Actually, the later stages of the spaghettis are some of the best we've seen all winter and they are approaching the semi reliable time frame. They'll either be gone by the next run or else this is the point where the winter turns around and we see a change. I'm betting on the latter - no doubt I will look very foolish in a couple of hours time🙂. 

Summary shows further retreat of cold air back towards the NE, and pptn blowing in from the NW across the UK into Europe by week 2

Jet fragmented at first but strong W-ly flow near N Scotland Tue 1st moving S later that week but back N Sat 5th

GFS op shows Hp hanging on but further S with a more W-ly and often strong flow, interrupted by trough Thu 27th from LP near Iceland and a one-day wonder Fri 4th 965 mb E Scotland with a strong N-ly across all UK

GEFS temps mostly above norm esp near 29th until Mon 31st (cooler in the N); then mostly below for the following week. Rain common in S from Tue 1st and in the NW heavier and from a few days earlier.

ECM places the HP further to the SW so winds more from a NW-ly point

The UKM text is all you need to know about the outlook. More of the same MLB with occasional incursions becoming more likely.
The odd Cobra run with -15 uppers are just scraps blowing in the wind and the extended range isn’t called Fantasy Island for nothing.
Won’t stop having a look every morning though lol.

Pretty safe to write off this winter now.....a sharp cold snap in late spring  after a benign start followed by oppressive humidity until late October looks nailed on again, ridiculous to predict at such long range but our weather is so predictable now its not so folly.

One last look before a break and the GFS op throws up hope of a Scandi high ! Suppose will have to take peek later

ENS mean for 850's on 28th have flipped warmer now! Oh well was fun whilst it lasted and this wasn't even FI land.

Not worth talking about any models really and if they continue like this and our weather continues to be as uninteresting as ever then what is the point ...? What interesting weather can we talk about such as cold and snow? Just the same old pattern - there is snow and plenty of cold and snow in Athens, Greece and Turkey, Balkans, Corsica, Croatia, Albania, Italy and N America, Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Japan, China etc just never in NW Europe!

Istanbul, Turkey is coastal yet experiencing 1 week of sub zero daytime maxes and snow. There will be snow in Dallaman as well as Izmir, Turkey and both are coastal. There will also be snow in the Greek Islands of Skiathos and Rhodes etc. 

If that wasn't bad enough the modelled Warming or SSW the OP run at 10hpa was showing has now disappeared from the charts in FI and the PV is strengthening NOT weakening!

What the hell is causing the PV to strengthen given that it's a warming time of the year...? ANyone or is this the 100 dollar question? 

EDIT:- Just checked that there could be snow in Jerusalem - Israel from Monday to Friday next week! - This could break records for the middle east.   

I don't understand why this is always seen as a big deal. Greece & Turkey are on the same latitude as the northern plains in the US. Grant it, different geography but both countries have the great Eurasian landmass to the north and northeast of them, just as the great plains have Canada to the north of them. 

A PV powering up in Feb (which I hope happens, but doubtful that it will) is pretty standard. The mid to late mid part of the month is amongst the stormiest/westerly periods of the winter, climatology speaking. 

So you prefer milder wet and windy weather? As for February being the stormiest part of winter? - I disagree - this time of year the PV is weakening and westerly winds/zonal flow should be as well - I thought November, December and January are the stormiest part of the winter and when the PV is at it's highest strength.

Climatologically, full on westerlies comes in waves throughout the winter. Less frequent in Feb but no less strong. The end of Feb, however, shows a trend of tending towards more anticyclonic and colder type weather in general.

However, this winter is bucking all climatological trends. No cold, yet no real felt warmth in the air (unless you are moving about in it) No wind. No rain. It's actually beginning to feel quite eerie. 

Been watching the heavy snow fall in Troodos, Cyprus.  In the UK we can get all action winter weather relating to snow storms, subzero days and sub -10C at nights can be done if the pressure patterns in a right place but always sit in wrong place.  If was the case of GW then other countries shouldn't be getting the cold and snow either including the USA and Canada.

I would contest the fact that there's been no rain this winter. I went for a walk along the towpath of the canal the other day and it was like a quagmire! It would have been inpassable without wellington boots on.

Indeed. The predominantly dry January to date hasn’t undone the wet that preceded it.  It’s also very muddy round here, with puddles and with water still running off the fields.

Even with the arctic relatively warm, arctic outbreaks can result in extremely cold weather over large continents, because a lot of that cold is home grown (the airmass origin itself is really just a trigger). What I have been curiously wondering at lately is how much of the cold in the Arctic itself is native to the region, as I'm beginning to think that a good percentage of it is imported from the sub-Arctic interiors of northern Europe/Siberia and N. America. 

Nearest to -10 850s I can find this winter so far is a near blow to the east of Scotland on Christmas Eve:

and an actual glancing blow to the same region just a couple of days back:

Not a lot then haha

Yes, not to get too carried away, but if you take the MO as a whole over the last few days there are clear hints that things will turn colder as we head into February. The detail this far out is sketchy but the signals are positive I feel.

Need to avoid getting into the swings in output run to run but the GFS 18z looks decent again in FI.

WX summary shows cold air still hanging around over E Europe with not much inclination to move this way in the next two weeks, though the UK (still well above freezing) has lost the suggestion of milder SW-lies and perhaps colder from the N. Rain/pptn on N Atlantic week 1, pushing past Scotland and into C Europe week 2

Jet - not much action until Fri 28th then loops and bursts affecting mainly Scotland and mainly from N or NW

GFS op - HP still around until Sat 5th, mostly W-ly or NW-ly winds, with occasional near misses as LPs travel SE over Scandinavia (again! see Mon 31st) then LP 965mb Hebrides pulls in some Arctic air on the Sunday. That moves on but there's another deep LP developing near Iceland Tue 8th with trough advancing over UK

GEFS - mild now, closer to norm but up and down week beginning Thu 27th, generally below norm from Thu 3rd. Rain appearing in the S from Tue 1st but not a lot; distinctly more in the NW and starting a day or two earlier

ECM has HP a little further SW so more zonality and a little cooler but not very different from GFS

Check out the GFS 00z control - very pretty eye candy...last night’s pub run was pretty good for me - IMBY -with 2 modelled snow events, but was clearly a cold outlier compared to the ensemble average. The control was the warm outlier. Coming down to breakfast this morning, I find a role reversal: The Op is the Atlantic outlier and the Control - well - might as well be maple syrup pancakes and ripe, sweet blueberry topping. The ECM supports the GFS Op but the UKMO seems more like last night’s GFS pub run to me.

All together. - a dogs breakfast!

There remains no consistent signal in the longer range so any flirtations in the room with a cold scenario are just that. Taking 2018 as an example the modelling of significant height rises to the NE needs to appear at 240+ with increasing frequency and get into the sub 180 range with more certainty before becoming the majority solution across the suite by 120hrs.
Longer range modelling has become (in the main) too good to expect a ‘where did that high come from’ episode like we used to have 20-25yrs ago, so all the time we get the typical noise with a high sigma on the spaghetti plots you can keep the sledges in the back of the shed for another year.

(the caveat being the above is CS UK biased as we all know only a deep draw NEly cuts the cake down here. For other areas a Nly or NWly can deliver and brief incursions are still possible).