theweatheroutlook

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John p
  • John p
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 June 2022 22:48:58

Hope this is ok to open, as we head towards a potentially short but potent spell of hot weather.


It currently looks like areas just sw of the Wash can expect the highest temps (35/36c?).


What is not clear is:-



  • how quick the heat moves away on Saturday

  • Can we beat the all time June record (35.6c)?

  • will it go bang?

  • can the heat return from the south east next week?


Shall we use this thread for short range model runs, plus our predictions and obs?


Mods - feel free to change as required 

Camberley, Surrey
Ally Pally Snowman
15 June 2022 04:55:32

This morning so far Arpege 36c, ICON 32c, GFS 31c , GEM 34c for Friday 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
John p
  • John p
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 June 2022 06:43:07


This morning so far Arpege 36c, ICON 32c, GFS 31c , GEM 34c for Friday 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Wow, quite a large range for something just a couple of days away. 

Camberley, Surrey
Brian Gaze
15 June 2022 06:52:37

UKV in at 35C.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=03&charthour=60&chartname=max_temp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20C


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
15 June 2022 07:43:17


 


Wow, quite a large range for something just a couple of days away. 


Originally Posted by: John p 


Yep, the models are struggling with this one. June record is just about still on though.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
15 June 2022 07:46:26
I don't think we'll get a record, but I was wrong in 2020.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
15 June 2022 08:40:52
Saturday morning could have some crazy high temperatures early on
Crepuscular Ray
15 June 2022 12:07:15
Just hit our warmest so far this year, 20 C with lots of blue sky now
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
John p
  • John p
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 June 2022 13:16:01
27c here so far - warmer than I was expecting today. Feels lovely!
Camberley, Surrey
Hungry Tiger
15 June 2022 13:36:08


Hope this is ok to open, as we head towards a potentially short but potent spell of hot weather.


It currently looks like areas just sw of the Wash can expect the highest temps (35/36c?).


What is not clear is:-



  • how quick the heat moves away on Saturday

  • Can we beat the all time June record (35.6c)?

  • will it go bang?

  • can the heat return from the south east next week?


Shall we use this thread for short range model runs, plus our predictions and obs?


Mods - feel free to change as required 


Originally Posted by: John p 


Good thread - Thanks and well done.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
15 June 2022 13:40:54

Saturday morning could have some crazy high temperatures early on

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Friday night into Saturday is looking extremely warm. Minima for London area are 20C on Arpege, 22C GFS, 19C ICON.


The record for June looks to be 22.7C at Ventnor Park in 1976. That one looks safe. Still, a pretty stuffy night. Interesting to see if we get a "tropical night" anywhere.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
15 June 2022 15:37:04

GFS seems to be showing much higher temperatures for Saturday than for Friday (for London), which goes against all other model output I have seen. Is there an error in this output or am i missing something?

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=6&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Low
15 June 2022 16:16:16

12z ARPEGE sticks with 36c Tremendous heat France


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=52&mode=41&map=300

Taylor1740
15 June 2022 16:19:42
Looking at the latest GFS run for Friday it has 31c in London and then has the heat pushing South much quicker on Saturday with 30c only on the far South coast.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
springsunshine
15 June 2022 16:29:23


Hope this is ok to open, as we head towards a potentially short but potent spell of hot weather.


It currently looks like areas just sw of the Wash can expect the highest temps (35/36c?).


What is not clear is:-



  • how quick the heat moves away on Saturday - The far SE could hold on to the heat into sunday

  • Can we beat the all time June record (35.6c)? - No

  • will it go bang? - Almost certainly especially the midlands northward as the two air masses meet

  • can the heat return from the south east next week? - Highly unlikley the rest of the month is looking below average


Shall we use this thread for short range model runs, plus our predictions and obs?


Mods - feel free to change as required 


Originally Posted by: John p 

Crepuscular Ray
15 June 2022 16:32:11
21 C here today and in Edinburgh too. Both achieving the highest temperature of the year so far
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
johncs2016
15 June 2022 17:05:39

21 C here today and in Edinburgh too. Both achieving the highest temperature of the year so far

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


Yes, and your old local station at Swanston in the south of Edinburgh currently has the honour of sharing that title for Edinburgh's highest temperature with Edinburgh Gogarbank with 20.8°C being the highest temperature so far at both of those stations.


Edinbugh Airport has had a temperature of 21°C, but that temperature is only recorded and then reported to the nearest 1°C which raises the possibility that the temperature at the airport might not necessarily have been as high as it was at those two other stations.


 

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Ally Pally Snowman
15 June 2022 18:04:09

28c in St James's park today making it the hottest day of the year. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
15 June 2022 18:06:39


12z ARPEGE sticks with 36c Tremendous heat France


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=52&mode=41&map=300


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Arpege also has 30c tmrw and 30c on the south coast Saturday 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
15 June 2022 21:10:45
UHI really showing itself this evening: 20.6 and 20.8C at our nearest PWS in SE London at 10.10pm, 12.5C at my vineyard and 12-14C in various other rural spots in Kent and Sussex.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
15 June 2022 22:09:33

A PWS near me recorded a maximum of 28.8*C this afternoon.  That's plenty hot enough for me!

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
Ally Pally Snowman
16 June 2022 05:50:52

Arpege still going for 35c tmrw . The other models 32/33c ish. Which you can normally add 2c . I think the June record is definitely on. Depends on cloud cover.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
16 June 2022 06:37:25
Models seem to have trimmed a degree or two off today. UKV going for 34 and Arpege going for 35 (the latter putting the hot spot more or less right over my house!)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
16 June 2022 07:18:41
Today will be a good guide. If it reaches 30C somewhere then we know the upper end of the Friday forecasts is in with a shout.

So far not hugely different this morning from yesterday. Perhaps a degree warmer in parts of the SE.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
ARTzeman
16 June 2022 08:46:04

Might be lucky and reach 28c...





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Others just get wet.
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