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Ally Pally Snowman
24 November 2023 09:10:59
Solidly cold set of ECM ensembles.  Nothing spectacular but chilly enough that a snow event could pop up.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
24 November 2023 09:43:36
For the first time this winter a FAX chart (at T+120) is showing sub-528hPa air over Kent. IIRC that's a good deal earlier than in recent years.
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
DPower
24 November 2023 10:23:07
Low on the 06z gfs trending further south similar to ukmo showing some wintry weather in the south at t144. Give it another day and I would expect the low will miss us to the south. Can easily see future runs trending colder with stronger heights to the north focusing more in the griceland area rather than Greenland itself with a colder and colder feed from the north northeast.
Brian Gaze
24 November 2023 10:26:09
I suppose the question is are we seeing late autumn kerfuffle before the flat winter pattern establishes for much of December, January and February. Or not?
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Tractor Boy
24 November 2023 10:28:07

I suppose the question is are we seeing late autumn kerfuffle before the flat winter pattern establishes for much of December, January and February. Or not?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



I suppose the question is 'Is that the question?".
Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
+1
Rob K
24 November 2023 10:51:22

I suppose the question is are we seeing late autumn kerfuffle before the flat winter pattern establishes for much of December, January and February. Or not?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


6Z GFS run is certainly going that way with the familiar orange taking hold over the Azores.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
24 November 2023 10:53:06

I suppose the question is 'Is that the question?".

Originally Posted by: Tractor Boy 


It's a question and a good one.
GFS playing around with keeping decent HLB around Greenland. While that's still present, all possibilities remain.
Of course the form horse will be early shenanigans and teases before a raging PV and mobile westerlies set in early Dec.
Or not - and that's not a question 😀
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
24 November 2023 11:08:16

6Z GFS run is certainly going that way with the familiar orange taking hold over the Azores.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Yes slightly underwhelming 6z .
I'm not expecting anything much from this cold spell but I wasn't expecting much from last December and we hit the jackpot here so you never know. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
CField
24 November 2023 12:13:32
Nailed it there...we will soon know the asnswer to that.....

I suppose the question is are we seeing late autumn kerfuffle before the flat winter pattern establishes for much of December, January and February. Or not?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
DPower
24 November 2023 12:40:41
It has been well advertised now for last week or more that we are likely to see a Canadian warming taking place in the stratosphere which displaces the pv over to the northeast which promotes much higher chances of high latitude blocking to our north and northwest.
If this warming persists for long enough it can lead to a full blown SSW. Zonal winds in the stratosphere have been near or at record high levels during November but are expected to drop markedly as we go into and over December.
Therefor a prolonged locked in cold spell is certainly not out of the question. 
Great model viewing to see how this evolves.

 
+1
squish
24 November 2023 12:53:48

It has been well advertised now for last week or more that we are likely to see a Canadian warming taking place in the stratosphere which displaces the pv over to the northeast which promotes much higher chances of high latitude blocking to our north and northwest.
If this warming persists for long enough it can lead to a full blown SSW. Zonal winds in the stratosphere have been near or at record high levels during November but are expected to drop markedly as we go into and over December.
Therefor a prolonged locked in cold spell is certainly not out of the question. 
Great model viewing to see how this evolves.

 

Originally Posted by: DPower 



Yes. Great post.  Very fascinating period unfolding . Brian is right with his question and a 'flattening' of the pattern would be the overwhelming climatological favourite outcome . However nothing is that usual (or unusual) anymore so expect anything ( and everything)
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Jiries
24 November 2023 16:13:35

It has been well advertised now for last week or more that we are likely to see a Canadian warming taking place in the stratosphere which displaces the pv over to the northeast which promotes much higher chances of high latitude blocking to our north and northwest.
If this warming persists for long enough it can lead to a full blown SSW. Zonal winds in the stratosphere have been near or at record high levels during November but are expected to drop markedly as we go into and over December.
Therefor a prolonged locked in cold spell is certainly not out of the question. 
Great model viewing to see how this evolves.

 

Originally Posted by: DPower 



If SSW occur much earlier then better now than in Spring time.  
Retron
24 November 2023 16:27:38
The current charts are fascinating. It reminds me very much of the run up to the 2010 cold spell, with lows moving SE'wards across or close to the UK, displaced by ridging to the NW. It's an unusual pattern and once which isn't seen that often - but we've seen quite a lot of unusual patterns recently, most recently the southerly tracking storm that was Ciaran (and subsequent systems which went even further south).

Not that I want or expect a repeat of 2010, mind you... it'll be interesting to see how this pans out!
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
Saint Snow
24 November 2023 16:55:54

T
Not that I want or expect a repeat of 2010, mind you...

Originally Posted by: Retron 




😮

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Retron
24 November 2023 17:01:21

😮

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Remember, down here 2010 was a damp squib - a bit of slush, some wet snow and then oodles of rain to end the month.

Give me the 80s, or November 1993, or the Beast from 2018 any day!

