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squish
19 December 2022 16:06:52
Colder earlier but as with ICON that cut off low  left behind might scupper things if it spins up in situ
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
+1
ballamar
19 December 2022 16:16:55
Could be short term pain for a better evolution down the line if the low can push through
squish
19 December 2022 16:17:39
UKMO follows ICON...but GFS completely dissipates the big USA  storm by +168 and maintains heights over Greenland...which UKMO collapses.

Fascinating stuff but no clearer than an hour ago!
 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
+1
ballamar
19 December 2022 16:29:50
GFS at 198h at pivotal point for more southern areas, does the high strengthen the euro high and stop the low sinking
squish
19 December 2022 16:30:44
Don't tell me its going to run a low up into Biscay!!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
ballamar
19 December 2022 16:33:31
Did they purposely build the M4 on a weather boundary? GFS channel low of sorts at 216
+1
Jacee
19 December 2022 16:34:38
It will be interesting to see who wins this battle between the models with the GFS again going for heights building over Greenland. An initial push of cold air 24th-25th gives many northern areas a white Christmas before it turns back to rain for some as the cold air mixes out. As the low circulates just to the NE it then brings a renewed push of cold air down from the north after Boxing Day.

I'm glad I'm not a forecaster!
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
+1
moomin75
19 December 2022 16:40:31
I will very happily give up a white Christmas if what the GFS 12Z is showing for my birthday on 28th comes off.

Pretty certain it'll be wrong, but nice to look at.  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+1
Arbroath 1320
19 December 2022 16:56:50

It will be interesting to see who wins this battle between the models with the GFS again going for heights building over Greenland. An initial push of cold air 24th-25th gives many northern areas a white Christmas before it turns back to rain for some as the cold air mixes out. As the low circulates just to the NE it then brings a renewed push of cold air down from the north after Boxing Day.

I'm glad I'm not a forecaster!

Originally Posted by: Jacee 



GFS in my experience has always been a good model for spotting trends/pattern changes, albeit it's output can be a bit erratic run to run. 

The model has been pretty consistent with it's output recently in terms of the general pattern however. The trouble with the set up though it is predicting, is that very small changes to the output, can make a massive difference to the weather on the ground on any day. 

If GFS has the general pattern correct for Christmas, you're absolutely right, it is a weather forecasters nightmare. The difference between dry/wet/snow could vary dramatically hour to hour and across close locations. 
GGTTH
Downpour
19 December 2022 17:00:23

GFS in my experience has always been a good model for spotting trends/pattern changes, albeit it's output can be a bit erratic run to run. 

The model has been pretty consistent with it's output recently in terms of the general pattern however. The trouble with the set up though it is predicting, is that very small changes to the output, can make a massive difference to the weather on the ground on any day. 

If GFS has the general pattern correct for Christmas, you're absolutely right, it is a weather forecasters nightmare. The difference between dry/wet/snow could vary dramatically hour to hour and across close locations. 

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 



Variations on a theme from the 12z Op, pushes the cold back in the south by a day or so (to 27 Dec) but still much to interest those of a cold persuasion over the festive season. If one classifies Christmas as 24 Dec to 3 Jan (as those are the holidays for many), then one has to say there are potshots at a White Christmas (period) available for all.

Plenty to play for. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+1
squish
19 December 2022 17:01:33
The GEFS 12z  average at +162 is not far off the other main models at that time, other than they blow up that low to the SW a bit more than the gfs op does

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-31-1-162.png 
 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Downpour
19 December 2022 17:15:39

I will very happily give up a white Christmas if what the GFS 12Z is showing for my birthday on 28th comes off.

Pretty certain it'll be wrong, but nice to look at.  

