GEFS and ECM ens have 5 days of surface cold IMBY this morning with no real milder blip in the middle FWIW.
Few things obviously still catching the eye:-
1) The encroaching LP from the south west - still a variety of solutions, so anything from rain to snow to dry IMBY. ECM probably most positive for me, then GFS then UKMO I think from the precip charts. Will no doubt change again later!
2) The little LP that forms between Greenland and Iceland and swings into Scotland on the GFS, cutting off the northerly flow further south. There's again a variety of solutions for that but it could bring a more organised spell of snow for some albeit there's a fairly pronounced milder sector. GFS op shows it moving to the North of Scotland and into Norway with organised precip for Scotland and a dying front moving south with not a lot left on it. UKMO has a different pattern but does bring in a little feature from the north west next Tues/Weds that brings a spell of snow to parts of southern Scotland and northern England. Something to watch for them's up north on the assumption for northern England it's less likely LP from the south will bring frontal snow at least from Wednesdays push (not impossible though!). GEM also has a similar feature with varying amounts of snow from Scotland down to northern England.
On point 1 I think for say the Midlands south where the initial milder push ends up will shape peoples view on this cold snap/spell. IMBY if it's too far North I get 2 days of colder weather, a depressing snow to rain event (or all rain) then maybe a day or 2 of colder air before a stronger mild push with more rain. If it's further south it may bring snow or it may miss altogether but either way I probably get 5 days of cold air, which on top of this week is not too shabby. Obviously for those more in the Midlands, as some of the runs have shown there's a decent chance of a disruptive snow event - take that away and it's 5 days of mostly quiet cold weather with limited snow chances. Not bad but it's like losing £50 and finding a £5.
On point 2, the UKMO Op run would at first glance be rather good for a fairly wide slice from the Midlands north I think and if that second LP at T168 followed a similar track it'd be even better.
So to conclude a rather rambling post, cold still incoming, duration TBC but probably 5 days IMBY, more likely 7-8 days Scotland, a return to average/mild favoured after that point. Where any snow/rain sits in the south will for some make/break this, 'nothing' for some, nirvana potentially for others.
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