theweatheroutlook

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AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
25 January 2019 11:13:25


Should we start the ‘Spring moaning’ thread?  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Wasn't there a 'Signs of spring' thread once?  A few days ago I noticed that some shoots from crocus bulbs were nearly 2 inches high.  But I guess that's just normal for the time of year.

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
Solar Cycles
25 January 2019 12:07:01
My snow has disappeared. šŸ˜”

First time since 2010 that Iā€™ve witnessed lying snow for 24 hours and will probably have to wait another number of years before I witness the same again.
fairweather
25 January 2019 12:15:02

We have reached the stage now where it is going to get difficult to claim this as a decent winter whatever, despite the constant optimism of a few on the MOD thread. It seems we have two chances left to salvage something.1. Next week,  2. The last three weeks of February, 


Next week may produce snow but I doubt it will be lasting severe cold.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
noodle doodle
25 January 2019 13:40:39


 


Actually Exeter hasn't seen any snow so far as you may know but Dartmoor has had a light covering!


Has Edinburgh not seen any settling snow at all? What about snow falling? I remember this time last year you had plenty!? - Mostly from a westerly (cold zonality). 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


I saw some snowflakes in southern edinburgh at about 500 feet asl (falling at the rate I was able to count them) on tuesday morning this week. Like one every ten cubic metres of air šŸ™‚ - it then sleeted later on, so of course nothing stuck


 


Next week is looking snowy, but then again it always does :-)

Saint Snow
25 January 2019 14:43:22


I had a dream where a Unicorn was riding a rainbow


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


 


Brexiteers share your dream


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
tallyho_83
25 January 2019 14:48:05


 


 


Brexiteers share your dream


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


This winters weather is in turmoil just like our Political situation! 


Another overcast mild, dank and gloomy borefest of a winters day! 12c and utter cr4p as I type! No wonder so many people are depressed in this country when you look outside..!?

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


marco 79
25 January 2019 14:50:16
Sunset beach....Florida...Gulf of Mexico....beautiful sunshine and 8c....here 11.5c...damp and dismal as Sh*t....coldest part of winter....joke climate...
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Bugglesgate
25 January 2019 17:35:11

The rhubarb in my garden thinks spring is here - it's going great guns  !


To be honest I'd trust a load of old rhubarb to know what's going to happen  rather than various models.  I reckon it has more idea  !


Looking forward to my first crumble in about mid Feb the way things are looking


 


 


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 January 2019 17:37:39

Can I suggest splitting the model output thread into two? One part for the next 5 (or maybe 7) days, the other for everything beyond that?


I'm fed up with reading through selected stellar eye candy which never verifies.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
LeedsLad123
25 January 2019 19:57:20


The rhubarb in my garden thinks spring is here - it's going great guns  !


To be honest I'd trust a load of old rhubarb to know what's going to happen  rather than various models.  I reckon it has more idea  !


Looking forward to my first crumble in about mid Feb the way things are looking


 


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


send some my way please - rhubarb crumble is my favourite. 

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
JACKO4EVER
25 January 2019 20:07:07
I was in Kent today, 13c and sunshine. Beautiful.
The only moan I have is that I had to drive north and leave it behind.
Maunder Minimum
25 January 2019 20:26:15

I recently stated in the model output thread that the NWP (for this part of the world at least) has not improved a jot in the past 20 years and indeed has gone completely into reverse gear this winter, which has had "potential" since early December, yet has delivered a few frosts and no snow in Worcestershire at least.


I was wrong!


It is even worse than that!


The week ahead CountryFile forecasts in the 1980s were more reliable than the model output we see on a daily basis these days.


The NWP is utter rubbish this winter, crapper than ever, stupid, making fools of us and wasting our precious time!


At this rate, we will be waiting until February 2035 for winter to deliver something in lowland England and even then it will turn up out of the blue and contrary to the crud being predicted by the completely useless NWP models.


I reckon that this winter, the computer boffins gave the synoptic crayons to a four year old and went on an extended holiday to the South Pacific!

New world order coming.
Maunder Minimum
25 January 2019 20:38:23


Can I suggest splitting the model output thread into two? One part for the next 5 (or maybe 7) days, the other for everything beyond that?


I'm fed up with reading through selected stellar eye candy which never verifies.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Agree 100%. Edge of reliable is t+72, FI is t+120 and complete bollox comes at t+144. Beyond that, it is teenage scribble.

