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moomin75
22 April 2023 07:01:30

It's looking like another forecast warm spell has vanished into thin air to be replaced with more cool and unsettled weather!

Could end up being a very wet spring this ☔

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


The GFS 0Z has indeed turned very cool and unsettled, but its just one run.
The other big models don't show the same pattern at present, and look a fair bit better, albeit cooler than they were showing a couple of day's ago.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
DEW
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22 April 2023 07:25:42
FAX charts are full of weather this morning. LP covering Britain 1000mb tomorrow (Sun) with fronts in both N & S; on Mon N-lies direct from Svalbard push the front down to the Channel; brief respite on Tue before a tangle of Atlantic fronts moves up from France.

WX looks cooler for Britain than yesterday;  the cold-ish pool starts by moving off E-wards into Poland in week 1 but then not staying there as cool weather is spread out in week 2 over a wider area from N France across N Germany to the Baltic States. Rain generally over Europe in week 1, concentrating on the more mountainous areas; mch the same in week 2 but an ominous amount gathering on the Atlantic just W of Ireland.

GFS Op - as before, trough from Atlantic across Britain to Norway splitting to leave Britain in a col with influences from each side  though pressure rises somewhat for the weekend (less from the Atlantic than FAX suggests). Then (new development) deep LP on Atlantic moves in 985mb N Ireland Tue 2nd, moves to Shetland deepening and bringing in N-lies. Then by Sat 6th that extended trough is back and the synoptics look just like those for tomorrow, even going on to split in the same way a day or two later. Jet stream present across S Britain for the next fortnight, albeit with occasional breaks.

ECM - for the coming week is similar to GFS though more inclined to follow FAX bringing troughs up from the S both Wed & Fri. After that, it's quite different, by Tue 2nd HP is well established between Scotland & Norway with LP over France affecting S England. 

GEFS - becoming cold around Tue 25th (+/- 1 day in S, +/- 2 days in N) but mean temp recovering to norm by Thu 27th and staying there throughout with agreement from most ens members at least until Mon 1st. The S has heavy rain in the next few days, rather less in Scotland - a brief dry period everywhere around the 25th, then intermittent rain heavier in the N.

No clear agreement from the different charts after the next few days
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
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DEW
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23 April 2023 07:11:48
WX temp charts showing more cold from the N in week 1, esp over Scotland, but much of W Europe cool and the far N of Europe still v. cold while rather warm E of Urals. In Week 2 it gets milder for Britain as warmer weather moves Up through Biscay and the cool area shifts E-wards beyond Poland. Rainfall charts have changed since yesterday; week 1 wet in various places across Europe but esp wet in Scandinavia, week 2 becoming v. dry from Baltic to Tunisia, and the rain previously shown gathering on the Atlantic has backed off.

GFS Op - trough lying SW-NE across Britain splitting into two centres, mid-Atlantic and Norway, the latter sending N-lies down the N Sea (BBC Meteo Group shows these covering the whole country, not just the E). Within the col the pressure slowly rises to become HP 1020mb centred over Britain Sun 29th. The HP persists, intensifies and moves a little NE-wards to S Scandinavia 1030mb Sat 6th. After that, a trough appears to the SW with SE-lies strengthening and threatening rain from Cornwall to S Ireland.

ECM - similar to GFS but the HP after the 29th is larger in extent and still centred over Britain 1025mb Wed 3rd

GEFS - A cold snap either side of Tue 26th, brief in S (esp SW), longer in N, temps back to normal everywhere Thu 28th and then near norm or a little above through to Tue 9th, In the S, wet at first, then mostly dry esp SE; in the N dry at first then more chances of rain but not really wet.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Rob K
23 April 2023 18:40:30
Beginning of May and still deep blues across the north on the 850mb charts (on GFS at least).
Can we have some spring please?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
AJ*
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24 April 2023 07:01:00

We're at the time of year where most of us are looking to get outside for one reason or another. Often needing to plan ahead so there is much more focus in advance of the weekends than perhaps in late autumn or winter. I think we notice these model fluctuations much more in the summer, especially when the forecast gets downgraded. 
 . . .
 

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Yes indeed. In my case to mow the lawn (6 inches high already) and deal with the weeds which are flowering and going to seed in their dozens. Though after the drenching we had yesterday it will take a week of fine weather to dry the soil out from its sodden state.