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Indeed, Kieron. Coldies must be hoping that the GFS is the trendsetter. Its recent runs have all fancied bringing in widespread snowfall during the festive break. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
ballamar
19 December 2022 17:16:32
Leaving one very cold spell, with the chance of another in view in not too distance albeit on GFS predominantly. In previous Decembers would have generated more excitement. Better than prevailing SW from Azores across the board
+2
squish
19 December 2022 17:19:28
Things can change quickly

Midday Christmas Eve 1978

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1978/noaa/NOAA_1_1978122412_2.png 

Miday New Years eve 1978

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1978/noaa/NOAA_1_1978123112_2.png 

Couldn't resist..I remember it well!

 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
+2
Downpour
19 December 2022 17:27:12

Leaving one very cold spell, with the chance of another in view in not too distance albeit on GFS predominantly. In previous Decembers would have generated more excitement. Better than prevailing SW from Azores across the board

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



I'm dreaming of a Mild Christmas
Just like the ones I used to know
When the grass is muddy
And the models cruddy
Daz Bett grins and says "no snow"

I'm dreaming of a Mild Christmas
Like Uncle Barty brought to pass...
May your days be windy and wild
And may all your Christmases be mild!

 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+5
nsrobins
19 December 2022 17:49:35
GFS still keen on Griceland heights. A nod perhaps towards this solution by the UKM with a notably more wintry text update.
Momentum?
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Essan
19 December 2022 18:18:38
Alex Deakin's excellent week ahead forecast is well worth watching - for an explanation of how and why the models are struggling and a hint at the possible resolution.  

https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/9842575652423028 
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
+2
tallyho_83
19 December 2022 18:24:40
Pity the 12z operational is  a cold outlier.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
19 December 2022 18:27:09

Pity the 12z operational is  a cold outlier.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



It is not an outlier.

It is however one of the coldest options in the suite.

 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
ballamar
19 December 2022 18:28:09

Pity the 12z operational is  a cold outlier.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



what about the other runs just as cold if not colder??
bledur
19 December 2022 18:36:42

Things can change quickly

Midday Christmas Eve 1978

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1978/noaa/NOAA_1_1978122412_2.png 

Miday New Years eve 1978

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1978/noaa/NOAA_1_1978123112_2.png 

Couldn't resist..I remember it well!

 

Originally Posted by: squish 


 Yes that was quite a blizzard that struck New Years Eve with very fine powder snow and impresive drifting by morning . It turned very cold during the afternoon after qiute an average morning on New Years Eve.
moomin75
19 December 2022 18:52:38
So, it remains GFS against the rest.

Based on that, I know where my money would be if I was a betting man, and it certainly isn't on GFS or any of the GEFS.

ECM and UKMO have this nailed in my view.
They've been consistently going with mild for most, and I can't see them being wrong.

And given the 12z GFS is an outlier in terms of cold and a huge outlier in terms of precipitation, it is without a doubt barking up the wrong tree.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gandalf The White
19 December 2022 18:57:42

It is not an outlier.

It is however one of the coldest options in the suite.

 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Indeed, Michael.  It’s odd how the term ‘outlier’ gets misused.

I find the ‘box’ chart on Meteociel useful as you can see where the Op sits in terms of quartile/deciles.  At the 850hPa level the 12z tracks the mean out to Xmas Day; it then sits in the lower quartile or bottom decile from 30th, briefly a cold outlier for part of New Year’s Eve.   The 2m temperature ensemble chart is mostly in the bottom decile from 30th.

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Essan
19 December 2022 18:57:47

So, it remains GFS against the rest.
ECM and UKMO have this nailed in my view.
They've been consistently going with mild for most, and I can't see them being wrong.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Except if you watch Alex Deakin's forecast they are NOT saying that, and snow for the south is well within the bounds of possibility at this stage.

(not that I am saying that'll happen - but I doubt anyone will no for sure where the front lies next weekend, for a few days yet)
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
David M Porter
19 December 2022 18:58:02
Based on the amount of model volatility there has been recently and continues to be at the moment, I wouldn't be betting on any models having this correct yet, no matter how reliable they may normally be. I think it may well not be until the middle of this week or possibly after that before all the models have sussed this out, one way or the other.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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