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haghir22
17 July 2024 07:55:52
If I could find anywhere that would take my money, I'd gamble on the UK September temp record going this year.
YNWA
Matty H
17 July 2024 09:00:09

Another day, another rise in temperatures - very disappointing for me, of course, but the heat-hounds should be happy.

We now have 30s on both Friday and Saturday, with overnight 18s - it's going to feel awfully sticky as a result, and I wouldn't want to be on the roads on Sunday! (Even heat-hounds tend to moan about the heat overnight, I've found).

It's an amazing change in just three days: on Sunday the forecasts were for 23 on Friday and 22 on Saturday, so they've gone up 7 and 8 degrees respectively. It is, however, consistent with what I was expecting: 14C 850s at this time of year in sunny conditions should result in 30C, give or take a degree.

The MetO raw also has 31s in places like Hammersmith on Friday, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a 32 lurking somewhere nearby.
Still nothing in the red-tops. Surely they've got to catch on soon!

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/leys4.jpg 
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 


It’s been on the Sky News app for two days under the headline “mini heatwave on the way”
As for why the lack of interest from “heat hounds” whatever that is - it’s a couple of days before a return to crap. That’ll be why
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
17 July 2024 09:22:03
The AIFS the ECM AI model also hinting at some heat to end July. Hopefully not a mirage. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
ozone_aurora
17 July 2024 09:30:37

If I could find anywhere that would take my money, I'd gamble on the UK September temp record going this year.

Originally Posted by: haghir22 


I too would gamble that September will be very warm and sunny, at least away from NW UK. If i would to book an English holiday, it would definitely be for September, never for August or late July.

I'll put my money on for 33.5 C this September (August, i think, unlikely to be above 29 C, but instead will be some violent thunderstorms).
Rob K
17 July 2024 09:55:13

Also worth keeping an eye on late July and August.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I've had a feeling for a while that August could have some serious heat - maybe not long lasting but it's been bottled up for so long that it could be fierce. Even the brief waft at the end of this week looks like reaching 30C with ease, so a direct hit could be quite something.

I notice that even Sunday is now showing 25C in London on the UKV.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Jiries
17 July 2024 11:26:22

It’s been on the Sky News app for two days under the headline “mini heatwave on the way”
As for why the lack of interest from “heat hounds” whatever that is - it’s a couple of days before a return to crap. That’ll be why

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Perhaps the unexpected infill clouds today here and many southern posters complained about it on NW moan threads hence why lack of interest from us heat lovers and this warm spell might end up cloudy affairs so next please.  September is the one I am interested to see for full sunny days regardless the temperatures. 
Taylor1740
17 July 2024 11:43:49

It’s been on the Sky News app for two days under the headline “mini heatwave on the way”
As for why the lack of interest from “heat hounds” whatever that is - it’s a couple of days before a return to crap. That’ll be why

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Agreed - a bit like having a 2 day cold snap in Winter - pointless really and you are not going to get any enjoyment out of it knowing it's only lasting a day or 2.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
westv
17 July 2024 11:52:37
Heat hounds? LOL!!
At least it will be mild!
bledur
17 July 2024 12:59:23

Agreed - a bit like having a 2 day cold snap in Winter - pointless really and you are not going to get any enjoyment out of it knowing it's only lasting a day or 2.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


How do you not get any enjoyment out of it? Enjoy what you have rather than focus on the next Big Wednesday.😆
+5
Windy Willow
17 July 2024 13:26:58
Met showing 30c for Spalding on Friday and 28c Saturday, with the BBC going for a slightly lower temp Saturday along with a possible thundery breakdown.
I'll soon discover who's closer to the mark I guess 😁
South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
Roger Parsons
17 July 2024 13:48:17

Met showing 30c for Spalding on Friday and 28c Saturday, with the BBC going for a slightly lower temp Saturday along with a possible thundery breakdown.
I'll soon discover who's closer to the mark I guess 😁

Originally Posted by: Windy Willow 


You have made an old man very happy, WW! 🤣 I love a good thunderstorm that coincides with The Proms! We had an especially memorable one back in the early 70s in Cambridgeshire!!!!
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
+1
Retron
17 July 2024 14:50:20

Heat hounds? LOL!!

