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Gandalf The White
11 January 2024 00:21:24

No Scandy high in sight this time. That was a short lived trend. 
Instead we end up under a miserable zonal pattern later on.

 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



You are to model output analysis what King Herod was to child welfare….

🤣
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+2
fairweather
11 January 2024 00:29:16

Big spread on the ECM ENS tonight.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yep, 17th still the day that the door unlocks one way or the other.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gandalf The White
11 January 2024 00:29:32

Unfortunately the  Monday fax chart isn't great in that at its furthest point (Monday, 12z) the cold air hasn't even reached Manchester or the Wash.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



I’m pretty sure that’s in line with the MetO raw model output, isn’t it?  The 850s have been rather lower than the 500-1,000 thickness values. That short wave just south of Iceland holds the Arctic flow back a little, but it’s still the same issue, ie timing and extent of the southward movement of the Arctic air v the northward push of the milder air.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


fairweather
11 January 2024 00:30:29

I like you because you wind up some people who portray themselves as superior humans, but that’s utter nonsense I’m afraid. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


😂
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gandalf The White
11 January 2024 00:35:07

Yep, 17th still the day that the door unlocks one way or the other.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



By late on 18th only 4 out of 50 runs show the milder air reaching London. It’s really only the second push overnight 19th into 20th where a significant cluster follows the control in pushing milder air further north.

I suspect that a look at a location 50 and 100 miles further north would give a different picture.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Arbroath 1320
11 January 2024 00:44:23
GFS 18z ENS are all over the place at t240. Everything is in there from Euroslugs, to dartboard lows approaching us, to Scandi Highs.

Today's output as a whole, seems to have increased the uncertainty into the middle of next week. Impossible to predict with any certainty the outcome. 
GGTTH
+2
fairweather
11 January 2024 01:52:32
18z ensembles big improvement on 12z.  OP run once again at the top end in the critical period. Mean has fallen a bit and will fall more when op  and his friends rejoin the pack. 😀 COld reaches London a day earlier than on MO fax charts.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
11 January 2024 01:55:30
Only 4 days to go. What could possibly go wrong? 😂
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2024 04:38:50
Disappointing GFS and GEM the snow .maker low doesn't live up to its name and both bring in SW winds soon after. Crap
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
11 January 2024 04:50:14
The clean northerly has more or less disappeared - think a little high over Spain is deflecting the energy to its favourite location
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2024 04:55:34

The clean northerly has more or less disappeared - think a little high over Spain is deflecting the energy to its favourite location

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Unless a massive turnaround later looks gameover to me already. The models love to tease us coldies happens every year.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2024 05:04:05
For me the issue is the Greenland heights for whatever reason this morning they disappear incredibly quickly. No meaningful cold spell without them.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
11 January 2024 05:26:43

Unless a massive turnaround later looks gameover to me already. The models love to tease us coldies happens every year.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Unlike you to be so downbeat, you're still much more likely to see snow up there than I am here...

The GEFS show a massive range at 192, so it's still far from certain. There's everything from Atlantic SW'lies (ptb26) to ENE'lies (ptb27) to unstable northerlies (ptb15) to snow moving up from the south (ptb20).

Even though I wouldn't be at all surprised to see rain sweeping across the UK, or at least down here(!), I'm not certain enough to write it all off. I don't think anyone should be, really!

 
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
doctormog
11 January 2024 06:32:57
If you look at the ensemble data then to paraphrase or misquote reports of the cold spell’s death have been greatly exaggerated. Tiger d is still a very large amount of uncertainty hiwever the GEFS 00z mean continues to show a potentially wintry picture.

The day 4 (96 hr) mean: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU00_96_1.png 

The day 7 (168 hr) mean: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU00_168_1.png 

Of course hidden in that are some milder/colder and wetter/drier/snowier options. For what it’s worth the earlier parts of the ECM 00z op run, as I write this, are not dissimilar to the GEFS mean picture.
 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
CField
11 January 2024 06:40:58

Unlike you to be so downbeat, you're still much more likely to see snow up there than I am here...

