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Lionel Hutz
21 March 2020 19:23:27


Lombardy really is an anomaly in terms of deaths and I do wonder what could be behind it:



  • is it just the overwhelmed local ICUs?

  • Is/was contagion so much more widespread?

  • could it be true after all that there is a more aggressive streak of the virus? (nothing proven so far)


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I can't answer your questions but there was an interesting article in the Irish Times today(can't link at the moment, I'm afraid). It was about a solicitor and former mayor of Arklow(a small east coast town here). He was one of a party of 18 who travelled to Italy in February. Of those, 7 subsequently tested positive for the virus. Just goes to show just how infectious the virus is. 


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



David M Porter
21 March 2020 19:24:02


 


Some good points there but the opening sentence is just plain wrong. Pandora's box was already open because the Chinese visitors brought Covid-19 with them and somehow it became established in northern Italy unseen until it suddenly burst out.


I can understand the desire to play the political EU card but it's boll***s and completely fails to grasp the realities of the behaviour of this virus. If it was in northern Italy in mid-January it's inconceivable that it wasn't in other countries as well at around the same time. Chinese people didn't just visit Italy.


Ditto the comment about the US: banning flights from Europe hasn't contained their ballooning problem.  


Sorry, but this annoys me: simplistic, ill-considered actions that don't reflect the evidence.


If we wanted to make certain of keeping Covid-19 out of the UK we needed to close the borders in mid-January.  Did anyone ever think that was an appropriate response 10 weeks ago?


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I have already said in previous posts, as I think MM has too, that keeping this virus out of the UK completely  as long as it existed was not realistic or feasible. I don't think anyone here, be it MM, me or anyone else has tried to argue at any point that it was.


Where I do think MM has a fairly strong point with which I have agreed is that our goverment could and should have done more a couple of months ago to mitigate against the disease, rather than prevent it, once it reached our shores, which was always pretty inevitable. We are now trying, rather belatedly in my book, to mitigate against it now, but it is going to be one hell of an uphill battle by the look of the way things are going.


Re border closures and whether this should have been done in January: It is my own view, based on no more than plain common sense, that had this country decided in mid-January to close borders with all nations which were known to be affected by the virus at that time, we may have been facing a less grim situation than the one we are now facing. Sure, there would have been an economic hit to this country had that been done and possibly still a human cost of the virus to some extent, but I am fairly sure that both would have been rather less serious than what we are now looking at.


It's all fine and well for people to talk about going by scientific evidence, but how about applying to good old common sense too?



Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
speckledjim
21 March 2020 19:26:04


 


How does the UK trajectory look after today's update? I've not got a link to the live tracker on my phone. Gut feel is it is bad. Spain too. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


We seem to be following Italy, about 15 days behind. The mortality figures started to ramp up for Italy from the 8th March (23rd March for us). Let’s hope that we do not follow suit.


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
JHutch
21 March 2020 19:27:34


 


Well, Iceland isn't even next to an island and they've got a very high per capita infection rate so I'm not sure how much geographical location helps. Either way, we are a little behind your infection rate and we started our lockdown last weekend so hopefully the early lockdown will help. 


Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


From the article I linked to this morning about the ski resort of Ischgl


'The first sign of serious trouble emerged on March 1, when officials in Iceland discovered that 15 passengers on an Icelandair flight arriving the day before from Munich had tested positive for the coronavirus'


https://www.politico.eu/article/the-austrian-ski-town-that-spread-coronavirus-across-the-continent/


Not sure of the total number of Icelanders but maybe others were affected as well.

roadrunnerajn
21 March 2020 19:30:23


Lombardy really is an anomaly in terms of deaths and I do wonder what could be behind it:



  • is it just the overwhelmed local ICUs?

  • Is/was contagion so much more widespread?

  • could it be true after all that there is a more aggressive streak of the virus? (nothing proven so far)


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I have my own theory.


Could it be that in the lockdown areas people live in large numbers in small apartments. This could lead to them breathing in large quantities of the virus that attacks the lungs before the body can respond. 
It’s only a thought and probably totally wrong.


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
Gandalf The White
21 March 2020 19:32:30


 


Optimism kills.



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I love your unrelenting downbeat tone.


😉


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
21 March 2020 19:37:21


 


I have already said in previous posts, as I think MM has too, that keeping this virus out of the UK completely  as long as it existed was not realistic or feasible. I don't think anyone here, be it MM, me or anyone else has tried to argue at any point that it was.


Where I do think MM has a fairly strong point with which I have agreed is that our goverment could and should have done more a couple of months ago to mitigate against the disease, rather than prevent it, once it reached our shores, which was always pretty inevitable. We are now trying, rather belatedly in my book, to mitigate against it now, but it is going to be one hell of an uphill battle by the look of the way things are going.


