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White Meadows
24 November 2023 19:48:14
Trends people trends.

Looking increasingly likely December will have potential for something memorable for someone. Especially not Met office have started talking more bullishly in the mid and long rangers.

For me, late autumn kerfuffle or not, the main driver is this years El Niño profile which is very close to that of Nov 2009.

 
+1
White Meadows
24 November 2023 19:58:48

Mean 850s running at or below -5 for 10 days. The ground truth might not reach everyone’s expectations but that’s a decent effort at any time in any winter let alone at the end of Nov into early Dec.
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


850’s weren’t that low in 62/63. It was the continual build up of cold and sustained sypnotics that lead to that record breaking winter.
 
marting
24 November 2023 20:03:34

I think it may be a thing where it's a meteorological impossibility for your area and mine to get a great & snowy spell at the same time!

Neither Nov 93 nor the 2018 bfte delivered anything notable here. And, as I've said before, Jan 87 here was dry as a nun's gusset.

March 2006 had a couple of good snowfalls, December 2009 saw about 12cm of level snow from the 19th to 27th, we had 16cm fall on 17th Dec 10 and stay past Xmas, and both Jan & Mar 2013 were very snowy here (IIRC, 3 falls of +10cm plus one of 5cm and other one or two light coverings). Oh, plus a freak fall on Boxing Day 2014 that magicked us about 7cm.

I don't think Sheppey/Kent got any of that. But you've got you own collection of falls that didn't happen here.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



It is even amazing at how different it can be between the Wirral and St Helen’s. Jan 1987 was making here with -6 and deep snow, but then missed most of the 17 Dec 2010 snow. Although Dec 2010 was the coldest day time temps here.
Martin
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
jhall
24 November 2023 21:48:27

850’s weren’t that low in 62/63. It was the continual build up of cold and sustained sypnotics that lead to that record breaking winter.
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Because easterlies haven't been warmed near the surface by a long passage over the a mild like northerlies have, there tends to be much less difference between surface and 850mb temperatures.
Cranleigh, Surrey
White Meadows
24 November 2023 22:24:50
Astonishing 18z. 
widespread winteriness a week today. 

GFS been down the pub tonight?
nsrobins
24 November 2023 23:17:02

850’s weren’t that low in 62/63. It was the continual build up of cold and sustained sypnotics that lead to that record breaking winter.
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



The first 62/63 reference?
That should put a mokka on it 😂
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
fairweather
24 November 2023 23:37:44

I think it may be a thing where it's a meteorological impossibility for your area and mine to get a great & snowy spell at the same time!

Neither Nov 93 nor the 2018 bfte delivered anything notable here. And, as I've said before, Jan 87 here was dry as a nun's gusset.

March 2006 had a couple of good snowfalls, December 2009 saw about 12cm of level snow from the 19th to 27th, we had 16cm fall on 17th Dec 10 and stay past Xmas, and both Jan & Mar 2013 were very snowy here (IIRC, 3 falls of +10cm plus one of 5cm and other one or two light coverings). Oh, plus a freak fall on Boxing Day 2014 that magicked us about 7cm.

I don't think Sheppey/Kent got any of that. But you've got you own collection of falls that didn't happen here.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Yes, I think when Retron talks of the 1980's we are talking epic cold and deep snow and big drifts. These were really shorter lived versions of '63 and '47 in the S.E corner and there has been nothing much on that scale since if you discount spells of a few days or so.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Quantum
25 November 2023 00:45:55

I think it may be a thing where it's a meteorological impossibility for your area and mine to get a great & snowy spell at the same time!

Neither Nov 93 nor the 2018 bfte delivered anything notable here. And, as I've said before, Jan 87 here was dry as a nun's gusset.

March 2006 had a couple of good snowfalls, December 2009 saw about 12cm of level snow from the 19th to 27th, we had 16cm fall on 17th Dec 10 and stay past Xmas, and both Jan & Mar 2013 were very snowy here (IIRC, 3 falls of +10cm plus one of 5cm and other one or two light coverings). Oh, plus a freak fall on Boxing Day 2014 that magicked us about 7cm.

I don't think Sheppey/Kent got any of that. But you've got you own collection of falls that didn't happen here.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



I think the synoptic situation to provide snow in the SE is really quite different to the NW. In fact in general you can take this to an even greater extreme, returning polar maritime flows (cold south westerlies) are basically useless to anywhere in the UK outside of the scottish hills, but it seems to basically be the only way places like Cork in S Ireland ever get significant snow!

