Ideal 

I wouldn't call two weeks time the reliable timeframe. As we are talking about the exact location of a large HP, despite what the ensembles say, I think the reliable is less than a week.

This morning's GFS ensembles push the colder options back again. I think we can forget January now, and think of the first couple of weeks of February although not much different showing at the moment.

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_342_1.png
Great chart 6z really is new pub run

😂

I think that was a tongue in cheek comment

Interesting 

Which charts are showing you the entirety of February? 

🙄

A lot will depend on what exactly the High does once we get into February as far as how mild or cold it is. What the high does a week or more from now is no more than educated guesswork just now.

Prior to the recent spell of HP dominated weather, the models for a while had struggled to properly pin down developments beyond 3-5 days ahead during December and the first few days of January. For me, it is very much a case of one week (or less) at a time at the moment.

Come on the Mystic Meg 

Post the charts for us to see 

To be fair to Taylor these look toasty 

My thoughts entirely. Just because it's not a mobile setup doesn't mean the HP can't move to a more "interesting" position in just a few days.

I'd say the potential is there for a potentially record warm February if the current pattern of high pressure sitting just to the south of us continues, given the strengthening sun through February that would see temperatures above 15c by mid-late February, and could possibly result in an 8c+ CET for the month. Indeed GFS 12z shows the sort of charts in early February already giving max temperatures of 12-13c.

Not a prediction, just saying it's a possibility, probably more likely than a meaningful cold spell coming to fruition, given how this Winter has panned out so far.

there is also potential for a sub zero CET for February our coldest snowiest month ! Not saying it will but it’s a possibility 

Somewhat less emphatic than the comment people were amused by or commenting on though:-

"Very mild February incoming no doubt."

Based on one op of one model which shows 8 days out of the month, 5 of which are generally above average (notably so at times) and 3 average or below (by day anyway). 

The potential, as the occasional op and various members show, is definitely there for some very mild weather for at least a couple of days. There's no sign at the moment in the models of an exceptional and lengthy mild spell, although it's possible in the same way as there's not much sign of a cold spell but that's possible too (particularly if you took the rather intriguingly balanced setup the 12z GFS op ends on, which is a nudge away from cold with a weak jet pulse looking to be heading under the blocking HP over Scandi).

I'd happily agree with you if you'd mentioned the Op shows the kind of setup that can lead to some very mild temps and it's worth seeing if more ens members pick a similar HP placement up as I think a few days of unusual warmth is more likely than usual at present because of the longevity of the HP and the tendency for it to move south at times. The general trend over the last 2 weeks and as far as the models are currently showing though is for the HP to meander around, with new cells moving over to replace the previous one and all that has tended to lead to too move movement for any lengthy runs of cold or mild, with temps bouncing around accordingly.  

Probably also worth mentioning the GFS Op is very much at the top of the ens pressure wise from 2nd Feb to 6th Feb and there's quite a number of members that have lower pressure, suggesting low confidence in in HP being as dominant, with more of an Atlantic influence a good possibility. The postage stamps have HP all over the place as you'd expect but to me somewhere West (and probably South West) looks favoured, with weather fronts crossing down from the West or North West, loosing oomph as they hit MBY. That's a set up that's often fairly mild down here but typically 1-2 days with cooler days behind the weather fronts. Further North it's usually wetter and often colder. 

Well, if that were to be the case we would surely be getting some sort of signal at this stage that something of interest is brewing. At least something to keep an eye on has appeared in the last 24 hours, re GFS.  The faint glimmers all be it deep in FI are two fold.  First of all an area of increased heights across parts of the near Arctic or stretching onwards across the pole ( as in the last 2 runs).   Secondly, it's been there in various guises, on 3 out of the last four runs. Let's hope that by this time tomorrow it is not 3 out of 8!

theme continues on18z but many a decent FI chart so far this winter. Something to watch..

Summary chart shows cold air moving a little W-wards but nothing to get excited over; pptn forecast has gone back to v dry, all well N of Scotland or later on in E Med.

Jet producing a burst down the N Sea next  weekend, otherwise well N of the UK

GFS op - HP continues over UK for 2 weeks (would it could get rid of the overcast! FAX shows a brisk W-ly Wed/Thu and a cold front which could clear things) at first a little to the W or SW so some W-ly or NW-ly winds then building to 1050mb England Sat 5th, then moving a little E-wards with SW-lies for the N

GEFS - temps near norm mostly, bit of a dip Tue 1st, very little rain in the SE esp at first, rather more on and off for the NW

ECM - keeps the HP but centred further S so more W-ly winds in the mix