Re border closures and whether this should have been done in January: It is my own view, based on no more than plain common sense, that had this country decided in mid-January to close borders with all nations which were known to be affected by the virus at that time, we may have been facing a less grim situation than the one we are now facing. Sure, there would have been an economic hit to this country had that been done and possibly still a human cost of the virus to some extent, but I am fairly sure that both would have been rather less serious than what we are now looking at.


It's all fine and well for people to talk about going by scientific evidence, but how about applying to good old common sense too?



Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


I don't disagree with your thoughts, David, but the core of my post was that this 'close the borders' and the apparently obligatory pop by MM at Shengen/EU was entirely misplaced. Even if the EU hadn't existed people would have passed through the borders carrying the virus.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Maunder Minimum
21 March 2020 19:40:44


 


If we wanted to make certain of keeping Covid-19 out of the UK we needed to close the borders in mid-January.  Did anyone ever think that was an appropriate response 10 weeks ago?


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes - me!


Probably Quantum as well, but he can speak for himself.


New world order coming.
Gavin D
21 March 2020 19:42:31

Daily breakdown of the data from PHE


UK data 


Daily confirmed Cases - 1,035 (+321)


Patients Recovered - 93 (+14)


Total UK deaths - 233 (+56)


English data


Top 10 Local Authorities with the highest confirmed cases



  1. Hampshire: 138

  2. Southwark: 134

  3. Lambeth: 118

  4. Westminster: 110

  5. Brent: 108

  6. Wandsworth: 107

  7. Harrow: 89

  8. Barnet: 81

  9. Croydon: 81

  10. Ealing: 80


Local Authorities with the fewest confirmed cases



  • Middlesbrough: 1

  • Blackburn with Darwen: 1

  • Kingston upon Hull, City of: 1

  • Hartlepool: 2

  • North Lincolnshire: 2

  • Stoke-on-Trent: 2

  • Peterborough: 2

  • Isle of Wight: 2

  • Gateshead: 2


Regional data



  • London - 1,965 (+377)

  • South East - 492 (+82)

  • Midlands - 491 (+102)

  • North West - 312 (+38)

  • North East and Yorkshire - 298 (+65)

  • East of England - 221 (+38)

  • South West - 216 (+47)


All changes with yesterday. Data based up to 9am today.

David M Porter
21 March 2020 19:49:01


 


I don't disagree with your thoughts, David, but the core of my post was that this 'close the borders' and the apparently obligatory pop by MM at Shengen/EU was entirely misplaced. Even if the EU hadn't existed people would have passed through the borders carrying the virus.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I agree Peter, and I will add that while I have been in agreement with MM's thoughts about the way our government and those across Europe responded to this crisis when it first arose, I certainly do not share the anti-EU feeling he has.


The problem for me is that, IMHO, our government and many across Europe were too slow to realise just how serious COVID-19 was and is and the danger it poses to human life. It hasn't just been government and politicians in many countries that have made bad decisions though.


Look at UEFA who run the European football competitions. Why in heaven's name were they still allowing CL and EL matches to take place as recently as a week-and-a-half ago, when the enormity of the crisis across Europe was plain to see for all? For example, Liverpool had a large contingent of Athletico Madrid supporters at Anfield for the return leg of their CL last 16 tie on March 11th. This despite the fact that Spanish clubs had been playing their domestic football matched behind closed doors in Spain for some time before. Where was the sense in that? Next thing is we'll be hearing about a big outbreak of COVID-19 in Liverpool and Merseyside.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Maunder Minimum
21 March 2020 19:49:25

On a positive note, G-Tech a local Worcestershire company known for its vacuum cleaners and garden equipment, is ramping up to produce 1,000 ventilators a day - it has spent the last two weeks on R & D and is now ready for final approval prior to mass production.


 


New world order coming.
Chunky Pea
21 March 2020 19:52:14


 


I wonder if that has anything to do with being an island next to an island next to the "mainland" of Europe??


Originally Posted by: westv 


Could be due to a totally inefficient and expensive health service. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Maunder Minimum
21 March 2020 19:52:19


 


I agree Peter, and I will add that while I have been in agreement with MM's thoughts about the way our government and those across Europe responded to this crisis when it first arose, I certainly do not share the anti-EU feeling he has.


The problem for me is that, IMHO, our government and many across Europe were too slow to realise just how serious COVID-19 was and is and the danger it poses to human life. It hasn't just been government and politicians in many countries that have made bad decisions though.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


It is not just the EU, but all governments across Europe including our own which failed to take the looming crisis seriously. People were still jetting off to northern Italy for skiing holidays and to Spanish resorts for sunning holidays only a few days ago - utterly insane! Plus there was the whole issue about cruises, which I highlighted repeatedly in January and February.