I appreciate for most of the UK the memories will be quite different, mind you... 😄
Leysdown, north Kent
+3
overland
24 November 2023 17:33:06

I suppose the question is are we seeing late autumn kerfuffle before the flat winter pattern establishes for much of December, January and February. Or not?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



That's a defeatest approach as I prefer to look at the other way round so my question would be "is this the year that's going to be different?!" For all of the last 12 years the answer has been no, so the season's highlight has been the  anticipation at the beginning with the hope that it will not be flat, zonal pattern with a Euro high and a Icelandic low dominating until spring.  
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
Brian Gaze
24 November 2023 17:34:00

Remember, down here 2010 was a damp squib - a bit of slush, some wet snow and then oodles of rain to end the month.

Give me the 80s, or November 1993, or the Beast from 2018 any day!

I appreciate for most of the UK the memories will be quite different, mind you... 😄

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Indeed. I've made the point numerous times. Around my patch 2009-10 was incomparably better. It brought 3 or 4 heavy falls of snow between mid Dec and mid Jan. Another fall, of a few cm, occured in February. By contrast, December 2010 delivered 15cm shortly before Christmas, but that was it. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Rob K
24 November 2023 17:39:57

Indeed. I've made the point numerous times. Around my patch 2009-10 was incomparably better. It brought 3 or 4 heavy falls of snow between mid Dec and mid Jan. Another fall, of a few cm, occured in February. By contrast, December 2010 delivered 15cm shortly before Christmas, but that was it. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Jan 2010 was the holy grail here. December 2010 was cold but that was about it.

Back to 2023 and the 12Z GFS suggests that the late autumn kerfuffle (©  B Gaze) will be brief, with normal westerly service resumed by the end of the first week of December. But a fortnight is a long time in weather!
And there's a chance that just about anyone could see some snow before that, with a coldish and messy synoptic picture.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
24 November 2023 17:52:23

Jan 2010 was the holy grail here. December 2010 was cold but that was about it.

Back to 2023 and the 12Z GFS suggests that the late autumn kerfuffle (©  B Gaze) will be brief, with normal westerly service resumed by the end of the first week of December. But a fortnight is a long time in weather!
And there's a chance that just about anyone could see some snow before that, with a coldish and messy synoptic picture.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Bearing in mind too what DPower mentioned on the last page about the possibility of a SSW taking place over Canada as we head into December. These events are notorious for throwing the model output into total confusion and, assuming they happen as forecast it often takes the models several days to fully get to grips with what if any effect there will be on the pressure patterns. There may well be a relatively quick return to milder , westerly weather early in December, but is a very long time away in weather forecasting times at this moment.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
Saint Snow
24 November 2023 18:48:01

Remember, down here 2010 was a damp squib - a bit of slush, some wet snow and then oodles of rain to end the month.

Give me the 80s, or November 1993, or the Beast from 2018 any day!

I appreciate for most of the UK the memories will be quite different, mind you... 😄

Originally Posted by: Retron 




I think it may be a thing where it's a meteorological impossibility for your area and mine to get a great & snowy spell at the same time!

Neither Nov 93 nor the 2018 bfte delivered anything notable here. And, as I've said before, Jan 87 here was dry as a nun's gusset.

March 2006 had a couple of good snowfalls, December 2009 saw about 12cm of level snow from the 19th to 27th, we had 16cm fall on 17th Dec 10 and stay past Xmas, and both Jan & Mar 2013 were very snowy here (IIRC, 3 falls of +10cm plus one of 5cm and other one or two light coverings). Oh, plus a freak fall on Boxing Day 2014 that magicked us about 7cm.

I don't think Sheppey/Kent got any of that. But you've got you own collection of falls that didn't happen here.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
24 November 2023 18:49:30


Back to 2023 and the 12Z GFS suggests that the late autumn kerfuffle (©  B Gaze) will be brief, with normal westerly service resumed by the end of the first week of December. But a fortnight is a long time in weather!
And there's a chance that just about anyone could see some snow before that, with a coldish and messy synoptic picture.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 




Well that's a bucket of cold water on any excitement!

😪

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
tierradelfuego
24 November 2023 19:11:06

Jan 2010 was the holy grail here. December 2010 was cold but that was about it.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



At the time we lived in the holy grail, close to Basingstoke (not often anyone says that I know). Both winters 09&10 gave us over 10" snowfalls. I remember driving back from work in Reading and it took an hour to get from there to the AWE in Tadley, and 90 mins to do the final 2 miles to Pamber Heath. My wife got the train from London to Basingstoke, and there were no taxis so got back on the next train and went to my parents in a village outside Andover who had 2" max.
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
Brian Gaze
24 November 2023 19:16:29
GEFS 12Z snow depth charts even down here are not without interest.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
HighPressureGloom
24 November 2023 19:24:52
GEM has a widespread Ice day-day 10. 
ECMWF possibly not quite as cold at the end but with a huge North Atlantic-Greenland block.
nsrobins
24 November 2023 19:44:38
Mean 850s running at or below -5 for 10 days. The ground truth might not reach everyone’s expectations but that’s a decent effort at any time in any winter let alone at the end of Nov into early Dec.
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
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