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Gandalf The White
02 February 2024 20:39:30

It's based on model runs right?
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



That isn’t the point: there’s a dedicated thread for discussing media reports on the weather, and that’s where you should be posting comments on the media.  Tricky huh?

😉
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Gandalf The White
02 February 2024 20:41:07

Well that's it ,early spring.

https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/watch-groundhog-day-2024-celebration-punxsutawney-phil/ 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



Possibly, if you live about 4,000 miles west of the UK.  Or possibly not.  Or possibly not for this thread…. Again….

🤔
😀

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+2
Downpour
02 February 2024 21:07:27
It looks rather mild to my eye, in the foreseeable and reliable. Many may indeed be hoping for a groundhog-inspired early spring, perhaps born of a UK high or even perhaps our old friend Uncle Barty setting up shop for what is left of this largely pointless winter. 

We shall see. Certainly banking on a cold shot progged at ten day range would seem unwise.

But, as ever, we live in hope. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+1
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
02 February 2024 21:47:05

True, in Northern towns and London especially. In the fifties and early sixties we could leave SE Essex in the morning in clear sunshine and by the time we got to East London the smog kicked in and remained till we reached our Cousins in Putney. A yellow type of dense fog for those too young to remember it.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

For those of us in the Nottinghamshire mining communities, during the 50’s and 60’s, there was the ever present smell of coal smoke during winter, especially pungent during foggy, smoggy days. The clean air act was slow to kick in here and we were late becoming a smokeless zone, due to the burning of locally produced coal. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
+2
Polar Low
02 February 2024 21:56:54

For those of us in the Nottinghamshire mining communities, during the 50’s and 60’s, there was the ever present smell of coal smoke during winter, especially pungent during foggy, smoggy days. The clean air act was slow to kick in here and we were late becoming a smokeless zone, due to the burning of locally produced coal. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 



Fogs we’re really bad here up to the late seventies so much so a number of local transport buses were often cancelled
Freezing fog was also a common hazard in winter.
we don’t seem to get either these days.
 
+2
Polar Low
02 February 2024 22:01:01

True, in Northern towns and London especially. In the fifties and early sixties we could leave SE Essex in the morning in clear sunshine and by the time we got to East London the smog kicked in and remained till we reached our Cousins in Putney. A yellow type of dense fog for those too young to remember it.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



There was often a yellow thick haze at Dartford just before the tunnel in those days sort of 30 degrees up from the horizon.
 
doctormog
02 February 2024 22:10:38
The 18z GFS continues the theme of the colder weather from the north from midweek with a snow risk across a swathe of the UK. On the mild side for many over the next few days before the cooler conditions move in. There coukd be some interesting weather in the latter half of next week.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_126_1.png  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+2
tallyho_83
03 February 2024 00:50:03
Unlike the 06z The 18z Op goes from coldest run to mildest and same for Control run! but still plenty of cold ENS- awaiting for more flip flops!

End of next week looks interesting although mindful that the LP keeps tracking further south and the anxiety is that it will track too far south and miss the Uk altogether like that cold snap in January Month!! But for now it looks like a rain to snow event on 9th for many southern parts..

UserPostedImage

 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Tim A
03 February 2024 06:12:26
GFS has snow as far south as the North Midlands Thursday into Friday. Thing is UKMO is having none of it and I would say is likely correct with the system being much further North and positive uppers into southern Scotland. 
Met Office automated based on Mogreps has 6c and 8c Thursday and Friday here, it would have to be spectacularly wrong , in fact never seen it that wrong at that range.  Conclusion : silly GFS op especially when you look at most of its ensembles. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
White Meadows
03 February 2024 06:47:37
Some interesting weather in store if you like stormy conditions. 
Otherwise pretty uninspiring for coldies generally and the wait for a proper widespread cold outbreak continues… will we enter the second half of Feb with thirst still unquenched?
 
ballamar
03 February 2024 07:06:44
Probably more realistic for the end of next week coming into focus, whic always looked like a bonus! Still looking from mid month as the real chance of cold but as GFS shows to get real cold will need some luck. Cold and wet probably most likely next week
doctormog
03 February 2024 07:30:26
Yes, still looking chilly and unsettled from midweek on this mornings output. Where and when any wintriness will be is a different matter. 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
idj20
03 February 2024 07:41:08
Whether it’ll be wet or wintry, it’s looking extremely disappointing for those hoping for an early warm up. 😁 I just want to be able to wear shorts and turn heating off as soon as possible. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 February 2024 07:51:07
WX temp charts much as yesterday showing some movement. From the familiar pattern in week 1 (All Europe except Scandinavia above norm, freezing weather north of a line from the Baltic to the S Urals) there is a breakout with freezing weather spreading SW-wards to affect Germany and the Alps. Week 2 for Britain and France is also much colder this colder with freezing weather across much of Britain while there is a compensating bulge in milder weather to the N of Ukraine. Pptn (some of which will be snow) in week 1 for Britain, France and across to the Baltic States; in week 2 this splits into three, but different areas from yesterday, Biscay/Spain plus Baltic States and Adriatic. Britain excluding Ireland mostly dry.