Originally Posted by: westv 


They're the summer equivalent of coldies like me - always sniffing out the next hot spell, even if there's one right under their nose they'll still be going after one in the distance. "Hotties" doesn't have the same ring to it (cue Beast), and as they're always searching, chasing... hound it is!
Leysdown, north Kent
+3
icecoldstevet
17 July 2024 15:04:04
Not had anything here this year above 21c and after this Friday for the next 10 days models/apps not showing anything above 18c, which is how we like it and why we moved to the North Cornish coast.  Daughter lives in Cambridge where temps are usually at least 5c above here in the summer.
Cornwall - 50 Metres Above Sea Level - 1 Mile From The Atlantic Coast
Retron
17 July 2024 15:15:48

Not had anything here this year above 21c and after this Friday for the next 10 days models/apps not showing anything above 18c, which is how we like it and why we moved to the North Cornish coast.  Daughter lives in Cambridge where temps are usually at least 5c above here in the summer.


Interesting to see how cool it is down there - I'm only half a mile away from a north-facing coast here, but it does bugger-all to keep things cooler these days!

Talking of which, the MetO raw now has 31C here on Friday, followed by a 19C minimum into Saturday. And Saturday... 29C now, instead of 30, but it'll be an incredibly sticky feel to things.

Funny thing is - an ice cream van came round yesterday evening, as a shower passed through. He got no customers. I suspect when one is really needed, i.e. Friday and Saturday, they'll be nowhere to be seen!

EDIT: Better late than never, the MetO have finally twigged it's going to get hot! They're using the term properly this time:

"Outlook for Friday to Sunday:
Settled weather with plenty of hazy sunshine over the coming days, staying dry aside from Saturday where there's a risk of showers, perhaps thundery. Warm or very warm, locally hot."
Leysdown, north Kent
Matty H
17 July 2024 17:51:32

How do you not get any enjoyment out of it? Enjoy what you have rather than focus on the next Big Wednesday.😆

Originally Posted by: bledur 


Ummm…… no
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 July 2024 18:08:11

Met showing 30c for Spalding on Friday and 28c Saturday, with the BBC going for a slightly lower temp Saturday along with a possible thundery breakdown.
I'll soon discover who's closer to the mark I guess 😁

Originally Posted by: Windy Willow 


"Three fine days and a thunderstorm" - George II, 1730. It's traditional😊
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
doctormog
17 July 2024 18:13:05

"Three fine days and a thunderstorm" - George II, 1730. It's traditional😊

Originally Posted by: DEW 


I am patiently awaiting these three fine days. Presumably they are supposed to be consecutive? I can take or leave the thunderstorm. 

The 12z output looks far from inspiring at first glance.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+3
Rob K
17 July 2024 18:17:07
12Z output definitely looks like a step back from anything settled next week. GFS op run is average to poor, and the control is atrocious.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Saint Snow
17 July 2024 19:32:05

12Z output definitely looks like a step back from anything settled next week. GFS op run is average to poor, and the control is atrocious.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



😢

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2024 07:11:02
WX temp charts do not relent and continue to show the cooling effect of the N Atlantic all the way across N Europe for the next fortnight, with some remarkably cool conditions in W Russia in week 2. For Britain, SE England just hanging on to a little warmth (boosted perhaps by the one-off hot day on Friday)  but N Scotland cool - though, to be fair, neither far from long-term average. Rain fairly well distributed over Europe throughout, more near the N Atlantic in week 1, focus transferring to the Alps week 2.

GFS Op - starts with a couple of troughs moving across Britain projected from LP near Iceland (this weekend, Thu 25th), then a short spell of settled weather around Tue 30th (1020mb covering Britain) before another Atlantic trough Fri 2nd. This last trough sits off NW Scotland and promises some warm and humid air brought up from the S to much of England.

