Onwards...

I have been sledging all day.

I require a model summary.

Pretty Please

WI

ICON and GFS both bin the mild incursion and push the cold air back west. GFS goes for another megabeast.

GEM is the grinch and sinks the block

UKMO looks a bit dicey but might pull through from 144hrs.

0C line never reaches this part of the country on the GEFS mean, at least out to day 10.

Good conditions down there today?

Thanks Buddy!  Much appreciated. 

240hr mean GEFS chart, that's solid Scandi high support there!

GFS keeping things further West in the Atlantic making huge differences 

One for the Scottish crew

upgrades so far this evening. but is that what we want?

Potentially deadly if those deep cold uppers make it across. 

People are struggling to afford to heat their homes as it is and millions are dependent on food banks thanks to 11 years of Tory oppression and lies

Aberdeen would surely get some "interesting" weather out of that - which makes it a highly unlikely outcome of course.

Easterlies are seldom as severe as they look on the charts. The strong wind keeps the temperature up. To be honest it can get a lot colder here under bog standard calm HP in winter when -8 or -10 overnight are not uncommon

Nice to see that GEFS has finally caught up with what ECM has been showing for the past couple of days temperature wise.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Those are the T2Ms for London from the 12z GEFS. Looks like some places (if not London itself) will be in for the best part of a week of ice days.

EPS ensembles show similar - here's the link to the 0z ones, you can use the link to access the 12z ones around 8 PM tonight.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/web/classical_meteogram?facets=undefined&time=2021020700,0,2021020700&epsgram=classical_10d&lat=51.5084&lon=-0.125533&station_name=London,%20United%20Kingdom&altitude=21

One difference, at least at my coastal location, is in the way the cold penetrates more in an easterly.

Get a standard frosty night under a high, you might get -3C (or -5C if you're really lucky). Still winds, warm house.

On the other hand, even with the heating running 24/7 at the moment the strong to near gale force NE'ly here has sapped the heat from the house, even though it's only been hovering around zero since late morning.

It's exceptionally rare here to get subzero temperatures for more than a short while with a breeze, let alone strong winds. The only times it happens are during an easterly. Things may be different inland, mind!

(Side note: the Beast in 2018 gave -14C here, cold enough that the old "chuck a mug of boiling water in the air" trick half-worked. It also gave the UK's coldest temperature that winter to Brogdale, which also recorded -14C. Those cold uppers, snow cover, clear skies and a few calm hours had an extraordinary effect).

Wow, the 850mb ensemble doesn't look that different from the last set but the 2m temps are hugely colder (for Hampshire)

And yes Darren, point taken about the penetrating frost. Although the true cold hasn't really set in here yet.

ECM looking less robust at 120 hours than the GFS it has to be said.

GEFS out now and the mild bump next weekend has been eroded quite a bit

2m temps here are a big notch down on the 6Z in the medium term.

Yes it was a very interesting forecast and presented the possibilities nicely.

With charts like this at one week out, I’m not surprised. 

Not to me it doesn't, looks like the high is going north and the jet heading underneath. GEM had it riding over the top.

Fear not. It's looking nice and robust again by 168 hours.

ECM looks good to me 

Indeed. Nicely placed at 192 hours albeit the cold pool is not nearly as beastly as the GFS!

You know we have been spoilt by the GFS when an easterly with -12C 850s along the south coast next week looks rather tame.

At 240 it looks like retrogressing to Greenland, perhaps, and then round we go again...

A prime setup for some very low temperatures up north under that high I would have thought.