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Brian Gaze
27 April 2020 05:50:33

I still don't understand why the UK government is holding back on antibody tests. Even if their accuracy is between 85% and 90% they would  provide guidance on how many people have been infected. There is a view, mainly held by nationalist Brexitiers, that about 60% of the UK population have already had this. I remain VERY doubtful and think the infection rate in the UK will be between 4% and 10% now.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gooner
27 April 2020 06:17:06

60% ………………..never in a million years 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


doctormog
27 April 2020 06:29:29
Brian did you just entirely make up that statistic or is it from a survey somewhere?
Brian Gaze
27 April 2020 06:34:34

Brian did you just entirely make up that statistic or is it from a survey somewhere?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I know the Oxford Uni study has been taken out of context but time and again I see Twitter Brexitiers proclaiming that most people have already had the infection. 


I'm not dismissing their views but we must test to establish the true situation. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Heavy Weather 2013
27 April 2020 06:42:31
I have a feeling that Boris will address the nation this evening and outline an exit plan out of lockdown.

The tactics of all ministers has been clear. Hold back from any formal plan until the PM can deliver from his own mouth.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
xioni2
27 April 2020 06:52:13

The FT has started plotting excess death data for various countries and some areas show huge increases. Their analysis seems to confirm that excess deaths is the best proxy for the real total number of deaths from CV19 as the regional variations even within the same countries are huge.


Look at the huge variation within England and Wales, the huge increases in London, New York, N.Italy etc. The Guayas province in Equador has reported just 245 CV19 deaths, yet they have 10,100 excess deaths.


 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 April 2020 06:55:15

I think mention of Brexiteers and Remainers should be banned from this thread, unless and until there's a reliable published survey linking opinions over Europe with opinions on coronavirus. Bringing in Euro attitudes just confuses the issue and opens up old antipathies.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Roger Parsons
27 April 2020 07:11:09


I think mention of Brexiteers and Remainers should be banned from this thread, unless and until there's a reliable published survey linking opinions over Europe with opinions on coronavirus. Bringing in Euro attitudes just confuses the issue and opens up old antipathies.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


I agree, DEW - use of the terms was always likely to be loaded if not downright insulting - ammunition for the passive-aggressive or nasty. They were unpleasant and unwelcome even when vaguely relevant - they are certainly not relevant now. Or here.


R.


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
speckledjim
27 April 2020 07:14:16


I think mention of Brexiteers and Remainers should be banned from this thread, unless and until there's a reliable published survey linking opinions over Europe with opinions on coronavirus. Bringing in Euro attitudes just confuses the issue and opens up old antipathies.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Agreed, it just winds people up. Let’s stick to what is relevant.


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Maunder Minimum
27 April 2020 07:14:40

The Third World and COVID-19 - from the BBC Website:


"Singapore is seeing a massive spike in coronavirus infections, mainly among migrant workers from Bangladesh and India.


With thousands of them testing positive, mostly with mild or no symptoms, authorities are scrambling to build quarantine facilities to house them."



  • there are two factors of note in this report:



  1. Thousands of migrant workers from Bangladesh and India testing positive confirms the impression of massive under-reporting and under-testing in those countries.

  2. That deaths and hospitalisation rates across the Third World are comparatively low is noteworthy. It is apparent that under-reporting is as endemic as the virus across many regions, including the Indian Sub-Continent and Africa, so why are death rates low? All we can do is speculate as follows: birth rates are very high so the demographics are markedly different from European populations - we know young people are less affected by COVID-19 than old people. Obesity is a factor and obesity is a rich country problem on the whole. General exposure to pathogens - from birth, people in poor countries are exposed to far more pathogens than people in pampered rich countries - it is likely that leads to a more robust immune system more capable of dealing even with novel pathogens like COVID-19. Finally, lack of reporting will extend to death certificates too, so it is very likely that many COVID-19 deaths are not being reported as such.


Anybody care to add to the above?


New world order coming.
speckledjim
27 April 2020 07:15:50
Great news from New Zealand. They will be keenly watched by the rest of the world as they begin to open their borders again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52436658 
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
xioni2
27 April 2020 07:18:56


 I remain VERY doubtful and think the infection rate in the UK will be between 4% and 10% now.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


My guesstimate is that at least 95% of the UK population hasn't had the virus.

doctormog
27 April 2020 07:21:29

Great news from New Zealand. They will be keenly watched by the rest of the world as they begin to open their borders again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52436658 

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Is there an indication of when they are planning to reopen their borders?


Joe Bloggs
27 April 2020 07:24:34

Great news from New Zealand. They will be keenly watched by the rest of the world as they begin to open their borders again.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52436658


Note that their lockdown is only being eased slightly and their border remains closed.


New Zealand has shown an exemplary national response to this pandemic under the fantastic leadership of Jacinda Ardern. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Ulric
27 April 2020 07:24:43


I think mention of Brexiteers and Remainers should be banned from this thread, unless and until there's a reliable published survey linking opinions over Europe with opinions on coronavirus. Bringing in Euro attitudes just confuses the issue and opens up old antipathies.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


From a purely statistical point of view, I think the assumption that the variables are independent could be rapidly dismissed by a standard test.


"As soon as we abandon our own reason, and are content to rely on authority, there is no end to our troubles." - Bertrand Russell
https://postimg.cc/5XXnTCGn 
Maunder Minimum
27 April 2020 07:26:49


The FT has started plotting excess death data for various countries and some areas show huge increases. Their analysis seems to confirm that excess deaths is the best proxy for the real total number of deaths from CV19 as the regional variations even within the same countries are huge.


