There are a couple of things which strike me here.
First of all, the fact that we're having such a poor summer would be perfectly understandable if there were a quick transition from El Nino to La Nina in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean because that is something which is thought to favour a poor summer as was the case in 2012.
However, the developing La Nina appears to have stalled, leaving us stuck on ENSO neutral for now and when that happens, or when there is only a very slow transition to La Nina from El Nino, that is thought to favour a decent summer overall as highlighted in Gavin P.'s excellent summer update videos not all that long ago.
In addition to that, we have a positive NAO at the moment which is backed up by a positive AO which at this of the year, would be expected to favour a decent summer as a result of a stronger Azores High building in towards the UK.
All in all, this shows that there are actually quite a few factors in place which would be expected to favour a decent summer and yet not one of those have been of any help to us whatsoever up until now which for me, is the most frustrating aspect of this summer up until now.
I guess this is probably the summer equivalent of what has happened in our most recent winters in which we have had two easterly QBO winters in the last three years, only for neither of those easterly QBOs to be of any help to us whatsoever in terms of us actually getting a cold winter out of any of that.
In winter, we would typically be looking at a major SSW event to shake things up whereas what is needed now at this time of year is for an ex-hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean to shake things up by taking a track to our west and north over the Atlantic in such a way that it then promotes the building of high pressure either over the UK or just to our east.
That to me, is probably our only route now to any decent summer weather. At the moment though, I can't see any signs of that happening any time soon.
Edited by user
09 July 2024 16:40:45
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Reason: Not specified
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.