At least it looks as though the weather might get warmer and more settled towards the end of the week - though at the moment the uncertainty level of forecasts is very high.
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
DEW
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24 April 2023 07:01:15

Beginning of May and still deep blues across the north on the 850mb charts (on GFS at least).
Can we have some spring please?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Blue still there on the WX charts this morning, though showing signs of retreating from Scandinavia at least (they've had a long cold winter there). The cold-ish pool in week 1 has moved E-wards to Baltic and central Europe and in week 2 is being squeezed back N-wards between mild Atlantic air advancing across France (not quite into UK) and some very warm stuff around the Urals. Rain in both weeks fairly general in patches across Europe including Britain. Meanwhile The Star's headline is for four heatwaves and 26C in May - wonder what model they're using🤣

GFS Op - Britain under a col between LP over Norway and in the Atlantic, the former dominant to start with, the latter later on; then a pressure rise from Fri 28th generates a broader area of HP for Britain until Thu 4th when LP traverses N of Scotland to Norway bringing back those unwanted NE-lies again by Wed 10th. 

ECM - slower than GFS to promote pressure rise around the 28th but resumes similarity later. FAX agrees with this and keeps a complex of fronts over England all the way through to 28th, throwing in a Channel Low 1010mb on Wed 26th for good measure.

GEFS - current cold snap disposed of by Fri 28th with a burst of rain at that time, then good agreement  (less so in Scotland) on temps a little above norm to Thu 4th when variation sets in  though the mean temp stays near seasonal norm. In the S, fairly dry after 28th, some ens members wet after 4th.; in the N more chance of rain at any time on and after 28th. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
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fairweather
24 April 2023 17:23:26

Yes indeed. In my case to mow the lawn (6 inches high already) and deal with the weeds which are flowering and going to seed in their dozens. Though after the drenching we had yesterday it will take a week of fine weather to dry the soil out from its sodden state.

At least it looks as though the weather might get warmer and more settled towards the end of the week - though at the moment the uncertainty level of forecasts is very high.

Originally Posted by: AJ* 


Sounds good to me. Ideal time to start up a wild flower meadow. 😀
S.Essex, 42m ASL
DEW
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25 April 2023 07:15:35
JET stream strong and persistent through the Channel this week but after that much weaker and less focused than was shown a few days ago, tending to form extreme N-S loops, one of which could affect Britain around Mon 8th.

WX temps; 'blue areas' have all but disappeared by week 2, however a large area of below average temps continues to stick over continental Europe, Britain on the fringe of this looks to be near norm but not warm - and the warming over France noted yesterday for week 2 has retreated to Spain. Rain quite general exc Spain in week 1, a change for week 2 as a very dry area develops from the Baltic through Britain to W France; rain in Spain and E Europe.

GFS Op - for this week an LP, itself static in the Atlantic projects troughs across Britain (FAX makes more of these, definite for S England on Fri and Scotland on Sat) after which a general rise of pressure through to Mon 8th with HP centre usually off E Scotland. The HP then shifts W-wards to lie off Ireland with NE-lies esp in S England (but unlike yesterday these originate from the Baltic not from the Arctic)

ECM - similar to GFS but the HP is less well defined and at first allows some N-ly air to drift S around Mon 1st

GEFS - temps back up to seasonal norm by Fri 28th after which close to or a little above norm; good ens agreement in the S to Mon 1st, less agreement for the N, then the usual spread of outcomes. A spike of rain around the 28th, then fairly dry for most ens members (somewhat more rain  possible in the N)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
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Ally Pally Snowman
25 April 2023 17:09:37
Models seem keen on yet another cold plunge . We cant buy any warmth this year.  The late SSW really buggering up Spring. Could be a few more weeks before we can get a sustained warm pattern. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
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DEW
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26 April 2023 07:05:02
WX temp charts back to those of a couple of days back. The pronounced shrinkage of the freezing areas accelerates into week 2, the below-average cool area slowly shifts E-wards from Germany to Poland, and the N-ward movement of warmth from Spain up through Biscay is re-instated. Britain on the borderline between a little above average in England and a little below in Scotland. Week 1 rainfall generally across Europe except Spain; week 2 a very dry area in the Baltic with modest amounts of rain elsewhere; for Britain mainly the E coast.