Look at the huge variation within England and Wales, the huge increases in London, New York, N.Italy etc. The Guayas province in Equador has reported just 245 CV19 deaths, yet they have 10,100 excess deaths.


 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Fascinating set of graphs. Given lack of testing and inaccurate death certificates, excess deaths is going to provide the clearest indication of COVID-19 deaths. It would be nice if infection rates could be extrapolated from that, but it is difficult to draw firm conclusions since the CFR is going to vary enormously from one country to another for a whole host of reasons.


New world order coming.
xioni2
27 April 2020 07:27:19


Is there an indication of when they are planning to reopen their borders?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


My guess is that they won't fully re-open their borders before vaccination.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 April 2020 07:29:41


I think mention of Brexiteers and Remainers should be banned from this thread, unless and until there's a reliable published survey linking opinions over Europe with opinions on coronavirus. Bringing in Euro attitudes just confuses the issue and opens up old antipathies.


Originally Posted by: DEW 

 Totally agree.  I do ignore posts with such reference but it puts me off posting when people are put into stigma boxes!  This virus has nothing to do with Brexit or being divided in fighting it!  It is a very serious subject and we’re all in the same boat, so we all need to pull together with it.


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
27 April 2020 07:29:53


I still don't understand why the UK government is holding back on antibody tests. Even if their accuracy is between 85% and 90% they would  provide guidance on how many people have been infected. There is a view, mainly held by nationalist Brexitiers, that about 60% of the UK population have already had this. I remain VERY doubtful and think the infection rate in the UK will be between 4% and 10% now.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Data on randomised testing to establish the infection rate seems curiously hard to come by.


On the Diamond Princess and Theodore Roosevelt - untypical closed environments - where most on board were tested it was found to be 17% infection rate at the date of testing.


Not a lot of light but this from New Scientist is worth a read


What the first coronavirus antibody testing surveys can tell us


https://www.newscientist.com/article/2241313-what-the-first-coronavirus-antibody-testing-surveys-can-tell-us/


 


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
speckledjim
27 April 2020 07:30:48


 


Is there an indication of when they are planning to reopen their borders?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


No, but it will be an interesting time to see if they import any new cases.


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Brian Gaze
27 April 2020 07:32:43


I think mention of Brexiteers and Remainers should be banned from this thread, unless and until there's a reliable published survey linking opinions over Europe with opinions on coronavirus. Bringing in Euro attitudes just confuses the issue and opens up old antipathies.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


There would seem to be a correlation between people who think the infection rate is currently over 50% and those who dispute global warming and support Brexit. I make no judgement on them as individuals. However, whilst Brexit and global warming can be argued about over a period of years we can not afford to be side-tracked with corona virus because the consequences could be felt in weeks or months. Therefore, I continue to think antibody testing is urgently required despite its current shortcomings. It's worth remembering the government is offering self swabbing antigen tests already. They are also problematic and have their shortcomings for different reasons. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 April 2020 07:32:48


The Third World and COVID-19 - from the BBC Website:


"Singapore is seeing a massive spike in coronavirus infections, mainly among migrant workers from Bangladesh and India.


With thousands of them testing positive, mostly with mild or no symptoms, authorities are scrambling to build quarantine facilities to house them."



  • there are two factors of note in this report:



  1. Thousands of migrant workers from Bangladesh and India testing positive confirms the impression of massive under-reporting and under-testing in those countries.

  2. That deaths and hospitalisation rates across the Third World are comparatively low is noteworthy. It is apparent that under-reporting is as endemic as the virus across many regions, including the Indian Sub-Continent and Africa, so why are death rates low? All we can do is speculate as follows: birth rates are very high so the demographics are markedly different from European populations - we know young people are less affected by COVID-19 than old people. Obesity is a factor and obesity is a rich country problem on the whole. General exposure to pathogens - from birth, people in poor countries are exposed to far more pathogens than people in pampered rich countries - it is likely that leads to a more robust immune system more capable of dealing even with novel pathogens like COVID-19. Finally, lack of reporting will extend to death certificates too, so it is very likely that many COVID-19 deaths are not being reported as such.


Anybody care to add to the above?


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

I can’t add anything but your theories make sense. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Ulric
27 April 2020 07:36:20


 


My guesstimate is that at least 95% of the UK population hasn't had the virus.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I agree. My own rough estimate is that between 3 and 4% of the population have been infected. That's based on some very round numbers and a few assumptions which may or may not be borne out in the end.


"As soon as we abandon our own reason, and are content to rely on authority, there is no end to our troubles." - Bertrand Russell
https://postimg.cc/5XXnTCGn 
xioni2
27 April 2020 07:37:10


Fascinating set of graphs. Given lack of testing and inaccurate death certificates, excess deaths is going to provide the clearest indication of COVID-19 deaths. It would be nice if infection rates could be extrapolated from that, but it is difficult to draw firm conclusions since the CFR is going to vary enormously from one country to another for a whole host of reasons.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I agree with all your points.


In terms of Joe's question yesterday about hot and humid places, Jakarta in Indonesia is another such place that has seen a big rise (+47%) in excess deaths. 

Heavy Weather 2013
27 April 2020 07:38:41
Boris Johnson to make statement to country from Downing Street this morning.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
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