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Rob K
19 January 2023 10:27:04
Frustrating model watching at the moment with HP bumbling around for ever but never getting its act together to move into a position to open the floodgates.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
UncleAlbert
19 January 2023 10:46:01

Still no sign of anything significantly colder as we head into February.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Looking like that as per current output. I[color=var(--bs-body-color)]f we are looking for some eye candy lurking in the number crunchers, there were around 6 or 7 snorkelers in the ECM ensembles from day 10 onwards, a bit of a trend in recent runs.  May have something to do with last night's scatty GEM.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts2/ecmhrens/ecmwfens850london.png 

Apart from that it is a lovely crisp January day here in Somerset today![/color]
UncleAlbert
19 January 2023 10:48:30
Anyone know why that code appeared on my post.  It's not on the original script!
Jiries
19 January 2023 11:20:07

Frustrating model watching at the moment with HP bumbling around for ever but never getting its act together to move into a position to open the floodgates.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



That the reason why I have very high hatred with HP cells, they do nothing to benefit for the UK or allow us to get any interesting variety of weather.  This HP so far bring sunshine but need to go asap to prevent weeks of overcast weather which always the case when HP unwelcome stay too long in wrong place.
llamedos
19 January 2023 11:28:35

Anyone know why that code appeared on my post.  It's not on the original script!

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 


No idea and it won't edit as it doesn't appear in the text? One for Brian....  
"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
idj20
19 January 2023 11:31:09
Looking relatively benign and settled as far as the eye can see, thus taking up a good chunk of this meteorological winter. 

I'll take that for now. 👌
Folkestone Harbour. 
nsrobins
19 January 2023 12:27:55

Frustrating model watching at the moment with HP bumbling around for ever but never getting its act together to move into a position to open the floodgates.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Indeed - after a few days where there were signs of something akin to HLB getting into the right place, momentum has waned and it’s looking like a MLB meandering around the UK for the foreseeable.
At least it will be . . . dry 😎
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
19 January 2023 12:49:12
 
It appears to me that the 00z UKMO on netweather appears to have been downgraded but it still shows the UK under Coldish NW flow on Wednesday 26th and Thursday 27th January next week, but the winds seem lighter with isobars less tightly packed less NNW and more W NW or NW'ly.  But still the NW Atlantic got a ridging high SE of a NW Atlantic Low over NE USA SE Canada Newfoundland, and a slanting hit over the UK, with main cold flow just to NE and to E of the UK, cross some NW E N and SE Parts though.   The GFS 06z does not show it, but the 00z ECMWF does, I wonder whether Netweather has changed the 00z ECMWF charts as well, I find it interesting why the adjustment is made this late morning.

To avoid confusing people like me.


 
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Taylor1740
19 January 2023 13:35:05

Looking like that as per current output. I[color=var(--bs-body-color)]f we are looking for some eye candy lurking in the number crunchers, there were around 6 or 7 snorkelers in the ECM ensembles from day 10 onwards, a bit of a trend in recent runs.  May have something to do with last night's scatty GEM.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts2/ecmhrens/ecmwfens850london.png 

Apart from that it is a lovely crisp January day here in Somerset today![/color]

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 


yes and GEFS has a few more runs bringing in deep cold now but still very much an outside chance.

Glorious here also! There has certainly been some very nice crisp sunny days this Winter at least, just need some snow round here now!
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
19 January 2023 13:57:13
  00z GFS I had a look at,  I see the very Cold weather in NE USA, E SE Canada, far NW Atlantic Sea helping create Low Pressure waves on the strong Northwest and North Atlantic Jetstream,  UK and West Europe getting some Cold NW or NNW flow, after turning less cold with frosts lifting by Monday and Tuesday.  

The UK West and NW Europe looked quite a lot blocked by a Colder Azores High, and some milder weather on 00z GFS just like UKMO 00z, that was tweaked this morning on Netweather- it was quite a cold NW flow for 26th January and through to Thursday 27th, comparing to 192 hrs 27th Thursday on 00z ECMWF they were the same.

It could turn a bit less cold from 28th January to about 31st January, but from 1st to 3rd February I have just check to see the 00z GFS which I favour and trust more than the 06z GFS, it is cold high Azores High, and it has some cold frosty and snowy weather too, with some Beast from the East Low Pressure.

The GFS Ensembles that you have posted, show that return to cold on the 25th for London, but then after that it gets ENS there's lot of scattering on it, ranging from -3 to +2 that sort of.

But I shall see what they show over the next few days.

 
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
19 January 2023 14:02:30
Yes I am happy to see a change this January after 3 weeks of temperatures in London ranging from +5 to +14 or +15, often between 12 to 14 deg. C from December 17th to about January 13th, that brought the December CET back up.  But for this January month, I am now optimistic that maybe the CET this month could deliver the UK another close to average CET, based on the period 14th Jan. to 19th January today.

And with London and SE England likely to keep the frosty nights and coldish days at least to much of next week then I can hope to enjoy much needed relief from the very wet 3 weeks we had recently and it will always be remembered as a bad period of this winter so far. 

Now when is the next very cold and snowy weather forecast going to deliver.
And now that i am going to go out for a short while, I am very happy Brian G. that you have a very nice look to your the weatheroutlook.com.
Thanks Brian and Neil etc for keeping good company with me for all these years.
 
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Hippydave
19 January 2023 15:07:40
Looks to me like a slight shift in the main models towards moving HP just to the west or south west of the UK in the medium to long term, which means less chance of surface cold and more chance of milder air circulating around the high impacting more of the UK.  A quick scan of the GEFS postage stamps suggests the colder members are those that have the HP ridging more strongly northwards, allowing colder air to be drawn down.

