theweatheroutlook

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doctormog
19 December 2022 18:58:44
For context, here is the mean t850hPa deviation chart from this morning’s ECM suite for Christmas Day:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU00_144_34.png

UserPostedImage 

The 12z equivalent should be available within the hour.

Going out to the end of the 00z set this is the day 10 chart: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU00_240_34.png  

Edit: As Andy’s post earlier shows there are numerous options and many (the majority by the look of things) are colder than the UKMO and ECM operational runs. The Met Office are taking them seriously, perhaps others should too.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gandalf The White
19 December 2022 18:59:33

So, it remains GFS against the rest.

Based on that, I know where my money would be if I was a betting man, and it certainly isn't on GFS or any of the GEFS.

ECM and UKMO have this nailed in my view.
They've been consistently going with mild for most, and I can't see them being wrong.

And given the 12z GFS is an outlier in terms of cold and a huge outlier in terms of precipitation, it is without a doubt barking up the wrong tree.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



As the pattern for this weekend is still in the form of jelly, I’m not sure that ‘nailed’ is appropriate, since you can’t nail jelly.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+2
moomin75
19 December 2022 19:05:44

As the pattern for this weekend is still in the form of jelly, I’m not sure that ‘nailed’ is appropriate, since you can’t nail jelly.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



I reckon you can in its raw state.
 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
nsrobins
19 December 2022 19:05:47

Alex Deakin's excellent week ahead forecast is well worth watching - for an explanation of how and why the models are struggling and a hint at the possible resolution.  

https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/9842575652423028 

Originally Posted by: Essan 


The forecasters really enjoy presenting those videos / gives them a chance to explain things in much more detail than the brief dumbing down they have to squeeze into a brief forecast.
The intense N’oreaster in the US playing havoc with the modelling across our quadrant of the N Hemisphere, and I wouldn’t like to say which model has got a handle on it at this stage. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Taylor1740
19 December 2022 19:06:08

So, it remains GFS against the rest.

Based on that, I know where my money would be if I was a betting man, and it certainly isn't on GFS or any of the GEFS.

ECM and UKMO have this nailed in my view.
They've been consistently going with mild for most, and I can't see them being wrong.

And given the 12z GFS is an outlier in terms of cold and a huge outlier in terms of precipitation, it is without a doubt barking up the wrong tree.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


indeed and the GEFS are now starting to trend milder so it's only a matter of time before the operational and the whole GEFS flip to mild in line with the other models.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
David M Porter
19 December 2022 19:13:19

indeed and the GEFS are now starting to trend milder so it's only a matter of time before the operational and the whole GEFS flip to mild in line with the other models.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Hmmm, a big assumption to make at the moment, IMHO.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
doctormog
19 December 2022 19:15:28

indeed and the GEFS are now starting to trend milder so it's only a matter of time before the operational and the whole GEFS flip to mild in line with the other models.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Did you watch the Met Office video Andy posted and read the Met Office medium range outlook before making that comment? I do find it slightly amusing that a few on here discount our country’s most experienced forecasters instead opting for a one-liner that ignores a huge body of the evidence.

For example the GFS was supposed to have flipped to a mild solution on the 18z op run yesterday. People forget all these types of posts in situations where the cold weather comes along. It’s the same as forecasting weeks of rain and washout summers ad naseum then going very quiet when a heatwave materialises.

Its okay to say “I don’t know” and in the current situation, given the uncertainty, I would suggest that may be the wisest approach.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+5
Gandalf The White
19 December 2022 19:17:12

indeed and the GEFS are now starting to trend milder so it's only a matter of time before the operational and the whole GEFS flip to mild in line with the other models.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Since there is considerable doubt about the pattern in 5-6 days’ time, I think any call about what happens beyond that is foolhardy.  Anyway, I don’t see any ‘trend (towards) milder’, I see huge scatter and a mean for 2m temperature that is most certainly not mild at any stage: for London it signals average to cool.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Gandalf The White
19 December 2022 19:21:49

Did you watch the Met Office video Andy posted and read the Met Office medium range outlook before making that comment? I do find it slightly amusing that a few on here discount our country’s most experienced forecasters instead opting for a one-liner that ignores a huge body of the evidence.

For example the GFS was supposed to have flipped to a mild solution on the 18z op run yesterday. People forget all these types of posts in situations where the cold weather comes along. It’s the same as forecasting weeks of rain and washout summers ad naseum then going very quiet when a heatwave materialises.

Its okay to say “I don’t know” and in the current situation, given the uncertainty, I would suggest that may be the wisest approach.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Good post, Michael.

What I think is interesting is that the ‘battleground’ between the cold and mild air masses has been signalled to be somewhere around the British Isles for quite a few days now.  That video was good in that it confirmed what some of us have been saying for several days, against a recurringwave of comments about it being mild for the foreseeable future. 