ECM -similar to GFS, though the trough on the 25th  is a weaker affair.

GEM - similar to GFS but a different handle on the trough on the 25th - weaker as in GFS but persisting into the weekend.

GEFS - warm now (at least in the S), just on the cool side for the rest of month, then slowly warming. Very little rain in the S, more persistent and to some extent heavier towards the NW; many areas away from the SE showing a one-day peak Sun 21st.

The pop-up ad on the TWO chart viewer offering snow and ice removal tools this morning. An official TWO winter outlook?😮
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Saint Snow
18 July 2024 13:57:04
One thing that's been persistent all through this so-far dreadful summer is high pressure over the Barents and Kara Seas, the Novea Zemlya archipelago, and the far north of Russia.

It's blocking the normal progression of lows and stopping the summer PV from troughing south in that region (so it's instead troughing over NE Canada/Greenland)

Looking at a handful of previously good summers, high pressure in that area is mostly absent (with a dominance of the summer PV troughing there)


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+3
Jiries
18 July 2024 15:56:47

One thing that's been persistent all through this so-far dreadful summer is high pressure over the Barents and Kara Seas, the Novea Zemlya archipelago, and the far north of Russia.

It's blocking the normal progression of lows and stopping the summer PV from troughing south in that region (so it's instead troughing over NE Canada/Greenland)

Looking at a handful of previously good summers, high pressure in that area is mostly absent (with a dominance of the summer PV troughing there)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


We need to look for 2025 toand hope not a same thing happening which can tell us from the models.

No Iberian HP persisting over Spain and Portugal that gave them very dry warm to hot end of winter as done in 2023.
SSW must not occur again.
If both not happened then we safely get a warmer Spring to settled warm to hotter drier summer with short unsettled spells.
If both does occur again then we know a bad year again ahead for 3rd year running.
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
18 July 2024 19:07:46
Not bad 12s really certainly better than most of Summer so far. Azores HP having more of an influence.  AAM is above neutral now this is seemingly helping push the Azores HP our way more. It's quite fragile though so could go Pete Tong .
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2024 07:03:09

WX temps offering a little more warmth for N Europe in week 1, with SE England up to the N Baltic areas which particularly benefit from this; Scotland and W Russia still cool. Then a step back in week 2 with the isotherms slipping back south and any real warmth staying S of the Alps. Rain patchy across N Europe in week 1 (Spain still dry) but moving to N Scandinavia in week 2, Britain becoming dry.


GFS Op - trough moving E-wards across all of Britain at the weekend, then a slight rise of pressure before another  trough (weaker, and  S England less affected) moves across Fri 26th. HP then establishes firmly for Britain 1025mb Mon 29th and pressure remains quite high to Sun 4th, though somewhat dented by LP moving to Scandinavia Fri 2nd with a spell of NW-lies.


ECM - similar to GFS though the HP Mon 29th is centred further N and SE England may be affected by continental LP.


GEM - The trough shown on GFS for the 26th sticks over Scotland and then backs off to the NW with fresh SW-lies for Britain as a whole  and HP centred no closer than E France


GEFS -  temps dropping to cool side of norm Sun 21st - 28th, then less agreement between ens members with mean near norm. Rather dry in the SE, a few runs provide splashes of rain there; in a band from SW to NE the splashes of rain are more frequent and in the NW happening all the time. 

Sorry about the earlier formatting - thought I had that under control!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2024 07:13:21
I was feeling more optimistic this morning. Both the ECM and GFS offer more northern ridging of high pressure with even the chance of our own anticyclone sitting nicely over the UK! 
But the GFS average still shows heights reluctant to build east from the Azores which means there is a definite risk of a continuation of the July weather we've seen so far. All in all though, the models appear to be showing more opportunities for some warm, dry weather. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+3
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