Another example for me, north westerlies are useless for convection as are 'stuff coming in from the SW into cold air' which is probably the opposite for you. For me I really do require an easterly component and frontal snow really has to come from the S/SE or west and not the SW which tends to be only good for anywhere south west of the pennines.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Perthite1
25 November 2023 04:40:07
We have a very complicated and unusual pressure pattern across Australia at the moment. An almost stationary blocking high in the southern ocean and complex trough features across Western Australia which have also become essentially stationary. The East in a moist easterly pattern experiencing showers and storms, not standard El Niño conditions. Interesting to see the jet stream pattern across the Northern hemisphere also becoming very loopy if not cut off during next week. 
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 November 2023 07:53:28
WX temp charts keep the cold air in place for W Europe for the next 2 weeks, freezing as far west as E France and below norm everywhere except Spain & Ukraine. In week 2 something much colder still appears in Finland and N Russia. Rain/snow fall pattern much as yesterday, week 1 in a broad band across Europe from Britain to Turkey, week 2 splitting into an Atlantic part and a heavier part in the E Mediterranean.

Current snow cover for most of Scandinavia and as far west as Poland https://www.eldoradoweather.com/snow-ice-cover.html 

GFS Op - shallow LP tracking E-wards tomorrow 995mb off E Anglia by Mon and out of the way near Ukraine by Wed 29th at which time new LP developing off N Ireland and running SE-wards 995mb Kent Fri 1st and bringing in some N-lies behind it as it merges with the semi-permanent LP over Scandinavia. HP then develops over SW Britain 1030mb Wed 6th with mild-looking SW-lies at first but as it tracks to N Norway 1035mb Mon 11th something cooler from the SE assisted by LP coming in from the Atlantic towards Biscay.

ECM - is like GFS at first, uncertain about the treatment of the LP on Wed 29th but converging with GFS again on Fri 1st. This model show no indication of HP after that., just a broad slack area of LP.

GEM agrees more closely with GFS, but making LP Fri 1st deeper and in the final stages placing any developing HP on the Atlantic so N-lies persist at least to Tue 5th.

GEFS - slight changes from yesterday; the milder blip with rain on Mon 27th is still there (just affecting England), the second rainfall peak  (but snow for Scotland and hills in n England?) Fri 1st is less well defined and there is good ens agreement on the cold spell staying to Tue 5th with mostly dry weather apart from the foregoing two episodes. After this the ens agreement breaks down, but the mean returns to norm sooner than shown in yesterday's forecast, and (mostly) rain appears in more ens members than previously. esp in the SW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Joe Bloggs
25 November 2023 07:54:55
Morning everyone. Fascinating output at the moment.

My favourite chart this morning is this relatively short range one from the ECM det run. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_78_1.png 

I’m looking at you Eastern Scotland - especially Edinburgh /Lothians , Borders, Tayside.

This is very close to the holy grail of lake effect North Sea snow. At the moment, I don’t think the uppers are quite cold enough, but look at those 850’s approaching from Norway… 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_78_2.png 

Keep an eye out for short term upgrades - as it would not take much for a shift to a very snowy scenario for eastern Scotland. We are not there yet.
 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
25 November 2023 08:09:48
Thursday/ Friday still looking like a decent chance for some snow. GFS snow rows as follows for the 30th/1st:
Aberdeen 17
Manchester 15
London 10

Ecm looks like a cold run this morning ice days by the end.


 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
CField
25 November 2023 08:09:48
Great model viewing at present......the prospects for a memorable cold snap for the UK seems like a game of darts at present.If you keep hitting the 20 zone you will get lots of 60s 100s etc but eventually you will get a 180 providing you don't go in the 1 or 5...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
+2
Crepuscular Ray
25 November 2023 08:20:23

Morning everyone. Fascinating output at the moment.

My favourite chart this morning is this relatively short range one from the ECM det run. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_78_1.png 

I’m looking at you Eastern Scotland - especially Edinburgh /Lothians , Borders, Tayside.

This is very close to the holy grail of lake effect North Sea snow. At the moment, I don’t think the uppers are quite cold enough, but look at those 850’s approaching from Norway… 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_78_2.png 

Keep an eye out for short term upgrades - as it would not take much for a shift to a very snowy scenario for eastern Scotland. We are not there yet.
 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Stop it Joe! You are teasing us! 😂

I agree with you though, my favourite weather, heavy North Sea snow showers. I just hope the uppers are low enough 🤞
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Joe Bloggs
25 November 2023 08:34:18

Stop it Joe! You are teasing us! 😂

I agree with you though, my favourite weather, heavy North Sea snow showers. I just hope the uppers are low enough 🤞

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 



hahahhaa. I still have so much love for Edinburgh , especially after living there in Dec 2010. Even more beautiful in the snow.