Sometimes you can see the broad pattern playing out and have to ignore individual operational runs from individual models.  The professionals don’t use operational runs alone once you get just a few days out, as that video demonstrated.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+2
Arbroath 1320
19 December 2022 19:32:22

Alex Deakin's excellent week ahead forecast is well worth watching - for an explanation of how and why the models are struggling and a hint at the possible resolution.  

https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/9842575652423028 

Originally Posted by: Essan 



Brilliant summary from Alex. Emphasises totally, the complexity involved in predicting the set-up leading up to Christmas. 

I wouldn't be putting a bet on the outcomes predicted by any of the models at this stage. 
GGTTH
David M Porter
19 December 2022 19:34:23

Did you watch the Met Office video Andy posted and read the Met Office medium range outlook before making that comment? I do find it slightly amusing that a few on here discount our country’s most experienced forecasters instead opting for a one-liner that ignores a huge body of the evidence.

For example the GFS was supposed to have flipped to a mild solution on the 18z op run yesterday. People forget all these types of posts in situations where the cold weather comes along. It’s the same as forecasting weeks of rain and washout summers ad naseum then going very quiet when a heatwave materialises.

Its okay to say “I don’t know” and in the current situation, given the uncertainty, I would suggest that may be the wisest approach.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Hear hear, Michael. 👍
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+3
ballamar
19 December 2022 19:37:19
Think the tag team will continue until it either is mild with both patting each other on the back saying I told you so or go incredibly quiet for a couple of days if it does go cold. Funny old pair
+3
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 December 2022 19:37:35

Yes that was quite a blizzard that struck New Years Eve with very fine powder snow and impresive drifting by morning . It turned very cold during the afternoon after qiute an average morning on New Years Eve.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Where are you though?  We don’t have the side bar on this new look forum, so it would help if you put you location on your signature.  👍
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
+2
Weathermac
19 December 2022 20:00:23

So, it remains GFS against the rest.

Based on that, I know where my money would be if I was a betting man, and it certainly isn't on GFS or any of the GEFS.

ECM and UKMO have this nailed in my view.
They've been consistently going with mild for most, and I can't see them being wrong.

And given the 12z GFS is an outlier in terms of cold and a huge outlier in terms of precipitation, it is without a doubt barking up the wrong tree.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



And if GFS was showing Mild you would be saying GFS was right ! 🤣
+1
HFC1875
19 December 2022 20:03:29

Alex Deakin's excellent week ahead forecast is well worth watching - for an explanation of how and why the models are struggling and a hint at the possible resolution.  

https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/9842575652423028 

Originally Posted by: Essan 



Thanks for sharing that was really interesting to watch and very informative.
Rob K
19 December 2022 21:02:45
FWIW the iPhone/IBM model is going for 2C and snow here next Wednesday. So GFS is not totally on its own. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
dagspot
19 December 2022 21:39:27

FWIW the iPhone/IBM model is going for 2C and snow here next Wednesday. So GFS is not totally on its own. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yet BBC has 6dc and rain for Glasgow same period
Neilston 600ft ASL
Brian Gaze
19 December 2022 21:41:10
The GEFS 12z has trended milder, although the GEFS has been oscillating a little in the last 48 hours so it could revert.

UserPostedImage


UserPostedImage
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
19 December 2022 21:47:20
ECM ENS 12z also looking very mixed.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+3
glenogle
19 December 2022 22:03:16
It seems that age old issue of the higher resolution section of the ens picking up the finer detail and the cold being held out at the start of low res and not getting closer as a result.
UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
doctormog
19 December 2022 22:06:42

It seems that age old issue of the higher resolution section of the ens picking up the finer detail and the cold being held out at the start of low res and not getting closer as a result.

Originally Posted by: glenogle 



Not really, the timescale hasn’t changed too much over recent days, nor has the significant uncertainty over the Christmas period decreased yet. https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25 

This is the picture for Saturday on the 18z GFS op run: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_114_1.png  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
19 December 2022 22:12:55
Christmas Day looking cold in Scotland but very mild in the south on the latest update.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Hippydave
19 December 2022 22:25:05
As mentioned above 18z maintains the theme of a cold Xmas period for Scotland, with significant snowfall at times. 

IMBY it's looking relatively mild, with the potential for strong winds at times, assuming the Op has things close to correct of course.

Looks fairly promising for the cold sinking south at T183, although as the recent ens set suggests it's finely balanced and the mild air coming up from the South may encroach albeit raising the possibility of boundary snow somewhere.
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
BJBlake
19 December 2022 22:29:00

Thanks for sharing that was really interesting to watch and very informative.

Originally Posted by: HFC1875 


Really good link - really helpful explanation from Alex Daton. Very interesting winter season for sure, and keeps me glued to the model runs, between house-elf duties for the 15 family members descending on us for the big day.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
moomin75
19 December 2022 22:52:44
As I had anticipated, massive back track from GFS and more in line with UKMO and ECM.  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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