Average daytime maximum temperature v forecast for Saturday:

London        8C  v  3C

Birmingham  6C  v  4C

Manchester   7C  v  3C

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

We are facing probably our best prospect of widespread wintry weather in years... with the chances of snow on snow events for quite a wide area of the country.  Theres a real chance that this Cold air could lock in and be topped up.  

The GEFS are probably the lowest ive seen them - on a grouped scale - for the extended period that they are.

A word of caution- that we know how fickle our weather is, I hate to ramp.  But you cant deny the below is simple brilliant.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Such a shame. Winter is over.  

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Indeed, I think Ian is being a bit mischievous there. Of course the projected temps may well be wrong but going of the current data temps will be several degrees below the monthly average.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Thats a bold statement, when not one run in the GEFS ens goes anywhere near the 30 year average (850 temps) until ~ 7th Feb:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=801

Originally Posted by: hobensotwo 

BBC weather forecast at 13.30 just confirm snow risk for Tuesday of next week. This is the first time I have seen this.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

BBC weather forecast at 13.30 just confirm snow risk for Tuesday of next week. This is the first time I have seen this.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Saturday looks very marginal, think it will require some heavy precipitation arriving at the right time to turn places white. Otherwise could be 2-3c with light rain and sleet. The model output I have seen support these type of temperatures rather than the 0 -1C you would ideally like.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

Only a bit?

I had a word starting with 't' in mind, rather than 'm'.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I'm more interested in the possibilities this Saturday because it is nearer.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Seems fair to me bbc weather lastnight stated cold rain for many on Saturday with snow over the likes of the pennines

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Dear all, I wish I had more time to post in this forum as I find it so interesting, but, I couldn’t resist the following observation.

After the various models took a bit of stick in recent weeks, take a look at comments made by several posters in pages 2 and 3 of this thread (23rd Jan - the Met Office Fire) and review comments made about what the models were showing (ECM at 10 days) and some of the GFS suite at 10 days plus. Now take a look at the 1-5 day output and draw your own conclusions on model capability to estimate (roughly) the synoptic set up between 1 and 2 weeks away when we focus on trends in sequential runs, and the GFS suite, not single GFS Op runs.

Jeff

Originally Posted by: Jeff 

It has the potential to be a classic snow event, with an occluded trough moving into a very cold continental airmass, with cold Pm air following behind. What we don't want is for the trough to stall too far west or weaken too much.  Nirvana would be for it to stall somewhere over the eastern half (IMBY).

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Brian, From memory they had 7 or perhaps 8 degrees on Saturday and 6c for Monday. I think they are wrong. We have 7c today so if the trend is one of getting colder as they say surely 1c is nothing note worthy.

I am speaking about the SE of course.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Dear all, I wish I had more time to post in this forum as I find it so interesting, but, I couldn’t resist the following observation.

After the various models took a bit of stick in recent weeks, take a look at comments made by several posters in pages 2 and 3 of this thread (23rd Jan - the Met Office Fire) and review comments made about what the models were showing (ECM at 10 days) and some of the GFS suite at 10 days plus. Now take a look at the 1-5 day output and draw your own conclusions on model capability to estimate (roughly) the synoptic set up between 1 and 2 weeks away when we focus on trends in sequential runs, and the GFS suite, not single GFS Op runs.

Jeff

Originally Posted by: Jeff 

BBC? I don't know who provides their forecasts now. What I know is the Met Office weather warnings / snow forecasts in recent weeks have certainly seemed flaky at times and below their usual high standards. This Sat could well be a rain event for most but I continue to think it is worth watching closely.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Brian, From memory they had 7 or perhaps 8 degrees on Saturday and 6c for Monday. I think they are wrong. We have 7c today so if the trend is one of getting colder as they say surely 1c is nothing note worthy.

I am speaking about the SE of course.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Plenty of interest going forward. Here's a static snapshot of the GEFS12z.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Raw output for the SE suggests about 4C on Saturday (5C in London) and 3C on Monday (4C in London).

The same raw output that feeds the Weather Channel app suggests a mean temperature next week (Mon to Fri) at or below zero here, with highs of between 2C and 3C and lows between -2C and -4C.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Brian,

Correct it was the BBC forecast. I have no idea why you would mention that it will be getting colder and then present temperatures which are same or 1 degree higher then what we have today. It really confuses me and annoys me as well.

Ever since they invested in that 100m computer their forecasts have got worse as far as I am concerned.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 

Here are the DWD ICON 6z max (like GFS they provide max and min temps for each timestep) temps for Sat.

Wrt Beeb forecasts my bone of contention is their propensity to zoom in on shower activity. It is farcical IMO and they would be better off going back to shower icons over areas rather than displaying raw model output.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze