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Ulric
21 March 2020 18:36:37
The simple fact is that many won't take heed until someone they know dies. By then, it's far too late.
To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Gooner
21 March 2020 18:38:29

The simple fact is that many won't take heed until someone they know dies. By then, it's far too late.

Originally Posted by: Ulric 


And your bang on with that ….……….I'm more angry than I am frightened if I'm honest 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


xioni2
21 March 2020 18:38:38

Cuba has sent 52 ICU doctors and they will arrive in Cremona, Lombardy tomorrow. 12 million masks will arrive from China on Friday.

John p
21 March 2020 18:40:50

The simple fact is that many won't take heed until someone they know dies. By then, it's far too late.

Originally Posted by: Ulric 


Exactly that. Sad to say but if a famous celebrity (maybe in their 20’s) was to end up in intensive care, that would really focus the minds.


*Not that i’m wishing this on anybody!

Camberley, Surrey
Gandalf The White
21 March 2020 18:44:27


 


 


The age  VS death graph is a blunt tool.  The  meaningful parameter is physical condition  that  often happens  to roughly track age.


The biological condition (age) of  a 40 something that has  all kinds of underlying conditions or has let their physical condition   deteriorate  for decades through lack of   exercise, a bad diet and  being over weight will not be immune  being severely  affected by this bloody thing.  On the  other side of the coin a 60 something in good health  may fare much better.


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Agree with that. Plus, as we all know, people's bodies don't all react the same way to any given virus. There is an apparently random element in play. 


In fact I think that message applies to all of the data that we are seeing: we don't know the basis is consistent, we don't know how accurate the figures are and, obviously, we don't know the size of the unreported cases. The latter point is so critical to a proper understanding of the true spread of symptoms and the real mortality rate.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
21 March 2020 18:45:03


I think that is the cumulative total although the trend is unpleasantly clear.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yes, the morality count is cumulative on that table I posted and I should have stated that. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
xioni2
21 March 2020 18:46:01

Another 3,500 retired doctors in Italy have signed up to return at the frontline even though several of their colleagues who did this earlier on have already died from covid-19.

westv
21 March 2020 18:48:57
It's quite likely that most people won't end up knowing someone who has died which is probably part of the reason governments have been obliged to introduce measures to force people to comply.
At least it will be mild!
doctormog
21 March 2020 18:56:08


 


Yes, the morality count is cumulative on that table I posted and I should have stated that. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Isn't that a bit judgmental. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Polar Low
21 March 2020 18:58:55

My understanding is that Primark is following John Lewis and is closing it’s doors tomorrow evening at 4:30 full pay for the next 2 weeks then all reviewed 


 

xioni2
21 March 2020 18:59:13

Lombardy really is an anomaly in terms of deaths and I do wonder what could be behind it:



  • is it just the overwhelmed local ICUs?

  • Is/was contagion so much more widespread?

  • could it be true after all that there is a more aggressive streak of the virus? (nothing proven so far)


 

springsunshine
21 March 2020 19:00:42


 


I made the test count 5842.


Total today:  72818
Total yesterday:  66976


If I'm right the figures are even worse. (Fewer tests, same number of positives)


It seems to be ripping now and I think we have a catastrophe on our hands. Do hope I'm wrong.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


To help you and others keep some perspective try and remember the uk`s population is around 70 million so as a % of the total population the figures are tiny.

Brian Gaze
21 March 2020 19:01:47


Lombardy really is an anomaly in terms of deaths and I do wonder what could be behind it:



  • is it just the overwhelmed local ICUs?

  • Is/was contagion so much more widespread?

  • could it be true after all that there is a more aggressive streak of the virus? (nothing proven so far)


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


How does the UK trajectory look after today's update? I've not got a link to the live tracker on my phone. Gut feel is it is bad. Spain too. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
21 March 2020 19:02:32

It's quite likely that most people won't end up knowing someone who has died which is probably part of the reason governments have been obliged to introduce measures to force people to comply.

Originally Posted by: westv 


Yes, at the moment the numbers as a ratio to population are minuscule and anyone who doesn't understand how the virus spreads will be wondering what the fuss is about; that's the challenge.