New world order coming.
tallyho_83
25 January 2019 23:46:07

Sunset beach....Florida...Gulf of Mexico....beautiful sunshine and 8c....here 11.5c...damp and dismal as Sh*t....coldest part of winter....joke climate...

Originally Posted by: marco 79 


Well at least they manage clear cold crisp and sunny days even if it's colder they get sun and even manage a frost in tropical Florida! Temp rising through the night as I type 10c now  - in Exeter.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
26 January 2019 08:13:13
I was hoping otherwise but the next few days seem to show an infuriating outlook here. Very wet but not quite cold enough for snow or very cold but no precipitation. Itā€™s interesting to look at projected snow cover maps and seeing what you would think was one of the snowiest locations in the U.K. in a little bare sliver of nothingness whilst large parts of the country are covered and for once you can guarantee those charts will be accurate!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_162_25.png  I know other places will miss out too but the fact we will, like with the ā€œBeastā€ no doubt be a little island in a snowy mass of excitement is frustrating. Anyway back to staring out at the melancholic cold drizzle.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
roadrunnerajn
26 January 2019 08:26:52
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_162_25.png  I know other places will miss out too but the fact we will, like with the “Beast” no doubt be a little island in a snowy mass of excitement is frustrating. Anyway back to staring out at the melancholic cold drizzle.


I lived just outside Peterhead for four years and as soon as you drove a few miles inland you would reach the snow. We used to call Mintlaw the snow line. On my frequent visits to the Granite City we would come into snow at Ellon for it to be gone again in Aberdeen.


I used to drive the 118 miles from Peterhead to Aviemore to get my snow fix during the winter...


As for missing out on the snow I remember that Beast from the East in January 87 Peterhead had 2 inches for a couple of days whilst England got buried!!

Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
doctormog
26 January 2019 08:40:10
I can picture all of that but Peterhead is generally a poor location from snow. The Blue Toon definitely rather than the White one!

Aberdeen does very well from the now seemingly extinct cold northerly or even a NWly (many past examples are available). Itā€™s the ā€œwell you had the Beast from the Eastā€ and it ā€œwill as always be snowy up thereā€ mentality which is really frustrating as many many places (even in the south) have been snowier than one of the climatically snowiest cities in the U.K. over the last few years.

I would expect it, as you rightly point out, for it to be snowier inland. but to be almost snowless here is not the norm (unless itā€™s a stupid easterly!)
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Whether Idle
26 January 2019 08:45:35

I can picture all of that but Peterhead is generally a poor location from snow. The Blue Toon definitely rather than the White one!

Aberdeen does very well from the now seemingly extinct cold northerly or even a NWly (many past examples are available). It’s the “well you had the Beast from the East” and it “will as always be snowy up there” mentality which is really frustrating as many many places (even in the south) have been snowier than one of the climatically snowiest cities in the U.K. over the last few years.

I would expect it, as you rightly point out, for it to be snowier inland. but to be almost snowless here is not the norm (unless it’s a stupid easterly!)

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Talking of snowlines as one who lives at sea level on the south coast, this week was a perfect example.  The snowline Wednesday 9.30 am was about 20m asl.  By 4pm it had reached 50m asl. 


We do benefit here at sea level from the 21 mile Strait of Dover allowing imported cold and proximity to the continental land mass from a cyclonic SSEly.Also when we get a NEly or NNEly we are not on the windward coast so specific local factors allow even this canyon bottom location a chance.  But for anything marginal IMBY is hopeless - for that its a 3 minute drive or a 10 minute walk to Dover Castle and Downs behind - there was a world of difference on Wednesday where there was a very respectable 7-8 cms up there. 


Id forgotten how stark the contrast can be.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
26 January 2019 09:00:34

Yes, I can imagine the frustration, knowing the geography of Dover and environs. Here’s hoping some of those setups shown currently have everything aligned so it’s so snowy by the coast you can’t even get up the hill to admire the view! 


I was at Dover Castle the summer before last and it was lovely down by the coast but decidedly chilly at the castle....and some rather cool fog. We felt right at home. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
bowser
26 January 2019 09:22:32

I can picture all of that but Peterhead is generally a poor location from snow. The Blue Toon definitely rather than the White one!

Aberdeen does very well from the now seemingly extinct cold northerly or even a NWly (many past examples are available). It’s the “well you had the Beast from the East” and it “will as always be snowy up there” mentality which is really frustrating as many many places (even in the south) have been snowier than one of the climatically snowiest cities in the U.K. over the last few years.

