I may be wrong, but, isn't this what Stephen Wilde has been saying?

See this research here -

http://noc.ac.uk/news/arctic-climate-variation-under-ancient-greenhouse-conditions

Tiny organisms preserved in marine sediments hold clues about Arctic climate variation during an ancient episode of greenhouse warming.

Based on reconstructions of Arctic climate variability in the greenhouse world of the Late Cretaceous, Southampton scientists have concluded that man-made global warming probably would not greatly change the climatic influence associated with natural modes of inter-annual climate variability such as the  El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Arctic Oscillation/ North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/ NAO).

“Even in the warm Cretaceous period, the patterns of these climatic oscillations changed over longer decadal timescales,” explained Professor Alan Kemp of the University of Southampton’s School of Ocean and Earth Science based at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton. “It is therefore difficult to predict whether anthropogenically driven warming will lead to systematic changes such as persistently milder European winters (a positive AO/ NAO) as some have suggested.”

and........................

"“A modern Arctic lacking permanent sea ice should be subject to similar influences as it was under greenhouse conditions in the Late Cretaceous,” said Kemp."

I haven't seen Stephen say anything like this. Since he thinks greenhouse gases can scarcely cause any warming I'm not sure he ever would say anything like this.

Other research I've seen suggested ENSO modality would not be affected by warming until it was at least 3C above pre-industrial temps - not withstanding some speculative research into the possibility that the recently observed El Nino 'modokis' (i.e. Central Pacific events) were somehow related to the fact that it's warmer now.

Anyway, I guess it's good to know that we'll still be subject to year after year of zonality and then clusters of frigid winters in the future

Good old NAO

In that case, hasn't Stephen been saying that ENSO etc has contributed to the warming trend, rather than anything specific about whether a warming, regardless of cause, will cause changes in natural cycles?

Not that I want to put words in his mouth... and I certainly haven't thoroughly read all of his output.

I'm sure the paper is just highlighting that there will always be 'natural variability' in the climate system? Even with temps 3c elevated we will still see Nino and Nina type events.

What the paper does not make clear is how we would see a 'Nina' with temps 3c higher than todays 'Nina'? To me it'd look like a 'Nino' and a 'Nino' would look like the biggest Super Nino ever seen!!!

It's all relative to the baseline temps?

Back to the ice. Not looking good again, can anyone wise me up as to the earliest we've called Ice Max in the past?

EDIT: And a bit of a wonder about 'winter weather' to come. If we accept the 'Overland' explaination for the cold we've been experiencing in the Northern Hemisphere then what happens when it's most of the Arctic Basin 'shedding' over the start of winter? With no opportunity for 'deep cold' to form there will be no opportunity for it's export and so an end to the 'Arctic Exports'?

I think you would still see the same El Nino/La Nina pattern, just at a higher base line.

"Ice Max" for the period 1979-2000 occurred around 6-10 March.  Aside from last year and 2003 this decade has looked much the same.

Thanks GTW!

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2011040/crefl1_143.A2011040233000-2011040233500.250m.jpg

If we look at the bottom right hand corner of the above we can see how the ice in the straights is fragmenting and melting in the area where the 'ice factory' was pushing ice out into the bering sea last year. I don't think we can rely on this area to 'plump up 'the final figures this year?

If we look at the ice edge we can see the 'milky swirls' showing melt in progress so we know that the SST's won't support ice formation and will actively erode any pack ice drifting over it.

Over the next 2 weeks the Modis suite will start to show more and more of the peripheral pack and we can start to watch for the march Full moon tides (19th) ,and maybe even the new moon a fortnight before, to see if the 'tidal forces' do indeed lead to a 'fragmentation' event?

I've dug up a 16th of Feb 'finish' in 1997 (14.8million) so maybe we will be on for an early finish to the season this year?

In 97' we had a full moon on the 20th ,this year it's the 18/19th so if this does impact the pack (by tidal 'rises' smashing/fragmenting the edges of the pack leading to drift and melt for areas drifting south) then we may well see a slow finish over the next 2 'full moons' with a few false 'peaks' and then declines around the time of the moons.

This time ,of course, the whole of the pack will be subject to the tidal forces as all of the pack is relatively 'new ' ice with much of it sub 2.5m in thickness.

