And massively different to what the Beeb think and the Met 

If youve seen the beeb video forecasts over the past day or so  theres been some definite hints of this situation developing. 

When ever they say a battleground is forming... says theres some wiggle room in their forecast

Well, Im sticking with my contention that GEM has this pattern nailed, for me, run of the winter so far and the fun starts at 144.  As I have consistently said, HP to our N/NE will be the controlling influence before the end of January.  UKMO looks to be changing its tune in GEM's direction too, although bottles it at 144.

Essentially anything can happen after 120 and FI is close, but wishfully-thinking, GEM is on it. Undercutting, a STJ and highs to the N seem the way things should go

I shouldn't laugh but that's pretty amazing. Has the whole of Aberdeen been fitted with underground heating?

Not on todays forecasts , not even a mention from Thomas Sch whereas as Nick Miller yesterday was a tad cautious 

Its the force-field generated by Richard

Stunning GEM,  shows what the smallest amount of heights just to our north can do. Sliders and then an snowy easterly. 

It seems the logical progression IF the high to the N can hold at 120/144.

Feb 1991 only had 1045mb over Scandinavia.

GFS goes for 1055mb

Just what the south would want for sustained cold and guaranteed snow: - The issue with the last easterly early January was that it was very slack and too far west  -ie over North sea and Scandinavia wasn't cold enough but now it is and if we get a chart like this - then we could be in for some seriously cold weather - origins of air comes from the Urals - if this came off but i am just comparing the 12z run with the 06z run and i see there is a substantial flip:

Let's just hope it isn't a cold outlier and or this is continued in the para/control as well as in the 18z run later:

All in FI rang but contrasting purposes only - either way both look cold!

06z @ 342z

12z @ 336:

Yes definitely looks plausible certainly over GFS February 1986 redux.

Both Icon and GEM keep the snow away from the Merseyside/Manchester conurbation (barring some areas round Manchester with elevation)

Not happy.

Yes, but I feel these scenarios are a perpetual jam tomorrow at the moment, can't get them out of T168+.

if it came off could be better and looks like a northern reload. Perhaps would could get luck with the effects of a topsy turvy atmosphere

Low pressure over southern Europe and HP over Scandinavia = air coming in from the URals - not easy way out of that but that's a chart to bank and will give proper sustained cold and longer lasting snow too.

Compared to 18th February 2018:

The heavy lifting on the GEM is at 120/144, still way too early*  but encouraging.  (*Rather large model divergence in evidence at 144 this evening.) 

Although GEM 168-192 would be fun.

Para goes for a southerly tracking low on 30th:

But looks like a cold rain event?

As WI has said the important bit is at 120h. But I'd agree it's an outside bet at the moment.  We could do with the ECM showing something similar later.

The para does give a bit of snow to the SW on the 30th and then again on the 31st.

Argh yes I see that now and then turns back to rain - i am not use to using meteo site as yet - sure I will in due course.

Finally - JFF we see the BFTE - he looks scary doesn't he with purple eyes?

Lovely view that, well and truly blocked. With PV almost split. I think that would have legs if verified. Sadly a 1 in 10 shot at best you would have thought.

CMC looks very snowy at a quick glance.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gem.aspx?run=12&charthour=180&chartname=ukpreciptyperatec&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type%20rate