What was the matter with people? I cancelled my March flight to Copenhagen back in January when the Wuhan virus first started to make the news.


New world order coming.
Rob K
21 March 2020 19:54:15


 


Just watching a report on Italy , it really is horrific for them , pictures of the Army transferring bodies , bloody awful 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


That’s us by the end of the month. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
speckledjim
21 March 2020 19:55:33


 


Yes - me!


Probably Quantum as well, but he can speak for himself.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Taiwan locked their borders and now their cases are increasing whilst China are starting to work towards some sort of normality. 


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Maunder Minimum
21 March 2020 19:56:03


 


That’s us by the end of the month. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It does not have to be, if people follow the advice. For example, my sister has moved in with our mother and her sons are delivering food shopping to the doorstep - so they are completely isolated (my mother is 92).


Everyone should watch this if they have not already done so:


https://news.sky.com/video/coronavirus-italy-the-shocking-centre-of-the-covid-19-crisis-11960656


 


New world order coming.
Gandalf The White
21 March 2020 19:56:51


On a positive note, G-Tech a local Worcestershire company known for its vacuum cleaners and garden equipment, is ramping up to produce 1,000 ventilators a day - it has spent the last two weeks on R & D and is now ready for final approval prior to mass production.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


That's a brilliant effort.  


We do need more genuinely upbeat stories to mitigate the predominant gloom, IMHO.


People's mental health is also really important.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
21 March 2020 19:57:22

45-minute test approved in the USA they were begin shipping the device next week


 


 


 



Maunder Minimum
21 March 2020 19:58:00


 


Taiwan locked their borders and now their cases are increasing whilst China are starting to work towards some sort of normality. 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Hardly a disaster however and they have not suffered the economy strangling shutdown of other countries:














Plus, I don't believe any of the stats out of China.


New world order coming.
Maunder Minimum
21 March 2020 20:01:28


 


That's a brilliant effort.  


We do need more genuinely upbeat stories to mitigate the predominant gloom, IMHO.


People's mental health is also really important.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


More on that story:


https://www.keighleynews.co.uk/news/national/18322384.medical-ventilator-manufactured-matter-days/


A beautifully simple design which can be readily manufactured.


New world order coming.
speckledjim
21 March 2020 20:01:41


 


Hardly a disaster however and they have not suffered the economy strangling shutdown of other countries:














Plus, I don't believe any of the stats out of China.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Thats not the point. You can’t stop it so the best you can do is try to slow it down. If Europe had moved quicker on Italy then it would be in a much better position than it is currently 


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Phil G
21 March 2020 20:04:07
Just popped out to put some rubbish in the garage and noticeably eerily quiet out there.
Feels like a lockdown out there now!
Rob K
21 March 2020 20:06:25
Against my better judgement I bowed to family pressure to pick up some building supplies from B&Q today. It was fairly quiet for a Saturday and I tell myself that it was less hazardous than going to a supermarket, being a large warehouse where it is easy to keep clear of people. I wore gloves and the only person I got within 2 metres of was the checkout girl. I now have enough sand, paving slabs, concrete, fence posts etc to blitz the garden over the coming weeks/months, if I stay healthy.

Now that’s it. I’m keeping clear of society!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Bugglesgate
21 March 2020 20:11:21

Against my better judgement I bowed to family pressure to pick up some building supplies from B&Q today. It was fairly quiet for a Saturday and I tell myself that it was less hazardous than going to a supermarket, being a large warehouse where it is easy to keep clear of people. I wore gloves and the only person I got within 2 metres of was the checkout girl. I now have enough sand, paving slabs, concrete, fence posts etc to blitz the garden over the coming weeks/months, if I stay healthy.

Now that’s it. I’m keeping clear of society!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


My neighbour is just embarking on a major kitchen revamp.   A huge lorry from B&Q arrived today and filled their garage with the stuff.  The geezers  are supposed to arrive on Monday to fit it .... I mean, what could possibly go wrong in the current circumstances ?


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Maunder Minimum
21 March 2020 20:15:06


 


My neighbour is just embarking on a major kitchen revamp.   A huge lorry from B&Q arrived today and filled their garage with the stuff.  The geezers  are supposed to arrive on Monday to fit it .... I mean, what could possibly go wrong in the current circumstances ?


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


That certainly sounds OTT. However, there are some things which have to be done. The tyres on my car were down to the legal limit, so I had booked it in to ATS this morning to get them replaced. However, I did not have to come into close contact with anyone - left the car outside the workshop, delivered the keys and went for a solitary walk along the canal whilst they did the work.


 


New world order coming.

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