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springsunshine
01 January 2018 19:14:16


So I /we have the right to moan - Last Xmas into January many parts of continental Europe were plunged into a freezer for weeks on end except the UK & Ireland and maybe Scandinavia! Now this winter all the cold air and proper cold severe wintry weather is going to north America instead as well as Canada! When will it be our turn!? Stuff these rubbish one or two day cooler snaps - We need proper sustained cold lasting weeks - It can happen - Feb 09, Jan 2010, Dec 2010 and March 2013 etc etc, but it's never happened since! We are so unlucky!

We are in an easterly QBO, approaching solar minimum. On top of this we are having a La Nina albeit weak and yet we still struggle to get any sustained proper cold weather lasting for more than a day or two! Just pathetic really! Maybe those Midlands northwards did well and have done but for the south it's been dire!


We await a cold spell mid Jan 2018 and that it lasts for more than a day or two. Fingers crossed.



Happy New Year all.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Your prayers may well be answered next week

howham
01 January 2018 21:18:30


Easterly muck. That is all. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Do you think it would be that terrible here Michael or just nearer the coast?  

johncs2016
01 January 2018 23:36:41
I wouldn't be surprised if that upcoming easterly produced showers which just fell as rain here on the coast itself, as what happened last year (albeit a bit later on, in February), especially since that air isn't going to be coming all the way from Siberia and especially since the air to the east of us isn't even all that cold just now, anyway.

Anyway, my gripe for tonight comes from the fact that tonight was supposed to be a bit colder than of late with a better chance of an overnight frost. Yet, we have the same old story yet again where too much wind means that the temperature is once again, refusing to drop. In fact, it isn't even any colder here just now than what it was during the latter part of the afternoon which is absolutely pathetic for a night which was supposed to be that bit colder.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
idj20
01 January 2018 23:46:27

I see the GFS has me down for 24 hours of strong south westerlies in the middle part of the week, 35 to 40 mph sustained with up to 66 mph gusts.

FFS, can't I go through at least a week without experiencing a wind event of sorts? I'm sure not only global warming does exist and is killing off my winters, but is also making it more windier than normal (like an extended version of Autumn).

Folkestone Harbour. 
Whether Idle
02 January 2018 07:05:51


I see the GFS has me down for 24 hours of strong south westerlies in the middle part of the week, 35 to 40 mph sustained with up to 66 mph gusts.

FFS, can't I go through at least a week without experiencing a wind event of sorts? I'm sure not only global warming does exist and is killing off my winters, but is also making it more windier than normal (like an extended version of Autumn).


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Ian, thank your lucky starts its not a southerly or the arch nemesis the SSEly!

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 January 2018 08:02:51


I see the GFS has me down for 24 hours of strong south westerlies in the middle part of the week, 35 to 40 mph sustained with up to 66 mph gusts.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


MetO confirming this with a weather warning


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-01-03


Watch out for coastal flood alerts appearing here as the wind combines with high spring tides


https://www.floodalerts.com/


 

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
02 January 2018 08:54:49


 


Do you think it would be that terrible here Michael or just nearer the coast?  


Originally Posted by: howham 


If (and it is a big if) it was cold enough it would be good but if there is any moderation in the cold it will be chilling overcast greyness and little more. Real winter weather (dark and cold) but not a real winter wonderland. If it was cold enough though? That’s a different matter. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 January 2018 12:27:07


 [copied from the Model Output to avoid derailing the serious weather thread}


Far North? In the same way Manchester is the far south?  Northern parts perhaps but far north is perhaps 200miles north of here.


Anyway that misconception aside


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


In weather terms , the North does begin at the M4 because north of that is where it snows - see earlier posts in this moaning thread.


Or, to quote an infamous BR poster of the 1950s, "Excursions to Scotland and other towns in the North of England"


And in any case, any true Kentish Man (or Man of Kent) knows that the North begins at Watford, and Manchester is a town on the Scottish border. This perception may have arisen because before and often after the building of the M25 it took a good two hours to clear the north of London, and when you left there the roads were a lot more open. 


 


PS - only joking - and if it makes you feel any better, the name 'Kent' comes from the tribe of the Cantware, which translates as 'dwellers on the edge'

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
02 January 2018 12:45:19


 


In weather terms , the North does begin at the M4 because north of that is where it snows - see earlier posts in this moaning thread.


Or, to quote an infamous BR poster of the 1950s, "Excursions to Scotland and other towns in the North of England"


And in any case, any true Kentish Man (or Man of Kent) knows that the North begins at Watford, and Manchester is a town on the Scottish border. This perception may have arisen because before and often after the building of the M25 it took a good two hours to clear the north of London, and when you left there the roads were a lot more open. 


 


PS - only joking - and if it makes you feel any better, the name 'Kent' comes from the tribe of the Cantware, which translates as 'dwellers on the edge'


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
richardabdn
02 January 2018 13:10:53

Another repulsive day to conclude yet another horrible festive holiday period. A waste of time being off work. You can't go out for long walks because every single day it's either raining, windy or icy. Currently it's 2.6C and raining and the next day I have off work looks like delivering the same. Utterly vile 


Every year now it seems to be the same - turning awful just as Christmas approaches. 16 hours sun and just three dry days out of the 11. Compare that to the 11 days up to the 22nd December when there were 38 hours sun and seven dry days.


