Actully 8-10 over most of central & southern England. With slack winds & sunshine that could easily see temperatures 24-28C range at this time of year. 

Whereabouts you going, Rob?

Cambrian mountains, smack in the middle.

Looking at the 6Z Arpege run the difference is astonishing, much less heavy rain. Comparing 72hr 6Z with 78hr 0Z here is chalk and cheese.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=330

WXmaps showing a 'nicely stratified' distribution of temps by week 2: Cool N of a line through the Channel to the Baltic, warm N of the Alps, hot S of the Alps. Rain mostly across central areas of Europe though NW Scotland gets its usual share.

GFS - HP keeps trying to move into the UK but doen't look convincing until 1030mb end of run Sun 4th (and even then LP still close to the SE). In the meantime, one Atlantic LP or another keeps popping up and moving near to or  into the UK with cool weather  - notably 1000mb W approaches Sun 20th, 1010mb N Ireland Sun 27th

GEFS - temps, most runs close to norm through to Sun 4th (a slight dip to a little below early next week). Episodes of heavy rain in the S to Wed 23rd, occasional smaller amounts thereafter; in the N small amounts throughout. In both areas one or two runs show a one-off spectacular spike.

ECM - resembles GFS at first but the LP around Sun 27th isn't there (though ECM showed it yesterday) but is replaced by slack LP over Biscay and warmer conditions over he UK

Much more settled all round this morning especially the ECM which is a great run from day 5 onwards. 

You cannot be right for something that has not verified. The models are still chopping and changing. The usual suspects on the other side were writing off the next two weeks based on yesterday's output, yet we have flipped to something far more settled across the board this morning.

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Glad the most nasty summer killer though set up had been cut down so not prolonged unsettled weather for weeks.  With too much HP around UK the LP have to kill off or buzz off to another country for a change..  Today is very boring and wasting the summer long day light hours as now is 2 more days left before it start drawing in.

No your not right. You said..

"I think all models are now starting to come around to a prolonged spell of unsettled and much cooler weather. This is likely to last a couple of weeks at the very least. Maybe one or two warmer days, but largely wet for the foreseeable future."

So a day or so is not a couple of week. Like wandering said you can't be right for something that has yet to happen. 

Kieran’s reverse psychology strategy bearing fruit yet again as the models start to shift towards a settled outlook.

Keep up the good work, Moomin!

Think he needs a psychologist to fair.

You can't really judge the models' output based upon one day and one specific location though. The bulk of the country is dry at the moment and it's quite pleasant here with the sun trying to breaK through from time to time. It looks to be a fine sunny day over much of Scotland.

Time will tell whether I'm right, but I've certainly be right for this week.

Ho-hum.

You said that the unsettled spell would probably last "for a couple of weeks at least". Then you said largely wet for the foreseeable future, which contradicts the first statement. Why? Because the foreseeable future is about 5 days ahead only.

I need to stack up on salt.

Perhaps where you are, the 12z ECM and GFS op runs have 3mm or so of rain here in the next ten days.

That is a bold assumption going by recent output, Moomin. I'll take my hat off to you if you are proven correct though (a rabbit out of the hat scenario, IMO).

Indeed, this evening's charts are actually quite encouraging especially considering how the output looked only a few days ago. Gone is the green snot and instead we have higher pressure ridging north with the trough keeping out of the way for much of the time. A lot of dry weather , too once showers and thunderstorms clear eastwards in the two or three coming days.

UKMO - high pressure increasingly in control during next week...

[link removed]

ECM - high pressure attempting to bring settled weather with only the far north and west under threat for rain, and far from a washout there either...

[link removed] 

GFS - not quite as good but matching across the precip charts for the same time shows little rain for many inland areas away from the far west with beginning-of-the-week damp weather for the south soon clearing away...

[link removed)

GEM - positive enough with high pressure ridging in from Tuesday with any unsettled weather not making much headway east later in the week...

[link removed]

It seems like the UK may get a little luckier next week with previous indications of a stubborn trough setting up shop over the UK perhaps proving a premature thought with the form horse now for high pressure to become more influential as next week progresses. The new week may start wet especially for southern and eastern areas - a finale to the convective potential that is ending this week - but going by current output and extrapolating trends from the past 24-36 hours of data it looks much more positive heading towards the final week of June and astronomical summer.

(edit, I had to delete the supporting images as, for some strange reason, it detected the attachments as spam despite them being hosted on the site itself) My post seems less impactful as a result but if you check out the charts from t96 onwards, then focussing on t144-156 in particular you can see how the trend is going 

As expected.

My comment still stands. I have checked the precipitation charts. If the the two models I mention prove to be accurate the month with result in single digit (mm) rainfall totals here. I’m just pointing out that the picture is not uniformly unsettled/wet. Yes it is not a warm anticyclonic outlook.

At t+168 😅

We have high pressure ridging in from Tuesday before then - a chart which will likely change and is not well supported by the GFS, UKMO or GEM this evening either.

Not saying it won't happen like that but you're cherry picking to support an increasingly desperate view given quite a lot of dry weather is likely next week for a lot of the country 🙄

I have the feeling you were hoping for the ECM to throw out a chart like the t+168 as, looking at the output as a whole - the big picture if you will - it's all you've got.

Yes there are a few words to describe the output at the moment but 'uniformly unsettled' is definitely not one of them. Conversely it doesn't look fully settled either - Moomin's trough danger is noted with curiosity but nothing more at that range. A slight bias towards drier weather looks about right at the moment for next week with the following weekend undecided 

Agreed. It wouldn’t take too many changes for it to become a very good outlook (or conversely to be fair, a very poor one).

👍👍👍👍

Not much rain if any here so far in this “unsettled” spell.

Clearly that will change soon, but we have done alright.