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Darren S
15 April 2020 22:22:48


 


Yes and the other problem with antibody testing is the accuracy. Even 90% accuracy would mean that testing 1m people would leave 100,000 people misdiagnosed making a 'certificate policy' very difficult as the epidemic could be restarted by just a few thousand people with false positives. I think we need closer to 99% accuracy, but I don't know if that will be feasible ever.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Rutherford Health that I mentioned, are testing everyone in all of their centres, who were also tested with the traditional swap method to see if they currently had the virus. They said the results are indicating that the antibody test is accurate enough.


But as I mentioned, all forms of test will not be able to detect those people who don't have antibodies but can't catch it. Going back to the Diamond Princess again, there was one guest, Alan Steele, who tested positive and had no symptoms but was taken off to a Japanese hospital. His new bride repeatedly tested negative and had no symptoms; and as they were on their honeymoon in a ship's cabin, they certainly weren't social distancing. So is she likely to catch it from someone else?


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
glenogle
15 April 2020 22:35:54


 


I believe Germany (Bavaria) will start doing this and they will be testing the same group weekly.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


In the same way they get tv ratings each week.  Just have a test group that's representative of society or representative of whatever demographics they want.


Doesnt mean they need to pick 100k random people every day. Can just be the same 100k sampled regularly


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m aslĀ 
glenogle
15 April 2020 22:47:01


This gives both hope and concern:


b) This will make producing a vaccine difficult, because they could test the vaccine on volunteers, expose them to the virus, or a variant, and find that those volunteers don't catch the virus or get antibodies. But is that because of the virus, or for natural reasons?


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


 


My own underlying suspicion is that a particular medicine or group of medicines in treating one ailment has inadvertently made these people more susceptible to catching and developing covid to a more serious degree, hence it affecting mostly people with underlying health conditions. 


Most medicines have side effects and people often have to take medication to treat the side effects of their medication. This just might be a further example.


I would be keen to see deaths and hospitalisations vs particular meds as a chart to see if their was a trend, but we know there is not a hope in hell of that data ever becoming public if it is available.


 


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m aslĀ 
Saint Snow
15 April 2020 23:06:19


 


 


My own underlying suspicion is that a particular medicine or group of medicines in treating one ailment has inadvertently made these people more susceptible to catching and developing covid to a more serious degree, hence it affecting mostly people with underlying health conditions. 


Most medicines have side effects and people often have to take medication to treat the side effects of their medication. This just might be a further example.


I would be keen to see deaths and hospitalisations vs particular meds as a chart to see if their was a trend, but we know there is not a hope in hell of that data ever becoming public if it is available.


 


Originally Posted by: glenogle 


 


It's an interesting hypothesis.


The medical/scientific focus now is rightly on developing 1)effective treatment, 2) accurate testing; 3) a vaccine. But once this has settled down, I'll be fascinated to see if they can learn why the virus affects some so severely and others so little (or not at all). I know 'underlying medical conditions' and age are the two obvious factors, but there's enough cases of severe reaction in people for whom neither applies that there must be something else (even if it's just initial/ongoing viral load)



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gandalf The White
15 April 2020 23:06:56


 


I guess they are quite similar, but there are also important differences? Sleeping and toileting together must make it much easier for the virus to pass along?


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Yes, but I’d have thought the significantly greater socialising and attendance at entertainment events on cruises more than made up for the relatively lower risks associated with sleeping and ‘toileting’?


Location: South Cambridgeshire
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The Beast from the East
15 April 2020 23:20:58


 


 


Is there no  limits to this man's idiocy ?  


... I was going  to add something else, but it would probably get me banned ......


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


At press briefing he pushed the conspiracy theory that this was released by accident from a Wuhan lab


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
15 April 2020 23:31:52


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 April 2020 05:11:39




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

  What a plonker!  She’s right, people should know the facts!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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