Trump suspends WHO funding as global deaths pass 125,000

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/15/coronavirus-live-news-trump-suspends-who-funding-as-global-deaths-pass-125000

Onwards...

This is an interesting read and explains why a lifting of lockdowns could not ends well:

https://centerforinquiry.org/blog/its-the-math-stupid/

Yes, it explains the obvious rather well.

We cannot get rid of Covid-19 any time soon, therefore the only thing that matters is controlling the death rate, making sure that our hospitals don't get overwhelmed at any stage.

The only way out of it is via herd immunity, whether by letting everyone get it (assuming the antibodies last 18-24 months, as with other coronaviruses), or via a vaccine.

Anything else is doomed to failure as it leaves populations vulnerable: all it takes then is one infected person and the whole cycle starts again (as seen in the likes of Hokkaido). It's a complete fallacy to think you can keep it out forever, in the same way you can't keep spiders out of garden sheds! The 14-day incubation period is the real problem here, as it means spreading is inevitable as people won't realise they have it.

I woudln't want to be the one who puts a cash value on a life, but that's exactly what the government will have to do...

At least with all this we have the benefit of being a couple of weeks behind our European neighbours, so we can see how much of an effect their policies will have. I fully expect a more deadly second wave during the autumn and winter, FWIW, followed by a vaccine next year.

This link is definitely to be avoided by those in the Forum Arms whose worries are accentuated by UIA posts! It's may not be too far out, as far as it goes; but on a quick skim  the ability of most of the population to recover from infection was almost invisible amongst all the doom 'n gloom.

More immediately back on the streets. a couple of men in Brighton are posing as plain-clothes polices and levying 'fines' for ASB, demanding cash on the spot. The police, of course, would just hand over a notice to pay later e.g. through a bank, and never accept cash in hand.

Yes, while logically and mathematically sound that study largely ignores behavioural and biological factors. It is not as simple as plugging things into a mathematical model and saying simple maths will show you what will happen.

No, it wasn't an error of judgement. Far from it.

He was clear that he wasn't asking for timings but that people needed to be told the broad outlines for how we get out of lockdown. He said people need to be given hope and he is absolutely correct in that.

Coronavirus requires coordinated global action and nations working together to ensure each other's safety. Cooperation is the key.

Brexit requires open borders but egregious regulatory discontinuities designed for arbitrage against poorer nations. Thus, the two prime directives are diametrically opposed and it is no wonder that the party formerly known as the Conservatives are struggling with this.

To them, cooperation on pandemic control looks like communism and they are putting a lot of thought and energy into blaming communists for the virus. They are stuck in what seems to them like a hopeless paradox of conflicting requirements. For this reason, HMG aren't able to form a plan or take any genuinely effective action.

Yes, I agree.

But the point about needing zero cases to eliminate the virus before relaxing the restrictions was a valid one. The trouble is that with asymptomatic cases how will we ever know that we’re there, short of a 100% lockdown - which isn’t going to happen.

Oh, I don’t have an issue with giving people hope but, as has been shown here this morning, hope is in very short supply until we have a vaccine.

Realistically this needs a Churchillian speech talking about this being a long haul. IMO people need to realise this is a battle that will last at least into 2021.

False hope would be far, far worse.

Before we run towards the herd we need to establish what is happening. It would be utter madness to assume "herd immunity" (Horrible phrase - perhaps it sounds better in French?) at the moment.

Coronavirus: Fear of reinfection grows after 124 South Koreans test positive for second time

South Korea has identified a growing number of people who make an apparent recovery from the coronavirus only to test positive again, raising fears that the virus is capable of striking the same person more than once.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-fear-of-reinfection-grows-after-124-south-koreans-test-positive-for-second-time-xrj6pp5z6

It will last far into 2021, I agree with you there, Peter. Like Brian, I'm not convinced that a vaccine is coming any time soon and that if/when it does, that it will be particularly effective.

The problem is that people will increasingly start to flout the lockdown if they don't have hope. HMG can supply that hope by saying, "look, we don't have a timescale to give you, but when it is clear that the number of infections is declining, we will start to lift some of the restrictions. Schools, garden centres, the coast..." Whatever, they will have an exit strategy being prepared and they should give the people some idea of what it will look like.

As everyone knows the Germans are testing about 3x as many people per million as the UK is. What is less widely known is that despite the apparently shambolic response by Trump and the US have tested close to 2x as many people per million as we are. Remember the US was slow out of the block so in the last two weeks the difference in test numbers could be even more marked .

Ironically Trump is getting taken to the cleaners for his response and is being held to account by journalists. In the UK it seems to me there is far too much "toadying" going on. 

Britain has carried out about 5,400 tests per million of population.

United States is at 8,894 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/we-were-too-slow-on-coronavirus-testing-admits-adviser-as-criticism-mounts-0hnz97sxr

That is true, Caz, and in a paradoxical way our predators, parasites and pathogens are, in a terrible and relentless fashion, our best allies. They drive co-evolution and in many ways help to achieve an ecological homeostasis. "Consumers" would not benefit from wiping out their own food sources or means of reproduction and distribution, but we are in a kind of "biological arms race". This takes nothing away from the fear and grief caused by our common danger and individual loss - but it is a natural process outside our take on ethics or compassion. No doubt some readers will have reflected on the question of how much our way of life has contributed to our apparent vulnerability as a species to a pandemic.

Roger

The only European neighbour we are ahead of in testing is France. The Irish have done 3 times as much for example.

GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi who collectively are global leaders in vaccinations who are teaming up on this have said:

"We believe that if we’re successful we’ll be able to make hundreds of millions of doses annually by the end of next year."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/glaxosmithkline-in-deal-with-rival-sanofi-to-make-coronavirus-vaccine-on-huge-scale-ls7tswm9h

Very significant IMO. It's ok for rocket scientists to say they can do this in a few months with an "80%" level of confidence but IME very intelligent people are just as likely to be over optimistic and poor at predicting timescales as us lesser mortals. 

According to The Times:

Britain has carried out about 5,400 tests per million of population. France and Sweden are at around the same level.

Britain is at 5637, France 5114 and Sweden 5416 according to:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?

Perhaps, but at least they understand the science at a significantly deeper level.

Two things in there.

I imagine the US did not start from just one case but was added to in various places what with all the open travel at the time.

Apparently there's two choices. It's a no brainer it's option 2 the world shuts down for 4-6 weeks. As long as you got it to synchronise.