So other than there being reasonable confidence on HP being dominant in the mid term, it's still hard to say what the weather will be like outside of 'mostly dry'. The T2M temps on the GFS and ECM ens would suggest relatively average weather is the more likely outcome as it stands, with both noticeably mild and noticeably cool possible but unlikely.

Still, down here at least, if it's sunny and the winds are light it'll start to feel very pleasant as we head towards February.
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Lionel Hutz
19 January 2023 15:53:42

Yes I am happy to see a change this January after 3 weeks of temperatures in London ranging from +5 to +14 or +15, often between 12 to 14 deg. C from December 17th to about January 13th, that brought the December CET back up.  But for this January month, I am now optimistic that maybe the CET this month could deliver the UK another close to average CET, based on the period 14th Jan. to 19th January today.

And with London and SE England likely to keep the frosty nights and coldish days at least to much of next week then I can hope to enjoy much needed relief from the very wet 3 weeks we had recently and it will always be remembered as a bad period of this winter so far. 

Now when is the next very cold and snowy weather forecast going to deliver.
And now that i am going to go out for a short while, I am very happy Brian G. that you have a very nice look to your the weatheroutlook.com.
Thanks Brian and Neil etc for keeping good company with me for all these years.
 

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 



Good to see you back on TWO, LA2B.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



ballamar
19 January 2023 17:56:19
Control run is the tease tonight almost perfect split PV but looks shaky!
Jacee
19 January 2023 18:02:12

Looks to me like a slight shift in the main models towards moving HP just to the west or south west of the UK in the medium to long term, which means less chance of surface cold and more chance of milder air circulating around the high impacting more of the UK.  A quick scan of the GEFS postage stamps suggests the colder members are those that have the HP ridging more strongly northwards, allowing colder air to be drawn down.

So other than there being reasonable confidence on HP being dominant in the mid term, it's still hard to say what the weather will be like outside of 'mostly dry'. The T2M temps on the GFS and ECM ens would suggest relatively average weather is the more likely outcome as it stands, with both noticeably mild and noticeably cool possible but unlikely.

Still, down here at least, if it's sunny and the winds are light it'll start to feel very pleasant as we head towards February.

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 



It's an interesting point you make regarding the positioning of the high pressure and the potential for a more circulatory airmass over the Uk rather than a stagnant one from a limpet UK high. Do you think the former would decrease the chances for anticyclonic gloom?

We talk about the chances of surface cold or the high being in an advantageous position for colder air to be drawn southwards, but I do wonder whether the opposite could occur as well, as in anomalously mild temperatures?

Just musings, rather than predictions, mind! As you say, given the uncertainties surrounding where the high positions itself, the only reliable conclusion in the mid-term is 'dry' 😊
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
Heavy Weather 2013
19 January 2023 18:26:01
Hmm. 

Looking at GFS, there does seem to be some movement after the 26/01, some runs go below -10 850s. Maybe something to watch.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
pdazz
19 January 2023 18:31:46
hi,
looking at the model outlook, at least it will be........Dry (well mostly)
Models do struggle with HP systems and it will be interesting where the HP sits, crucial for it being either cold/gloomy or glimpses of sunlight at this time of year depending on cloud cover. 
 
Ally Pally Snowman
19 January 2023 18:33:15

Hmm. 

Looking at GFS, there does seem to be some movement after the 26/01, some runs go below -10 850s. Maybe something to watch.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



Indeed, definitely the best GEFS so far .  some beauties in there. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jacee
19 January 2023 18:46:03
Seems many of those colder GEFS members encourage a rather potent northerly with a retrogressed high in the N Atlantic heading for Greenland. As others have mused, recent northerlies have brought some very low temperatures in places and this one would be no different! P10 keeps it very cold for a good week, for example.

UserPostedImage
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
Hippydave
19 January 2023 19:10:48

It's an interesting point you make regarding the positioning of the high pressure and the potential for a more circulatory airmass over the Uk rather than a stagnant one from a limpet UK high. Do you think the former would decrease the chances for anticyclonic gloom?

We talk about the chances of surface cold or the high being in an advantageous position for colder air to be drawn southwards, but I do wonder whether the opposite could occur as well, as in anomalously mild temperatures?

Just musings, rather than predictions, mind! As you say, given the uncertainties surrounding where the high positions itself, the only reliable conclusion in the mid-term is 'dry' 😊

Originally Posted by: Jacee 



I guess it depends on whether it stays out west or moves back over us - the former would probably have at least some sunnier spells, the latter would probably just trap moisture and increase cloud cover. 

We've had some decent frosty spells IMBY where HP has stuck around and gradually cleared as the air drys out so a limpet UK high wouldn't necessarily stay cloudy IMO, although I guess as it's been so wet lately there's a lot of moisture about this time to feed low level clag/fog. 


 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
ballamar
19 January 2023 22:28:07
GFS brings in some cold next week to east Anglia and SE. See if that gets any support in future runs
Quantum
19 January 2023 22:38:10

GFS brings in some cold next week to east Anglia and SE. See if that gets any support in future runs

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



That's the sort of cold spell that could actually deliver for my area.
Interesting the cold arrives as soon as 120h!

 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Snow Hoper
19 January 2023 22:51:29
Yep, pub rub looking pretty good for a change.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
nsrobins
19 January 2023 23:13:18

Yep, pub rub looking pretty good for a change.

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 



QTR 😂
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
The Beast from the East
19 January 2023 23:34:44
A slight drift west makes all the difference. The SE looking the coldest part for a change. Not good for those heating bills 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

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