https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

That trough really is hugging the Channel like a limpet isn’t it? Poor Moomin. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

And yes, apologies for the off topic posts but it’s very interesting. 🙂

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I don't see any LP anywhere in UK all covered with large 1020mb HP so should be sunny and warm everywhere?   Either the charts is wrong or misleading which I been seeing different conditions on surface daily against what the charts showing HP every day.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

No, there is a trough to the south of the UK on that run. The charts are neither wrong or misleading (although of course they may not verify). High pressure by itself in a location close to the U.K. does not necessarily mean dry, hot and sunny weather in summer, as much as many of us would like it to. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Still they are wrong and misleading to show no clear LP cell over the channel like the channel lows does.  They need to take down the fake HP charts and put LP clearly shown.  That set-up before always deliver sunny warm to hot weather days nationwide.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

They have apologised for the trough which may have breached summer weather guidelines. However, they would like to reiterate that they have full confidence in the summer so far, and now consider the matter closed. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

They have apologised for the trough which may have breached summer weather guidelines. However, they would like to reiterate that they have full confidence in the summer so far, and now consider the matter closed. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Before LeedsLad comes on and whips us all into shape, I can pretty confidently say Manchester is wetter than Leeds (certainly in terms of rain days, not sure about actual rainfall).

Leeds’s figures are misrepresented from the Bingley weather station which is 200m up in the Pennines - for Leeds itself you’d be better off using Church Fenton which is much much drier. 

Manchester (Woodford) is also wetter than Liverpool (Crosby) but not by much. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I don't see any LP anywhere in UK all covered with large 1020mb HP so should be sunny and warm everywhere?   Either the charts is wrong or misleading which I been seeing different conditions on surface daily against what the charts showing HP every day.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Good grief channel low maybe 70m/m by next Friday that’s a wash out for s/e

next attack inbound 

http://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=eng&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=12&step=192&plottype=10&lat=49.887&lon=-4.138&skewtstep=0

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Before LeedsLad comes on and whips us all into shape, I can pretty confidently say Manchester is wetter than Leeds (certainly in terms of rain days, not sure about actual rainfall).

Leeds’s figures are misrepresented from the Bingley weather station which is 200m up in the Pennines - for Leeds itself you’d be better off using Church Fenton which is much much drier. 

Manchester (Woodford) is also wetter than Liverpool (Crosby) but not by much. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I don't live in the SE but this invisible non-exist low seem to placed there on purpose to block our potential summer warm to heat time frame as now we heading down to less daylight time.  If the jet are in the north why it we still getting those unsettled weather that why i feel the models had been misleading showing HP but the jet already further south so back to May set-up but not that cold as before.  I don't believe the jet are north now but down to France and S UK area.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

They have apologised for the trough which may have breached summer weather guidelines. However, they would like to reiterate that they have full confidence in the summer so far, and now consider the matter closed. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

WX maaps show a bit of warmth creeping into he S by week 2, but a lot of rain there first and not exactly dry later. The W getting more rain in week 2 - eastern France and Germanygetting a real soaking  over the next two weeks

FAX keeping that trough over or close to S England to end of run Wed and (despite Jiries' claims) HP only starts nosing in on Wed and then mainly to Scotland. After a lot of uncertainty in the models about tomorrow' s rain, it looks as if there will  be a double dose, a line moving N tonight and fading except that it never leaves the far SW, and a second thindery batch late afternoon coming across the central Channel.[MetO rainfall map]

GFS matches FAX, the HP slowly taking over after Wed 30th but takeover not complete until Sat 3rd (and even then the green circle of doom is still not far away, o the French/German border) It doesn't last as shallow troughs move E-ward from Atlantic Mon 5th 1005 mb N Sea and Sat 10th 1005 mb Ireland with ridge of HP between. The promised W-ly pattern is only there by Mon 12th, with quite a large temp gradient N-S

GEFS In the S, mean temps near norm throughout (serious variation from Mon 5th with several very warm runs appearing) and frequent rain, some runs with big totals,  not relaxing until around Mon 12th. In the N, temps consistently above norm, cooling a little from Sat 10th, and no rain until Sun 4th after which moderate amounts

ECM delays the breakdown of next weekend's HP with LP moving N to Iceland before extending a trough in the direction of UK Tue  6th

Originally Posted by: DEW 

A significant rain event next week at some point possible.  Other than that GEFS looks pretty reasonable.  

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Up here it is a bit different (after today):

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yes looks like a lovely spell of weather for you guys up there. Will Richard find something to complain about though?

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman