moomin might need counseling if this comes off. 

Lovely ECM tonight

The same goes for the recent poor operational runs though, surely? The ones you're happy to use to write off the month? 

Sorry but that isn't remotely true.

Unless you live next a microclimate I’m not aware of, that surely isn’t the case in June!

Ensembles look OK to me. Steady agreement as well into FI as can often be the case in a more stable summer pattern

You mean planet moomin which can be found orbiting as a binary with Aberdeen rich 

It’s extraordinary the huge differences in climate between Moomin’s back garden and Jiries’ shed, despite their being just 50 miles or so apart. 

i'd forgotten all about jires  Hope he is ok, but yeah i suppose he could be compering moomin's and Rich's

weather to to Toronto, sub saharah, or some other far flung destination

I miss Jiries. Does anyone know what’s happened to him?

GFS - after the weekend LP moves away to the NE, Azores High builds in to cover the UK by Thu 11th. The centre then moves across to Norway but by Tue 15th has linked with a revived Azores High, and this ridge sticks around to Sun 21st with occasional interference by weak (?thundery) LP from the south.

GEFS cool to Thu 11th then consistently above average temp throughout  (very warm for most of it in Scotland) and good agreement between runs, with occasional bits of rain on and off, throughout in the S but dry in Scotland ca. Mon 8th - Mon 15th.

ECM similar but with deeper LP over Portugal on Mon 15th

True and ECM and ICON similar this morning. But Ukmo and GEM have the Icelandic low over the UK in the 120h period. So squeaky bum time .

But for my money it just delays the return of summer by a few days. All roads lead to a hot easterly at the moment.

But the GEM is similar this morning to the UK and it still manages to bring in the heat by day 8. Ive said for a while now that a hot easterly is on the cards for June and it still looks like the case. The Atlantic is dead and Europe is getting very hot and humid hopefully some sultry days and big thunderstorms to come.

The one that shows the low pressure slipping off south as high pressure ridges in? 

Yes it might, but there is no support for that scenario and there is more evidence for other scenarios.

It looks a lot like you are scrabbling around to find evidence to agree with your conclusion when most of it does not.

I just remember back to winter hopes of the past when most models are showing very cold conditions, only for UKMO to break from the pack, and the concerns we all showed that it was significantly different.

Invariably, if the UKMO isn't on board, you need to take it with a huge pinch of salt, and I fear that next week will not be the dry and warm fest that some are hoping for or expecting.

I can tell you I hope GFS/ECM are on the money, but for me, the jury is very much out.

Like the other day when you took one run in isolation and picked out the CET could be between 3-4C under average. Your doing the same today and using the UKMO is isolation. I do feel you clutching at straws.