GFS Op - Britain sitting between LP on Atlantic & LP in N Scandinavia, the former having more effect on British weather with SW-lies and the latter filling until Mon 1st when a rise of pressure becomes significant centred northern N Sea 1040mb Wed 3rd with SE-lies for much of that week. By Sun 7th, the HP has retreated E-wards allowing a shallow LP to approach Cornwall. This connects with developments on the Atlantic and on Thu 11th there is a trough from Iceland 1000mb to Spain 1005mb with Britain in slack LP between these. [I've noticed today that the GFS chart has re-drawn national boundaries and shows e.g. Ukraine and Belarus as separate countries; not sure how long this has been done]

ECM - similar to GFS until later on when the HP is slower to withdraw E-wards and is still present end-of-run Sat 6th as 1025mb ridge from Britain to Germany, and LP over Portugal, not Cornwall

GFS - a rise in temps to norm, indeed briefly above, with good agreement of ens members to Wed 3rd, mean then at norm or a little above esp around Sun 7th with increased uncertainty, a couple of v. cold outliers later on. Dry for a day or two either side of Thu 4th, small amounts in many ens members either side of this but  most likely today or tomorrow
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
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Caz
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26 April 2023 08:06:35
Thankfully it’s stayed dry while our furniture’s been on the garden in the tarpaulin garage. It’s been much nicer than expected. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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DEW
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27 April 2023 07:12:16
WX charts; by week 2 the blue [freezing] area is just s small blob in N Norway but the cool extension S-wards to the Balkans persists through both weeks with Britain on the edge experiencing average temps for early May. Neither the super-hot weather in S Spain nor another similarly hot patch near the Caspian making much progress N-wards. A dry-ish patch hangs around near the  Baltic (week 1 also in Spain) with modest amounts of rain elsewhere.

GFS Op - pressure rising across Britain after today eventually 1030mb all of Britain Wed 3rd. It drifts off E-wards, and then (with the exception of a briefly passing LP 990mb NI Tue 9th/Wed 10th) the pattern is of HP from mid-Atlantic to Baltic, LP between Scotland Iceland, and Britain under mild SW-lies through to Sat 13th May.

ECM - Like GFS to Wed 3rd but then LP ca 995 mb sets up W of Ireland and stays there until at least Sat 7th with weak S-lies for Britain.

GEFS - mild for a few days then temps near norm through to Sun 14th with good agreement (just one or two cold outliers). Occasional small amounts of rain, best prospects of dry weather 3rd/4th, wettest in NW. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
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DEW
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28 April 2023 07:11:41
WX charts; by week 2 the blue [freezing] area is just s small blob, today's chart placing it in N Russia; the cold pool over continental Europe slowly retreats N-wards as warmth in the Med expands, but also very slowly. Britain continues near average. Dry from Portugal to S England to Baltic in week 1; dry in Iberia, Biscay and the E Med in week 2; patchy rain elsewhere but nothing dramatic.

GFS Op - pressure over Britain rising to 1030mb N Sea by Wed 3rd while LP stays distant near Newfoundland and in the White Sea. It re-shapes itself as a ridge from Azores to Norway by Mon 8th with Britain under SW-lies before declining S-wards. For  the following week a rather flabby HP is near S England and equally weak LP near Scotland with a generally W-ly flow, threatening to turn into the N in the last chart Sun 14th.

ECM - differs after Wed 3rd as it brings in LP from the Atlantic 1000mb near Cornwall and/or Eire from Fri 5th and a poorly defined ridge of HP aligned with the N Sea on Mon 8th

GEFS - temps near norm or a little above (esp around Thu 4th), mainly dry at first in the SE but some rain elsewhere, increasing likelihood of rain everywhere from Sun 7th. 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
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DEW
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29 April 2023 07:38:59
WX charts show the really hot weather in Spain and the Caspian in week 1 retreating slowly S-wards in week 2 at the same time as the small amount of really cold weather in the far N retreats to the far NE, leaving most of Europe with broadly similar temps wrt to the norm however with a slight bias to the cooler side. A dry area affecting the W coast of Europe with patchy rain elsewhere in week 1 gives  way to a heavier band of rain Ireland- France - Alps - Ukraine with the dry area focused on S Sweden.

GFS Op - pressure rises over Britain to Wed 3rd 1030mb E Anglia with LP well to SW & NE. This translates into the common pattern of an Azores-Norway ridge Sun 7th. This breaks apart as LP traverses Britain Thu 11th (1000mb Ireland) and by Mon 15th leaving a shallow trough of LP aligned NW-SE .

ECM - the LP on the Atlantic pushes a trough in the direction of Britain after Sun 7th bit it looks as if HP will hang on, at least until  end-of-run Tue 9th.

