Sorry it's late again, all. 

Okay, So May has again been another massively warmer-than-average month, almost effortlessly producing one of the warmest Mays on record without any seemingly long hot spells. We all went too low for the second time this year, and by what could be a .5c margin. Can anyone confirm that there have been occasions in the past where every prediction was so off the mark?

As we turn our attention to June, the first month of summer, we can't help but wonder what it will bring in terms of temperature trends. Will it follow the pattern of May, or will we see a shift in the weather? Models are not giving a clear indication of any spectacularly warm at present, short-term High-pressure out to the west (so cold side) for the first few days, then drift down to pressure circa 1012-1018 through to mid-month. From memory, June last year started in a similar way with a high to the west and sunshine but windy and quite cold especially out of the sun, then it repositioned or was replaced and very warm weather though less settled took us through the rest of the month from about the 9th

For June 2024 I am going to go with a guess of 15.6c but I am not particularly confident 

June Historical data 

All-time CET Average 14.34c
1991 - 2020 Average  14.64c
June statistically is the month with the smallest difference between the long-term CET and the most recent Data Set being 1991- 2020 at just 0.3c

All-time warmest
1846    18.20
1676    18.00
1826    17.30
1822    17.10
2023    17.00

All-time Coldest 
1675    11.50
1909    11.80
1919    11.80
1972    11.80
1749    11.90

1991 - 2020 Warmest
2018    16.10
2017    16.00
2003    15.90
2005    15.80
2006    15.80

1991 - 2020 Coldest
1991    11.90
2012    13.50
2013    13.60
2011    13.70
1999    13.80

Good luck and as always can i please have predictions by Midnight tonight please 
 

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Thanks Justin. PM'ing mine now.
 

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Hello Justin. Hi - just stickied it for you. 

:-) 

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Hi Justin. Hi - I'll go for
15.5C. I hope I'm closer to the mark for June. I went for miles too low for May.
 

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15.2c for me please. Laptop is playing up.

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15.9 for me please.

IMANSF22            11.7c       Nicks'1BATH75      12.0c
Metcheck              11.8c        Anomaly       -2.35c
Netweather           12.82c      Anomaly       -1.29c
Peasedown St John 12.52c    Anomaly       -2.68c.

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Hadley

12.2 to the 1st 

1.9c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

The raw figures based on GFS models 16 and 35 days put the CET around 14.3C for this month. I've lost faith in the GFS temperature forecasts for reasons covered in other discussions. Namely they are not adjusting well to climate change and because SSTs are generally well above average near our shores.
So I'm tending to adjust upwards. Some month will catch us out though...
 

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IMANSF22                14.1c              Nicks'1BATH75       14.6c
Metcheck                  13.45c            Anomaly        -0.70c
Netweather               13.81c            Anomaly        -0.21c
Peasedown St John   14.78c            Anomaly        -0.42c. 

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Hadley

13.1 to the 2nd

1.0c below the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

I'm surprised not to see 1940 in there which was according to the Met the hottest June before last June (2023) eclipsed it as the hottest ever for the UK.

Obviously those are UK rather than CET but surprised there is that much disparity.

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June 1940 didn't make it into the top 10 CET Rob, and when you look at the historic synoptics, there was quite a bit of ridging to the north, especially week 2 and just after mid month. This would impact the UK data more as Scotland and NI would be more settled than norm with some warm airmasses at play.

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IMANSF22         14.3c         Nicks'1BATH75       12.4c
Metcheck          13.86c           Anomaly              -0.29c
Netweather       14.31c           Anomaly              0.22c
Peasedown St John  14.5c      Anomaly             -0.7c.         

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Hadley

13.5 to the 3rd

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average

IMANSF22             12.9c             NICKS'1BATH75     13.4c
Metcheck               13.39c           Anomaly        -0.76c
Netweather            14.23c           Anomaly        0.14c
Peasedown St John  13.63c         Anomaly        -1.57c.  

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Hadley

13.7 to the 4th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

Below average first half of June looks certain atm. 2nd half up for grabs still.
 

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IMANSF22           13.1c          Nicks'1BATH75        13.5c
Metcheck             13.14c        Anomaly        -1.11c
Netweather          13.71c        Anomaly        -0.39c
Peasedown St John 12.35c     Anomaly        -1.85c.

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Hadley

13.0 to the 5th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

I've taken more care to read the GFS current 850s this time (side-note to Darren-Retron!) and they are about 2°C. It's currently cloudy but we have had sunny spells. The airstream is mP but modified and softened by a ridge nosing in from the west. We've managed 20°C here (currently that). Still find this surprisingly warm.

The CET meanwhile is disappointing but since this is the first month I've gone well up on average for my guess, I guess there's no surprise!😄

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1675 up for grabs! 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶

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I can remember 1972. That was awful. I was having PE lessons outside on an athletics field at boarding school. We had to wear single layer PE shirts outside. It was awful and I can remember this clearly 52 years later.   😞 

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IMANSF22          13.1c              Nicks'1BATH75    13.0c
Metcheck            13.04c            Anomaly     -1.10c
Netweather         13.60c            Anomaly     -0.57c
Peasedown St John  13.06c       Anomaly     -2.14c.

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Similar again here today. 2C 850s and presently 18C outside in very strong sunshine, and no doubt it'll continue to warm as long as the sun stays out. I would normally add 16C to 850s this time of year in sunny conditions, but it seems 18 would be a better estimate these days.

EDIT: As of yesterday, the mean is 15.1C here - fractionally above the 91-20 average.

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