I would expect it, as you rightly point out, for it to be snowier inland. but to be almost snowless here is not the norm (unless it’s a stupid easterly!)

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Indeed, it was the same with Fraserburgh. There always seemed to be a patch of white out towards Pitsligo while we were pummelled with wet crap. I seem to be doing the same this winter but it’s the topsaround the glens of foudland instead!


Having said that, with proper frigid air, I’ve seen north coasts do better than the usual suspects by being in the firing line of general shower activity and other features that pop up unexpectedly. March 2006 springs to mind.

doctormog
26 January 2019 09:30:18
March 2006 was phenomenal here.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
richardabdn
26 January 2019 09:58:19

It's hard to decide what has been most repellent about this total disaster of a winter. The lack of snow, the lack of frost, the mildest Christmas period since 1988, the endless dull dark mornings or the disgusting weekend weather. What's clear is it's got absolutely nothing going for it whatsoever 


Reports of ice on the River Dee during the week https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/river-dee-frozen-ice-aberdeen-weather/ 


but by the time I get a chance to see it, it's all gone to be replaced by the vilest, most repulsive and unphotogenic conditions imaginable.


The last sunny Saturday was way back on 10th November since then I've had to endure 11 consecutive Saturdays waking up to grim, grey rubbish. A few have seen the sun break through later on, but the most sunshine there's been was a woeful 3.4 hours on 29th December. Of course the sick joke there is that is the only week when I hadn't been at work so didn't matter 


Today is just the worst of the lot was thick murk, drizzle and unhealthy easterly air. Not a single day I've managed to get out on a long walk this month. The past two and a half months have been one of the most depressing and horrifying periods of weather I've ever had to endure   

Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
Solar Cycles
26 January 2019 10:00:56


I recently stated in the model output thread that the NWP (for this part of the world at least) has not improved a jot in the past 20 years and indeed has gone completely into reverse gear this winter, which has had "potential" since early December, yet has delivered a few frosts and no snow in Worcestershire at least.


I was wrong!


It is even worse than that!


The week ahead CountryFile forecasts in the 1980s were more reliable than the model output we see on a daily basis these days.


The NWP is utter rubbish this winter, crapper than ever, stupid, making fools of us and wasting our precious time!


At this rate, we will be waiting until February 2035 for winter to deliver something in lowland England and even then it will turn up out of the blue and contrary to the crud being predicted by the completely useless NWP models.


I reckon that this winter, the computer boffins gave the synoptic crayons to a four year old and went on an extended holiday to the South Pacific!


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Lol, I tend to agree. 


Watching those old  Countryfile/Farming weather forecasts back in the day sure did feel far more accurate than today’s pale  imitation. 

richardabdn
26 January 2019 10:07:30


 


I lived just outside Peterhead for four years and as soon as you drove a few miles inland you would reach the snow. We used to call Mintlaw the snow line. On my frequent visits to the Granite City we would come into snow at Ellon for it to be gone again in Aberdeen.


I used to drive the 118 miles from Peterhead to Aviemore to get my snow fix during the winter...


As for missing out on the snow I remember that Beast from the East in January 87 Peterhead had 2 inches for a couple of days whilst England got buried!!


Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 


Aberdeen had 24cm in January 1987. Both Peterhead and Fraserburgh are much less snowy as they stick out in to the sea so get coastal modification even from a northerly.


This current snow drought here is without parallel in at least the past 100 years 

Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
26 January 2019 10:56:09

 



The rhubarb in my garden thinks spring is here - it's going great guns  !


To be honest I'd trust a load of old rhubarb to know what's going to happen  rather than various models.  I reckon it has more idea  !


Looking forward to my first crumble in about mid Feb the way things are looking


 

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Mmmm... cooked with grated orange peel or a little ginger... yum yum.



Can I suggest splitting the model output thread into two? One part for the next 5 (or maybe 7) days, the other for everything beyond that?


I'm fed up with reading through selected stellar eye candy which never verifies.


Originally Posted by: DEW 



 Agree 100%. Edge of reliable is t+72, FI is t+120 and complete bollox comes at t+144. Beyond that, it is teenage scribble.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


LOL, absolutely agree, too. Mind you, this winter does seem to have been a period of model watching where the limit of reasonable prediction is much nearer to T+0 than usual.


 


I was in Kent today, 13c and sunshine. Beautiful.
The only moan I have is that I had to drive north and leave it behind.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


And my moan is.... this mild weather is really nice, but it looks as though it's going to get cold again...


 

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl

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