What little good there is in this putrid climate seems to get eroded further and further with each year that passes 

Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
Bertwhistle
02 January 2018 13:14:29


Another repulsive day to conclude yet another horrible festive holiday period. A waste of time being off work. You can't go out for long walks because every single day it's either raining, windy or icy. Currently it's 2.6C and raining and the next day I have off work looks like delivering the same. Utterly vile 


Every year now it seems to be the same - turning awful just as Christmas approaches. 16 hours sun and just three dry days out of the 11. Compare that to the 11 days up to the 22nd December when there were 38 hours sun and seven dry days.


What little good there is in this putrid climate seems to get eroded further and further with each year that passes 


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


Brilliant- classic Richard.


I have no illusions that this will come as any compensation to you, poetic one, but at the other end of the UK the weather is foul, has been foul and will be foul no doubt even under the cold conditions forecast for the weekend. It's the lack of sunshine that is making my bones ache.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Whether Idle
02 January 2018 14:32:04


Another repulsive day to conclude yet another horrible festive holiday period. A waste of time being off work. You can't go out for long walks because every single day it's either raining, windy or icy. Currently it's 2.6C and raining and the next day I have off work looks like delivering the same. Utterly vile 


Every year now it seems to be the same - turning awful just as Christmas approaches. 16 hours sun and just three dry days out of the 11. Compare that to the 11 days up to the 22nd December when there were 38 hours sun and seven dry days.


What little good there is in this putrid climate seems to get eroded further and further with each year that passes 


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


Agreed, an absolute classic and a textbook example of  how to moan.  Richard, you are the King of Moaners, I salute you.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
02 January 2018 18:08:58

By the way (and off topic) "Watford" as in "North of the Watford Gap" refers to the small village in Northants just South of the M1/M45 junction, where the roads, railway line and canal all squeeze through a narrow gap in the hills. It doesn't refer to Watford the suburb of NW London.


There is some logic in this - it's a sensual as well as a real geographical dividing line between the true Midlands and the extended South East. From the Watford gap onwards business, commuters, culture etc. are angled towards Birmingham rather than London. My family live just North of the gap.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
phlippy67
02 January 2018 22:38:05
For some of you the charts look promising and you may get frosts and more snow but the reality is that here on the east coast for a NE High to bring real cold it needs to be orientated from W to E extending from mid UK all the way across to Russias Baltic coast, then you cut off the mild airflow from the south wrapping around the high, and start to pull in a proper easterly originating from the north east of Russia...as in the 70/80s...add to that the fact that Scandinavia isn't that cold at the moment and the north sea is several degrees warmer than it used to be, due to mild winters during the past decade or so...with the odd exception, any precipitation, especially on the coast will be wet rather than white, and we won't get frosts either, the Midlands and southern counties may get more snow...again...due to fronts pushing in to the cold air, but I'm not holding my breath, I hope I'm proved wrong, however watching the weather patterns change over the past 20-30yrs has diminished the probability of a real period of winter to virtually nil in my part of the UK.
Brian Gaze
04 January 2018 16:00:26

Spring on the way? 





Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Joe Bloggs
04 January 2018 18:57:27


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Solar Cycles
04 January 2018 19:11:40



Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

😂😂😂😂😂 Not from me Joe, I’m bitterly ( pun intended ) disappointed to see another ECM failure, since its last update it’s performance post +144 really has taken a nosedive IMO. Although it could just be a case of only noticing it when it’s forecasting cold spells.🤭

picturesareme
04 January 2018 19:20:05
Winter has yet to arrive down here!! Fungi are still growing that should have been killed off by December. Daffodils continue to push up in new locations by the day.

Only got around 5 weeks of winter to go..
Joe Bloggs
04 January 2018 19:32:14


😂😂😂😂😂 Not from me Joe, I’m bitterly ( pun intended ) disappointed to see another ECM failure, since its last update it’s performance post +144 really has taken a nosedive IMO. Although it could just be a case of only noticing it when it’s forecasting cold spells.🤭


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


ha! Yes it has most definitely led us up the garden path.


Golden rule (which to be fair we all followed), if ONE of the big three isn’t on board (including ECM), take note. The one not forecasting cold is usually the most accurate. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
doctormog
04 January 2018 19:53:00


 


ha! Yes it has most definitely led us up the garden path.


Golden rule (which to be fair we all followed), if ONE of the big three isn’t on board (including ECM), take note. The one not forecasting cold is usually the most accurate. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Except in this case they all seem to have been equally wrong (although that could still change). It makes me wonder why we bother! 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Solar Cycles
04 January 2018 19:56:30


 


Except in this case they all seem to have been equally wrong (although that could still change). It makes me wonder why we bother! 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

It must be the least rewarding hobby of all time here in the U.K. 😁

Joe Bloggs
04 January 2018 20:00:34


 


Except in this case they all seem to have been equally wrong (although that could still change). It makes me wonder why we bother! 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Amen. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Joe Bloggs
04 January 2018 22:18:55


Ian Brown in the model thread right now.


Apologies - this silliness is therapeutic - no offence intended. 😂😂


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Tim A
04 January 2018 23:49:24
Has something really fundimentally changed which has reduced the frequency of easterly outbreaks as some members suggest? If so caused by some small change in atmospheric behaviour. This wouldn't be built into the forecast models. Therefore is it possible that we would get more phantom easterlies appear in the models which don't materialise...
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Retron
05 January 2018 03:49:39

Has something really fundimentally changed which has reduced the frequency of easterly outbreaks

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Yes. There's never been such a dearth of them in at least 120 years.


Take your pick from Arctic warming, AMO (which switched positive around the time of the last midwinter easterly, in 1997), stronger Ninos, general warming etc.

Leysdown, north Kent

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