The GEFS show a massive range at 192, so it's still far from certain. There's everything from Atlantic SW'lies (ptb26) to ENE'lies (ptb27) to unstable northerlies (ptb15) to snow moving up from the south (ptb20).

Even though I wouldn't be at all surprised to see rain sweeping across the UK, or at least down here(!), I'm not certain enough to write it all off. I don't think anyone should be, really!

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I keep telling myself we are due one...been saying that since 1987 though
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2024 06:44:34

Unlike you to be so downbeat, you're still much more likely to see snow up there than I am here...

The GEFS show a massive range at 192, so it's still far from certain. There's everything from Atlantic SW'lies (ptb26) to ENE'lies (ptb27) to unstable northerlies (ptb15) to snow moving up from the south (ptb20).

Even though I wouldn't be at all surprised to see rain sweeping across the UK, or at least down here(!), I'm not certain enough to write it all off. I don't think anyone should be, really!

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I think the fact the "Midlands snow event" seems to have disappeared already has annoyed me. 

Ecm looks better no snow event of much note but cold air looks to hang on better . Greenland high more robust. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Karl Guille
11 January 2024 06:57:04
00z ECM Op is a much colder run for the far south in FI with 850s between 4 and 10 degrees colder IMBY Just shows how much ‘potential’ remains for a cold solution. 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
nsrobins
11 January 2024 06:59:28

00z ECM Op is a much colder run for the far south in FI with 850s between 4 and 10 degrees colder IMBY Just shows how much ‘potential’ remains for a cold solution. 

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


I have nothing constructive to add, other than 120hrs seems to be the limit of credibility at the moment. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
doctormog
11 January 2024 07:10:21

I have nothing constructive to add, other than 120hrs seems to be the limit of credibility at the moment. 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Looking at the details for that time point I would say that it would be even sooner than that, although to be fair the GFS op run,  seems a little in isolation in the extent to which it brings in milder air. The European model options are definitely colder than the N American ones this morning.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2024 07:14:40
Ecm is a good run all the way this morning.  Even a day 10 looks like locked in cold for a while. We needed that.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
11 January 2024 07:18:31
After all the debate about where the snow/rain line might be on Wednesday, the entire system seems to have disappeared this morning. Charts in a real state of flux. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
marco 79
11 January 2024 07:38:00
00z has the PV  completely dissolved in 10 days time. Time will tell if leads us into a colder Feb.
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Russwirral
11 January 2024 07:40:35
Big step back down from yesterdays charts.

Back to the common theme of cold and dry for a few days, with fringe parts of rhe UK seeing some snow before the atlantic rushing in. Reality starting to firm up... 

 

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Whiteout
11 January 2024 07:47:08

Big step back down from yesterdays charts.

Back to the common theme of cold and dry for a few days, with fringe parts of rhe UK seeing some snow before the atlantic rushing in. Reality starting to firm up... 

 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Sorry, totally disagree with this, (a) reality is it hasn't happened yet, (b) I agree with Rob, the models do seem to be in a real state of flux in handling a very unusual weather pattern and (c) I can't see the Met going full on disruptive snow events mode on both deep dive and 10 day trend if they were not confident in the pattern. 

It does seem that FI is circa 4 days at present while the models get a grip.
 
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
doctormog
11 January 2024 07:51:05

Big step back down from yesterdays charts.

Back to the common theme of cold and dry for a few days, with fringe parts of rhe UK seeing some snow before the atlantic rushing in. Reality starting to firm up... 

 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Except none of that is really true especially the last point. Unless you think the GFS op runs are the only output to look at. Was it really starting to firm up on the 18z GFS output when it showed a different scenario? Is the large scatter on the GEFS things firming up? Is the ECM operational run showing a notably different scenario to the GFS run a sign of things firming up? Sorry but your post is just misleading albeit prompted by understandable frustration.

I would not describe this chart for next Thursday in the terms that you have used: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU00_168_1.png 

Uncertain definitely but the scenario you describe is only one option but many others are clearly modelled this morning. 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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