I think that's it for another year if I'm honest Rob

Amusing little tease from the ECM 240 chart tonight

Wouldn't rule it out, but to be honest the last few days have put me firmly in spring mode. Sunshine and 20C pronto, please, not more cold!

Yup. We had 14 inches or so here. Strathyre a bit of a snow magnet further north had near 1.5 -2ft from that single event.

I was nightshift when it happened and remember starting my shift just as it started to snow and it pretty much ended as I was attempting to get home the next morning.  

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Have you ever visited a pub and wondered if it is closed, because you re the only customer and the place seems like the Marie Celeste ? That’s how it feels tonight....yet the ECM is drifting back in alignment to Qs theory. Ok not too well supported, but its one of the “big two” and the models do seem all over place - like the supply of vaccine. Plenty of cold options though, and I’m still thinking the cold returns by the 9th, though the ECM suggests the 7th - judging by tonight’s output. We’ll see if it goes by tomorrow...

Well, maybe a chance for the cold to return; week 2 in http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 offers the chance of something sneaking in from the north - and GFS hasn't been a model of consistency recently, as you might say. For this morning:

GFS - after small blip today, HP re-establishes from the SW and hangs around to Sat 6th albeit a tendency to drift S-wards with time. Then a developing LP runs across the UK Sun 7th and deepens over the Baltic Tue 9th; yesterday's second LP on that date has been replaced with some stronger N-lies which soon move off into the Continent in favour of W-lies for the UK - just a hint of a reload Sat 13th.

GEFS - temps above average, sometimes very mild to Fri 5th; then with less certainty, mostly a little below average to Sat 13th though both op & control distinctly cold around Thu 11th and other cold outliers also appearing. Mainly dry but some runs show substantial rain on occasion after 5th.

ECM similar to GFS though the HP tends to ridge N-wards rather than S-wards at first; by Sun 7th the HP has retreated S-wards but there's no LP as in GFS on that date, just a minor mobile trough from the W.

Be a shock to the system after the las few days ............long way off 

Siberian high update. Yeh its not great

Canadian cold pool was a big spoiler in the end. The cold air asociated with the siberian high is far out of reach in the far east.

The siberian high is in a decent position but the true cold air is not in W siberia anymore. Still a notable cold spell is still possible. And perhaps the cold in W siberia could intensify a bit before it moves towards E europe.

Good timing!

Hadn't known them long then 

I was being posh.

I mean the good news is that we are probably gonna get a cold spell.

And hopefully a new cold pool can develop under the cold core low in W siberia. That siberian cold pool is long gone though, its in the far east now.

So yes as I feared, not a bitterly cold scandi high with a siberian origin.

Instead a greenland high with a more arctic based origin (that happens to take a pitstop in W siberia)

Just noticed there is XMAG for a retrogressive ridge from the UK to Greenland/ Iceland at 144 hours.

Hopefully it will serve to serve to import some clean and dry polar air rather than anything miserably wintry.

There is a general tendency for the ridge to collapse soon after but its certainly one to watch.