ECM giving us quite the little green blob there

GFS is the one strand of hope today, but given the others are all trending in this direction, I wouldn't think that GFS in on the right path at the moment.

The BBC look ahead last night showed the LP currently spoiling summer for he south as a persistent and even enlarging feature before finally pushing off into the Continent later this week, with bands of rain affecting anywhere south of Manchester/Leeds in a random fashion. FAX agrees and shows a mess of fronts over S England until Thu 1st. But WX maps offers something much warmer and drier for the S in week 2, and although suggesting somewhat damper for the NW at that time, not dramatically so.

Jet fragments around UK to start with, then dipping S over Spain from Thu 1st gradually moving N again and breaking up over the UK Wed 7th before re-forming well to the N on Mon 12th

GFS - HP over Scotland gradually extending a ridge S-wards and just about holding on between the LP leaving the S and LP pressing from the Atlantic until Wed 7th when the HP focus shifts to a ridge from SW across UK to Norway and a close approach of LP to Hebrides. The ridge strengthens a bit, but is still there Tue 13th, similarly squeezed from both sides with LP near Rockall and something vaguely thundery over France (but the latter this time with a warm centre unlike the present one)

GEFS - significant rain for the S until Thu 1st then most runs edging warmer with what looks like a showery pattern of rainfall through to Tue 13th. Scotland up to 5C above norm and dry until about Mon 5th, the temps back to norm and rain becoming more frequent as time passes though not large amounts.

ECM - disappointing as after Wed 7th (it's like GFS up till then)LP on the Atlantic gathers strength and pushes in to be centred over N England 1000 mb Tue 6th with a notable cold pool at its centre.

I side with GFS because now it almost 2 weeks of unsettled weather with jet way south to France now where the phantom LP sit.  Surely they need to move back north and well over due warm and settled weather must return while we still on prime high summer time now.  If other fools showing LP coming in they are fools anyway as it been wrong every single day on ground surface as I get is overcast skies, some rain and cold temperatures despite 1020mb HP over us.  Also very wrong to say weak lows because they re very powerful and damaging one than zonal LP cells.

it’s not ending soon for U.K. southerners Jires also signs of quite a deep lower pressure hitting the N/W with unsettled conditions later on.

also of very much interest  hopefully for members here is that I came across this the other day which hopefully will be of interest for weather folk and gives a basic insight of gfs for the next 10 days

http://wxmaps.org/animations.php

btw Thanks Dew as always 

Looking at the ECM mean ,the Op is very much more unsettled.  So hope it's gone off on one this morning. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

I think its a worse case scenario,  more likely low pressure ends up more to the NW.  

Yes, but that's how Moomin forecasts the weather. Whatever model is showing the worst of conditions that's what he plumps for. 

The GFS op run shows the next week (and beyond) as drier and warmer than average for about two thirds of the country.

Cue the dismissal of the output that doesn’t meet certain agendas.

The other models are slightly more unsettled but generally warmer and drier than average for many northern parts. Admittedly it looks more unsettled further south (but I did not suggest otherwise).

On the latest GFS op run so far (06z) the next week also looks reasonable for many areas. Largely warm and not overly wet away from some southern areas.

The ECM op, as has been mentioned, is in the minority this morning.

Much better   ECM by the end its scorchio!

Still looks fairly poor to me until you get to the end of the run where there's a plume setting up, but unsettled before then.

that’s more like it

Yeah I think there will be some type of pattern change around then and expecting a more mobile pattern to take hold, GEFS show a drop in pressure and 850s around then with more precipitation spikes.

That’s too far away to be taken seriously or indeed for any level of forecasting reliability, but at least it is generally positive before then.