GEFS - temps close to norm, with brief warmer spell in the S Thu 4th, and good agreement between ens members. Dry at first exc one short burst of rain in Scotland, small amounts of rain in many ens members from Fri 5th, most probable around Tue 9th
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
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DEW
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30 April 2023 07:06:41
WX temps show Spain remaining hot, the far NE of Russia cold, the cool patch affecting Europe moving E-wards to an area between Finland and Greece, leaving W Europe close to a mild average. rain patchily across Europe in week 1 replaced by definitely dry weather in Spain and the Baltic, with an area of heavy rain Atlantic - Ireland - France - Balkans - Turkey.

JET not doing much at the moment but developing a strong streak aimed at SW England Wed 10th and on into Europe Sun 14th.

GFS Op - as previously HP developing 1030mb N Sea Wed 3rd, drifting N-wards but pressure remaining fairly high for the rest of the week. Areas of LP then increasingly invade 1005mb Cornwall Tue 9th, 1000 mb moving NW to SE Britain Thu/Fri 11th/12th (with some quite cold air), 1000 mb Aberdeen Sun 14th, before a strong pressure rise and warmer 1025mb England Tue 16th.

ECM - As GFS, but Atlantic troughs start earlier 1005mb S Ireland Fri 5th and an extended trough from the NW by Tue 9th, 1005mb England the following day.

GEFS - in the S dry and warm to Fri 5th followed by a long period of near normal temps and episodes of rain in most ens members, heaviest around Thu 11th. Scotland flips cool rather than warm at first but otherwise the same. Generally the west gets the most rain




 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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30 April 2023 07:07:26
WX temps show Spain remaining hot, the far NE of Russia cold, the cool patch affecting Europe moving E-wards to an area between Finland and Greece, leaving W Europe close to a mild average. rain patchily across Europe in week 1 replaced by definitely dry weather in Spain and the Baltic, with an area of heavy rain Atlantic - Ireland - France - Balkans - Turkey.

JET not doing much at the moment but developing a strong streak aimed at SW England Wed 10th and on into Europe Sun 14th.

GFS Op - as previously HP developing 1030mb N Sea Wed 3rd, drifting N-wards but pressure remaining fairly high for the rest of the week. Areas of LP then increasingly invade 1005mb Cornwall Tue 9th, 1000 mb moving NW to SE Britain Thu/Fri 11th/12th (with some quite cold air), 1000 mb Aberdeen Sun 14th, before a strong pressure rise and warmer 1025mb England Tue 16th.

ECM - As GFS, but Atlantic troughs start earlier 1005mb S Ireland Fri 5th and an extended trough from the NW by Tue 9th, 1005mb England the following day.

GEFS - in the S dry and warm to Fri 5th followed by a long period of near normal temps and episodes of rain in most ens members, heaviest around Thu 11th. Scotland flips cool rather than warm at first but otherwise the same. Generally the west gets the most rain




 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
Bertwhistle
30 April 2023 12:29:20
Thanks DEW for the summary.

There is remarkably little spread in the GEFS in the later stages of the run- quite unusual, possibly.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
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DEW
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01 May 2023 07:08:15
Spot the difference from yesterday! WX temps show Spain remaining hot, the far NE of Russia cold, the cool patch affecting Europe moving E-wards to an area between Finland and Greece, leaving W Europe close to or somewhat cooler than average, Britain certainly down a bit in today's chart. Rain patchily across Europe in week 1 replaced by definitely dry weather in Spain and the Baltic, with areas of heavy rain Ireland - France - Balkans - Turkey; less rain now shown at the W end of this patch, more at the E end.

GFS Op - HP to N Sea 1030mb Wed 3rd, troughs making slow progress from the W and filling as they reach Britain (1005mb W Scotland Sun 7th, 1010 mb C England Wed 10th, 1015mb Cornwall Mon 15th) so rather slack pressure overall for a couple of weeks (April showers in May?). Some N-ly influence towards the end of the period before a promise of HP from the SW Wed 17th.

ECM - similar to GFS but the troughs of LP stay somewhat further W until Wed 10th when 1005mb crosses Scotland to the N Sea. The slack pressure pattern with pressure on the low side is a common feature.

GEFS - A brief milder spell at the start of this week in the S but cooler in N, otherwise close to norm throughout (slightly milder in N & E for a while after Fri 5th) with remarkably good agreement between ens members, just op & control a degree or two lower after Mon 15th. Most ens members have some rain any day from Sat 6th, not much in the SE while more of it in the W, becoming less frequent from Sat 13th, but a few runs with isolated heavier spikes in the SE esp near Wed 10th.


