a huge Azores High and energy going over the top. 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Didn't we have to endure this erroneous 'analysis' earlier in the day?


Please post some charts that support your comment because I don't recognise that pattern in the latest output from GFS, UKMO or ECM.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
30 November 2017 19:54:26


 


I don't see much interest on tonight's ECM because high pressure is always close by. Its actual positioning is of little relevance to me because whether it will bring cold or warmth, there will be little in the way of some decent vigorous weather, as you would normally expect at this time of year. 


GFS, on the other hand, has 70 mph winds and snow around the 8th for moi, so my interchangeable faith is placed firmly that model tonight.. until it all goes southwards in the next run. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Well, if you're only interested in 'vigorous weather' then I can understand the charts may be a disappointment.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
30 November 2017 20:01:14


 


Well, if you're only interested in 'vigorous weather' then I can understand the charts may be a disappointment.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Indeed, as much as I understand how the charts might be quite thrilling at the moment for those like you who openly embrace the mundane, the banal, the mediocre. Different strokes an all a dah.

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gandalf The White
30 November 2017 20:05:30


 


Indeed, as much as I understand how the charts might be quite thrilling at the moment for those like you who openly embrace the mundane, the banal, the mediocre. Different strokes an all a dah.


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Oh dear, I see you're back to your customary unpleasantness.  It would help if you could maintain some civility in here, difficult as it may be.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


David M Porter
30 November 2017 20:06:04


 


i thought it was quite an encouraging run synoptically, given how it could have gone. Still predominantly blocked with a substantial surface and upper high in mid-Atlantic, ridging north towards Greenland at the end, and pressure falling over Europe.


Nothing much wrong with the T+240 chart



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Agreed completely there, Peter.


I'm afraid I don't see where Ian is coming from at all when he calls the ECM dreadful, other than he is quite possibly once again interpreting what the ECM 12z shows in a deliberately misleading manner.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
marco 79
30 November 2017 20:13:18

Nice to see a sneaky Arctic High at the end of GFS-that's where real cold will come from

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


Arctic heights are very pronounced for the next couple of weeks at least...If this spills out to our side of the hemisphere then game on....It seems due to this anomaly the models keep repeating this fact esp GFS...Something out of the normal default is hard to model...Some good signals ..Fingers crossed ...

Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Polar Low
30 November 2017 20:14:38

Members dont fool for it anymore Ian


Image result for man yawning


 



 


 


Yes a pretty dreadful ECM with a huge Azores High and energy going over the top. 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

David M Porter
30 November 2017 20:18:33


 


 


Arctic heights are very pronounced for the next couple of weeks at least...If this spills out to our side of the hemisphere then game on....It seems due to this anomaly the models keep repeating this fact esp GFS...Something out of the normal default is hard to model...Some good signals ..Fingers crossed ...


Originally Posted by: marco 79 



As Moomin has said on more than one occasion lately, one thing is for sure about the current pattern and that is we are not in anything like the set-up we were in this time two years ago. In late November 2015, we had what seemed to be a semi-permanent HP area over central Europe and a raging & seemingly unstoppable northern arm of the jet throwing one LP after another at us. At this moment, we do not have persistent HP over the continent and heights seemed to be focused just to the west of the UK or in the mid-atlantic.


From what I can see from the models, things looks no less promising for cold than they did in late November last year.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Chunky Pea
30 November 2017 20:20:52

ECM op quite close to the mean in terms of general pattern at 240hrs:



Despite the close proximity of low pressure, frontal/shower activity I think would be quite weak over the NE Atlantic, given the diverging look of the westerly flow. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Hungry Tiger
30 November 2017 21:13:16

Fwiw - a forecast I've seen for next week is this. Colder weather returning - But for how long.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


The Beast from the East
30 November 2017 21:23:30
I think we need to look east rather than north for our next cold spell (if it comes at all). Can’t see how heights can be sustained over Greenland for the foreseeable. Our best hope is for the jet to split and undercut promoting a scandi high
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
White Meadows
30 November 2017 21:49:01

I think we need to look east rather than north for our next cold spell (if it comes at all). Can’t see how heights can be sustained over Greenland for the foreseeable. Our best hope is for the jet to split and undercut promoting a scandi high

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Agree with this. Not much seems to favour sustained Pressure over Greenland. 

The Beast from the East
30 November 2017 22:00:49
Phil Avery talking about cold returning next weekend, perhaps!
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
30 November 2017 22:05:18
Are there any easterlies shown in the model output? There are a few northerly options, including the repeating signal from the GFS model. Will the 18z op GFS run continue this theme?
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gooner
30 November 2017 22:30:11

Phil Avery talking about cold returning next weekend, perhaps!

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Similar to the 18z

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gandalf The White
30 November 2017 22:41:42


 


Similar to the 18z


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Indeed. 18z delivering quite a sustained cold shot with a very blocked Atlantic and what looks like a reload as we end the high res part of the run.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017113018/gfsnh-0-240.png?18


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ballamar
30 November 2017 23:20:39
Hints of higher pressure up towards Scandi at end of GFS again
White Meadows
30 November 2017 23:30:41

Hints of higher pressure up towards Scandi at end of GFS again

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Not really, heights over the Atlantic & Europe way to bloated as usual.

roger63
30 November 2017 23:35:50

I think we need to look east rather than north for our next cold spell (if it comes at all). Can’t see how heights can be sustained over Greenland for the foreseeable. Our best hope is for the jet to split and undercut promoting a scandi high

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0


ECM at 240h has the prospect of  a second slider LP and a Scandi high building west.

nsrobins
30 November 2017 23:42:33


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0


ECM at 240h has the prospect of  a second slider LP and a Scandi high building west.


Originally Posted by: roger63 


Can’t be ruled out, but a Scandy high set-up looks to be around 10% chance at the moment IMO

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gandalf The White
30 November 2017 23:42:34

ECM 12z ensemble suite for London has reverted to the idea of a dominant cold cluster from day 9-10. The rest is mostly just scatter, aside from a small cluster that signals a possible couple of days of average maxima.


 



 


http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
30 November 2017 23:44:53


 


Can’t be ruled out, but a Scandy high set-up looks to be around 10% chance at the moment IMO


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Agreed. In fact the ridge that appears to nudging in from the east is actually from a HP cell about 2,000 miles to the east.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


SEMerc
30 November 2017 23:58:08


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0


ECM at 240h has the prospect of  a second slider LP and a Scandi high building west.


Originally Posted by: roger63 


Good point.


If the second low (T+240) follows the same track down over the UK as the first low (T+216) then it could be game on.

The Beast from the East
01 December 2017 00:20:38

Some impressive members on the GEFS, this is the best 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
White Meadows
01 December 2017 06:04:05


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0


ECM at 240h has the prospect of  a second slider LP and a Scandi high building west.


Originally Posted by: roger63 

 


Morning all. Winter is now statistically upon us.


The latest LR met update seems to support some kind of easterly block as Roger alludes to. 

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