Can you point me towards any studies or papers on the above?.

It sounds interesting.

Sorry Aimsir , I've never looked for any?

It was just something that became apparent (to me) when I first started using the Sat images of the packs (back in 05?) both north and south pole appeared to show fragmentation around the spring.autumn full moons (well the few days running up to full moon).

Even though we have storms for the next week hammering Bering (and WAA associated with them) and other sea areas currently under WAA I'm still expecting to see a 'spike' over the next 7 days.

looking at past years with such a 'late' spring full moon (and so a late Feb moon) we may find that this coming full moon pushes the pack into an early start to the melt season (or at least a 'halt' to growth leading to a couple of weeks of flat-line, post 'spike'. before we see ice starting to decline)

We can just sit back and wait for a few days and see what occurs?

EDIT: maybe no need to wait?

http://www.woksat.info/etctb15/tb15-1213-h-grn-n.html

pretty large leads to the right of the pole and a lot of mangling to the NE of Greenland?

I think though, a spurt might be the order of the day looking at synoptics and the lessening of the major + sst anomalies in the Baffin/Labrador recently.(a lot of it going -)

Thin ice going into summer it will be as always, I have to agree, but I can see a big increase on the way for that region before Melt.

I still find the moon effect interesting and would like to have figures as to it's influance.

Worth watching.

Well if that gentle slope is the "Fragmentation event" that the full moon tides gave us we're goosed!!!

If we find 2 weeks of slow/no growth then we will max out early March and melt will start very early!

So much for Nina' ,low sun, and PDO-ve!!!

Good old decadal-scale feedback from reduced ice cover then?! (Switch off the electricity that heated a kettle/hot plate/oven and it doesn't actually revert to its original temperature immediately you know)

As analogies go that is hardly worth contesting.

So much for Nina' ,low sun, and PDO-ve!!!

Originally Posted by: AIMSIR 

And the Moon.

Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf 

Lunatic.... 

Actually that's a good point, given Gray-Wolf's earlier comments.

The advantage of a gas hob is that it reverts to its original temperature very quickly.

Yup! Gas Hob and fan assisted electric oven.......now how did we get here?

Meanwhile (back at the Ranch)

 http://www.woksat.info/etctb20/tb20-1120-f-grn-n.html

this does seem to show that the ice (in this area) has broken into much smaller pieces? A week ago it was fragmented but into larger lozenges/strips/ Heres the same area on the 11th;

http://www.woksat.info/etctb11/tb11-1114-d-grn-n.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDr12nyuD04&feature=player_embedded

Greenland expert nattering (16th Feb) about general climate (permafrost melt, tipping points) and his work on Greenland. 40min's so you'll need a quiet moment (or two!!) but maybe enlightening for some (20 mins in to just past the hour!)

Reckons Extreme Ice Survey caught the Peterman calving.......more news later!! That'd be quite a sight!!! 4* the size of Manhattan Isl all of in one crunch!!!

Thanks for that link - I haven't seen this series before.  Watching it at the moment - very informative.

Just reached the part about the latest Amazon drought, which is probably worth a thread on its own.

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/essay_wadhams.html

And this for folk wishing to learn the basics on sea ice formation.

For those with a longer Cryospheric pedigree check out how 8 years of change has impacted 'ice types'

Most of us saw the North pole Cam 2 do the pole to past Svalbard  (half the distance the trans polar current flows) in a little over 8 months, the paper says the full Trans Arctic current trip takes 3 to 4 years!!! well before the noughties it did!!

Here's a section (cheer's NOAA!) about leads being ripped open;

Since ice has little strength under tension, this divergence can open up cracks which widen to form leads. In winter leads rapidly refreeze because of the enormous temperature difference between the atmosphere (typically -30°C) and the ocean (-1.8°C). The heat loss from a newly-opened lead can be so violent (more than 1000 W m-2) that the lead steams with frost smoke from the evaporation and condensation of the surface water. A young ice cover rapidly forms, within hours, as nilas if the surface is calm, and this cuts out the evaporation.

The heat loss from the newly formed leads....... what about the areas, now bereft of all ice come early winter, pumping that kind of energy out???