 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
01 May 2023 07:33:50
Underwhelming Spring set to continue.  With HLB still abundant in the output.  Jet Stream way south still. Consistent warm settled Spring weather still a way off. Nothing terribly wet or cold just nothing warm either.  Zzzzzzzzzzz.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Taylor1740
01 May 2023 13:37:09
Take a look at that 6z run - grim viewing for those wanting to see Summer start soon.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
fairweather
01 May 2023 14:15:31

Spot the difference from yesterday! WX temps show Spain remaining hot, the far NE of Russia cold, the cool patch affecting Europe moving E-wards to an area between Finland and Greece, leaving W Europe close to or somewhat cooler than average, Britain certainly down a bit in today's chart. Rain patchily across Europe in week 1 replaced by definitely dry weather in Spain and the Baltic, with areas of heavy rain Ireland - France - Balkans - Turkey; less rain now shown at the W end of this patch, more at the E end.

GFS Op - HP to N Sea 1030mb Wed 3rd, troughs making slow progress from the W and filling as they reach Britain (1005mb W Scotland Sun 7th, 1010 mb C England Wed 10th, 1015mb Cornwall Mon 15th) so rather slack pressure overall for a couple of weeks (April showers in May?). Some N-ly influence towards the end of the period before a promise of HP from the SW Wed 17th.

ECM - similar to GFS but the troughs of LP stay somewhat further W until Wed 10th when 1005mb crosses Scotland to the N Sea. The slack pressure pattern with pressure on the low side is a common feature.

GEFS - A brief milder spell at the start of this week in the S but cooler in N, otherwise close to norm throughout (slightly milder in N & E for a while after Fri 5th) with remarkably good agreement between ens members, just op & control a degree or two lower after Mon 15th. Most ens members have some rain any day from Sat 6th, not much in the SE while more of it in the W, becoming less frequent from Sat 13th, but a few runs with isolated heavier spikes in the SE esp near Wed 10th.


 

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Hmm, a bit worrying as I am going to Bulgaria middle of next week on a bird watching trip. Same week last year apparently was 24-26 C every day and dry and sunny. Climatically it should be mainly dry and averaging about 20C. Showin some rain and 15C atm. Still time to change if forecasts at 10 days are as unreliable as they are for here though!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
DEW
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02 May 2023 07:39:35
WX temp summary still shrinking the freezing weather in the far north ('It's dead but it won't lie down'!) and the large cold pool to its south stretches down from Finland to Ukraine, in the latter some 8C below norm. The rest of Europe north of the Alps in week 1 and all of Europe in week 2 looking average but not specially warm. There is a push of warmth from the south into Biscay in week 1 but it dies away, and something warmer into Ukraine in week 2. Rain in week 1 as yesterday, in a band from Ireland to Greece; in week 2 this shrinks in area but becomes very heavy over the Balkans, with the rest of Europe becoming drier but not completely so.

GFS Op - current HP withdrawing to Norway by Sat 6th while Atlantic LP south of Iceland pushes some weak troughs forward across Britain (more a case of slack low pressure than anything focused) until HP develops from the SW Sun 14th to cover Britain 1030mb Wed 17th and LP (as above) centred in the Balkans.

ECM - similar to GFS at first but the final frame does show a trough from the Atlantic successfully  developing a centre 995mb Western Isles Fri 12th with extension north to Faeroes.

GEFS - above norm in south for a couple of days but otherwise generally mean temp close to norm through to Fri 17th with good support from ens members, if anything milder for the first week (esp in the north) and cooler later. Rain present and frequent in most ens members from Fri 5th - the 'little and often' suggests a showery regime.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
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GezM
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02 May 2023 07:56:21
Central Europe still stubbornly hanging on to below average temperatures according to the latest Wx 8 day chart. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Jiries
02 May 2023 19:44:53

Central Europe still stubbornly hanging on to below average temperatures according to the latest Wx 8 day chart. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 



Europe was warming up nicely in Feb like 21C reached in Ukraine and high teens everywhere including here up to 15C.  SSW had arrived and destroyed it so leaving now just over 6 weeks to the longest day, the sun position is like end of July so that a worrying sign of no warm and vast wasted chances for warm weather now.  Hope next year models will not bring the SSW ever again, period.
Nick Gilly
02 May 2023 20:06:28

Europe was warming up nicely in Feb like 21C reached in Ukraine and high teens everywhere including here up to 15C.  SSW had arrived and destroyed it so leaving now just over 6 weeks to the longest day, the sun position is like end of July so that a worrying sign of no warm and vast wasted chances for warm weather now.  Hope next year models will not bring the SSW ever again, period.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



One word for you Jiries:

1975.

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