GFS Op - Still W-ly zonal for a couple of days but collapsing a day earlier with shallow Lp working down into Scotland Tue 6th, followed by the earlier-predicted Lp from the SW linking with existing Lp in Norwegian Sea and by Fri 9th centred 980mb SW Approaches with E/NE winds for Britain. It fails to bring in any really cold air, moving quickly down to Italy, and pressure rises in the form of a ridge from Norway to Biscay, persisting close to or just to the east of Britain, winds mostly S-ly, until Sat 17th. A new Lp in mid-Atlantic Mon 19th switches the wind direction to a cooler SE-ly.

ECM - starts and finishes like GFS but treats the LP Fri 9th differently; on that date 970mb SW Scotland drifting first S to Wales then NE to Norway Sun 11th with a brief cold shot just for that weekend.

GEFS - In the S dipping to cold for a day or so either side of Sun 11th with good ens agreement than back to norm with the usual scramble. Rain (snow later in  a few ens members) 7th - 11th, bits and pieces after that. In Scotland, the colder weather appears earlier, on the 7th but also back to norm by Tue 13th with rain in shorter bursts  Sun 4th, Tue 6th and Fri 9th, chances of snow quite high for the 9th and very high in the NE. N England a blend of the above, the NW closer to S England and the NE closer to Scotland.

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
doctormog
03 February 2024 08:17:34

Whether it’ll be wet or wintry, it’s looking extremely disappointing for those hoping for an early warm up. 😁 I just want to be able to wear shorts and turn heating off as soon as possible. 

Originally Posted by: idj20 



Here you go Ian, although some may dismiss this as FI for some reason: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/CFSOPEU12_3360_1.png  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+3
Quantum
03 February 2024 08:18:43
LP development comes into range of short term models today; should be very interesting. Many runs still going for some overdevelopment which is not good for snow chances, if the LP can hold off on its intensification a few hours longer there is amber warning level potential here.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Downpour
03 February 2024 09:25:18

Here you go Ian, although some may dismiss this as FI for some reason: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/CFSOPEU12_3360_1.png  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



🤣happy to admit I fell for that one 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
03 February 2024 09:45:53
Underwhelming output this morning it has to be said. GFS dumps a load of snow Midlands again but it's very isolated.  I'm actually surprised how many mild ensembles there are for mid February.  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
ballamar
03 February 2024 11:31:30
Scandi high NE turning E on the op run - very plausible. Last third of Feb could be coldest period of winter for some
CField
03 February 2024 12:09:33
Best snow chance of the winter for many coming up the next two weeks.but it isn't straightforward by any means and a mainly dry scenario could suffice in-between wetter milder interludes.A lot of luck is needed aa others have commented.Before then  it is looking dire ...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
The Dub Version
03 February 2024 12:48:31
Desperately poor again, after the short term wet snow event in far north,  wet for most its, average again for most with a Coldish high sat over us as the most likely...
Berkshire
doctormog
03 February 2024 13:09:17
I’ve just had a look at the extended 00z ECM ensembles and they show the generally colder February outlook (mentioned in the forecasts) very well. Nothing extreme but a decent chance of wintry weather in places.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gandalf The White
03 February 2024 13:26:29

Desperately poor again, after the short term wet snow event in far north,  wet for most its, average again for most with a Coldish high sat over us as the most likely...

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



The 06z GFS has quite a strong signal for colder conditions by this time next week. 50/50 chance of 850 hPa temperature below -4c anywhere north of a line from Norfolk/Suffolk across to the Bristol Channel, and 25% chance of -6c to -7c.

A very strong signal (>75%) for LP to migrate west to east across the southern third of the country from Thursday into Saturday.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
ballamar
03 February 2024 13:32:26

The 06z GFS has quite a strong signal for colder conditions by this time next week. 50/50 chance of 850 hPa temperature below -4c anywhere north of a line from Norfolk/Suffolk across to the Bristol Channel, and 25% chance of -6c to -7c.

A very strong signal (>75%) for LP to migrate west to east across the southern third of the country from Thursday into Saturday.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



until that lows behaviour is nailed the rest is pure fiction!  Think zonal is probably least likely but as ever don’t be surprised by anything.
+1
Gandalf The White
03 February 2024 14:01:29

until that lows behaviour is nailed the rest is pure fiction!  Think zonal is probably least likely but as ever don’t be surprised by anything.

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



This suggests quite strongly that zonal is a low probability outcome.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1&dmode=1 

That’s one of the more dramatic pressure charts I’ve seen for a while.  The signal is less strong when you look at the far north of England and Scotland but it’s still there.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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