You still need upgrades for snow in the city itself. You’d want more of an easterly, so ideally the high north of Scandinavia easing its way south slightly, which would give a more easterly tilt and hopefully allow for the very cold uppers to make it further west. 

Low lying Lothian probably needs uppers -9C or lower, -11C right on the coast. Your location maybe slightly less cold given your altitude. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+1
UncleAlbert
25 November 2023 09:24:11
It does not look like a 1981 or a 2010 at this stage, but with the pattern rather flabby in the coming couple of weeks and plenty of polar feed, wintry interest for many of I would have thought.  ECM and GEM seem to be the more bullish of the 3 longer term offerings at the moment for prolonging the colder conditions.

Anyway, to kick off the coming winter season I thought you guys might appreciate this lovely piece of art this morning.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid0gMrt6nMxisGU181Nz8A7TQfz8h5BaS9bYijfUAswkcpZ7rG3rzSmLA863U9EcqJal&id=100077522237019 
+1
Rob K
25 November 2023 09:34:42

We have a very complicated and unusual pressure pattern across Australia at the moment. An almost stationary blocking high in the southern ocean and complex trough features across Western Australia which have also become essentially stationary. The East in a moist easterly pattern experiencing showers and storms, not standard El Niño conditions. Interesting to see the jet stream pattern across the Northern hemisphere also becoming very loopy if not cut off during next week. 

Originally Posted by: Perthite1 



I sometimes look at the GFS pressure maps for Australia - just checked it out again today. They always so look weird to British eyes - “where are all the isobars?!”

A landmass the size of Western Europe and the pressure range across the entire thing is 15 mb!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
25 November 2023 09:36:31

Great model viewing at present......the prospects for a memorable cold snap for the UK seems like a game of darts at present.If you keep hitting the 20 zone you will get lots of 60s 100s etc but eventually you will get a 180 providing you don't go in the 1 or 5...

Originally Posted by: CField 



Not a darts follower, so this is french to me!

 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
25 November 2023 09:38:31

It does not look like a 1981 or a 2010 at this stage, but with the pattern rather flabby in the coming couple of weeks and plenty of polar feed, wintry interest for many of I would have thought.  ECM and GEM seem to be the more bullish of the 3 longer term offerings at the moment for prolonging the colder conditions.

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 



Yes, all looks a bit nondescript. Just hope its not cloudy and dank, and we get some seasonal hard frosts away from the coasts


 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Hungry Tiger
25 November 2023 10:32:09

We have a very complicated and unusual pressure pattern across Australia at the moment. An almost stationary blocking high in the southern ocean and complex trough features across Western Australia which have also become essentially stationary. The East in a moist easterly pattern experiencing showers and storms, not standard El Niño conditions. Interesting to see the jet stream pattern across the Northern hemisphere also becoming very loopy if not cut off during next week. 

Originally Posted by: Perthite1 



I've heard you've had something like 5 or 6 days in a row in Perth of 38C and over this in November which is incredible.  🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Rob K
25 November 2023 11:39:07
Just had a look at the CFS model, usually the last refuge of hope when the other output is awful.

And it's the reverse story this time - while the short-range output looks quite interesting, the CFS is ghastly with a flat Eurohigh pattern almost right through the winter. There is a rather cold northerly in mid February though. 🙂
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Quantum
25 November 2023 15:53:38
Upgrades in terms of upper air temp and synoptic pattern on the ARPEGE and ICON 12zs
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
25 November 2023 16:05:25
GFS seemingly out on its own in terms of strengthening that greenland trough.

UKMO, ICON and ARPEGE all have it weaker and dropping south much more quickly. 12Z GFS is a slight upgrade on the 6Z though.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Jiries
25 November 2023 16:08:32

Upgrades in terms of upper air temp and synoptic pattern on the ARPEGE and ICON 12zs
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



It usually does upgrade when time come nearer as usually starting at -4C to -8C the most results.  I hope this coming cold spell are much better than last year fog infested dry cold spell that stopped my area from seeing any snow events.   As long there some cold winds to keep fog out and allow snowfalls to snow showers events to occur on this coming cold spell.
Quantum
25 November 2023 16:12:28
GEM is different to all of them, intensifies the trough rapidly but further south to create a widespread severe snow event.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
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