Take my area as an example (we live in Cambs but the other two are within a mile or so either side): 


Cambridgeshire: 1 in 40,000


Essex: 1 in 35,000


Hertfordshire: 1 in 20,000


Bearing in mind that Essex and Herts extend into th London suburbs and include many commuter towns, the risk is probably lower than those raw numbers.


If you were told your chances of something were 1 in 40,000 would you instinctively change your behaviour?  That's like saying if you go to Premier league football match maybe one person in the crowd will have it.


Let's say there are ten unrecognised cases to each reported one: that's still 1 in 4,000.  


 


I'm not playing down the risk, just highlighting the challenge of convincing sceptical people to take the right steps. 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
21 March 2020 19:03:06


 


To help you and others keep some perspective try and remember the uk`s population is around 70 million so as a % of the total population the figures are tiny.


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


No disrespect but I think that is missing the point. At best it suggests there could still be time for a Wuhan lockdown. Will Boris go for it?

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Chunky Pea
21 March 2020 19:03:46


 


Isn't that a bit judgmental. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 



What am I like?! 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Lionel Hutz
21 March 2020 19:05:55
The figure for new infections in the RoI today was 109. That's against 126 yesterday and over 190 on Thursday. Those are encouraging figures for us in so far as the trend is downward. Perhaps we may escape the worst of it.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



xioni2
21 March 2020 19:07:41

The figure for new infections in the RoI today was 109. That's against 126 yesterday and over 190 on Thursday. Those are encouraging figures for us in so far as the trend is downward. Perhaps we may escape the worst of it.

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


Optimism kills.


roadrunnerajn
21 March 2020 19:09:40


Breakdown of the Italy deaths by age group.


https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_21marzo%20ITA.pdf


 


Have heard numerous reports of people heading off to their second/holiday homes to wait it out (taking their stockpiled food with them?). Makes some sense but if these people do get into trouble then they may find the local hospitals aren't equipped to deal with these extra people? (although in summer there would be loads of people in these areas I suppose)


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


We do just about cope in the summer - but they’re not on ventilators then.

Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
westv
21 March 2020 19:11:04

The figure for new infections in the RoI today was 109. That's against 126 yesterday and over 190 on Thursday. Those are encouraging figures for us in so far as the trend is downward. Perhaps we may escape the worst of it.

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


I wonder if that has anything to do with being an island next to an island next to the "mainland" of Europe??

At least it will be mild!
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 March 2020 19:11:50


 


Some good points there but the opening sentence is just plain wrong. Pandora's box was already open because the Chinese visitors brought Covid-19 with them and somehow it became established in northern Italy unseen until it suddenly burst out.


I can understand the desire to play the political EU card but it's boll***s and completely fails to grasp the realities of the behaviour of this virus. If it was in northern Italy in mid-January it's inconceivable that it wasn't in other countries as well at around the same time. Chinese people didn't just visit Italy.


Ditto the comment about the US: banning flights from Europe hasn't contained their ballooning problem.  


Sorry, but this annoys me: simplistic, ill-considered actions that don't reflect the evidence.


If we wanted to make certain of keeping Covid-19 out of the UK we needed to close the borders in mid-January.  Did anyone ever think that was an appropriate response 10 weeks ago?


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

  Spot on in my opinion.  The horse has bolted long before it was noticed!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gavin D
21 March 2020 19:16:19
Sainsbury's will now be opening 07:30 to 08:00 for NHS workers every morning Monday to Saturday the change is due to concerns raised regarding NHS workers mixing with the elderly between 8am and 9am as previously planned.

NHS workers will have to provide ID to be allowed into stores
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 March 2020 19:16:19


 


In the bluntest of terms it seemingly really is "survival of the fittest". Horrible but biology at its rawest.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 Agree with that!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Lionel Hutz
21 March 2020 19:17:34


 


I wonder if that has anything to do with being an island next to an island next to the "mainland" of Europe??


Originally Posted by: westv 


Well, Iceland isn't even next to an island and they've got a very high per capita infection rate so I'm not sure how much geographical location helps. Either way, we are a little behind your infection rate and we started our lockdown last weekend so hopefully the early lockdown will help. 

Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Gavin D
21 March 2020 19:19:23


 


How does the UK trajectory look after today's update? I've not got a link to the live tracker on my phone. Gut feel is it is bad. Spain too. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Based on deaths only 


 


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