theweatheroutlook

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cultman1
23 July 2024 13:27:30
So true and the forthcoming weekend looks like a rinse and repeat?
I fear August will continue in the same vein 
Tim A
23 July 2024 13:47:56
Whilst not perfect, seems to me that there is some decent summer weather coming up with temps above 20c and little rain. Certainly no high winds and 15c Max's for the foreseeable.  The last week has been warm and dry too with less than 0.5mm.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2024 14:40:09
I was just thinking that we usually get some interesting facts in the summer from TimS. Especially with updates from France and his vineyard during heatwaves! Looks like he has logged in today, but no posts since February.
Anybody heard from him?
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Jiries
23 July 2024 15:56:54

Agreed, Saint.

The common theme of the models ever since early June has been that whenever the models have indicated a period of HP domination as they have a few times, they have very quickly renaged on that and then shown HP building in less strongly and then collapsing ahead of the next LP from the atlantic. I think someone earlier in the thread compared it to the chase for cold last winter; it sure feels like that to me.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


All models had been very very poor and rubbish performance, they did not pick up this recent very warm spell as it came out of blue at short term, they were so insisting we suffer more with low temps, rain and winds.  Like I said before they are a lot worst nowdays, too many backtracks, wilful delays and nonsense extreme cold or hot stuff that never happened.
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 July 2024 07:01:40
WX temp charts increasingly on the warm side for N Europe; reasonably warm for all of England by week 2, N Scotland also milder, and unlike yesterday, warmth further E around the Baltic levelling off instead of cooling.  A dry-ish area through the Channel into the N Sea for both weeks; in week 1 small amounts of rain here and there across Europe, week 2 more concentrated in the N Atlantic with extra for NW-facing coasts.

GFS Op - trough crossing Britain from the Atlantic today/tomorrow as previously forecast, then a stronger rise of pressure so that the forecast trough on Wed 31st is less of a feature. Then the weather settles into a pattern of HP over France and areas of LP passing near NW Scotland until Fri 8th i.e. settled in the S, changeable in the N, with SW-lies predominating. LP closest to Scotland Fri 1st, Sun 3rd and Thu 7th with SW stronger then esp around the 1st.

ECM - similar to GFS though the trough on Wed 31st moves up from the S (warmer?) rather than in from the NW but still a weak feature.

GEM - close to GFS

GEFS - in the S, cooler with a little rain this week, then mostly dry with temps close to or a little above norm; a lot of variation in ens members later on. In the N and to some extent in the W, temps close to norm rather than above and some tendency for small amounts of rain in the first week of August
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Rob K
24 July 2024 07:50:50
Output not looking bad at all this morning, with largely settled weather (after the odd wobble later this week and into the weekend) and the chance of some rather warm conditions next week. Nothing 2022-esque, but nothing 2007-esque either.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
24 July 2024 10:25:24
GFS 6Z brings in some 30C heat early next week, followed by some thunderstorms.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Saint Snow
24 July 2024 12:39:57

Output not looking bad at all this morning, with largely settled weather (after the odd wobble later this week and into the weekend) and the chance of some rather warm conditions next week. Nothing 2022-esque, but nothing 2007-esque either.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Your first sentence needs a 'for some' caveat. 😉 The GFS 6z is unsettled (away from the SE)

I've got my eye on the weekend & week after next as I'm in Devon. 

I'm hoping we don't need the wetsuits... but fearing that we will. 

Could be worse, mind, as we opted against the NW of Scotland 😐


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
24 July 2024 17:56:35
12Z GFS continues the decent theme - a bit of an unsettled blip in the first week of August but plenty of HP for the south. I'd be happy with that.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Matty H
25 July 2024 07:12:18
Completely unapologetically selfishly, the operational outputs look quite decent for the south
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Tim A
25 July 2024 07:17:04
Much improved for many especially compared to the first half of the summer I would say. 
I am in London Sunday to Wednesday next week and it is looking especially glorious. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 July 2024 07:21:04
WX temp charts continue the theme of the advance of warm weather on a broad front across N Europe. By week 2 there's something quite hot in SE England -  but far NW Scotland continues cool. In the rainfall charts, most of Britain on the dry side for two weeks, again NW Scotland excepted; heaviest rain in week 1 is in the Baltic and in week 2 in N Norway and the Alps.

GFS Op - troughs still continue to cross Britain, today and another on its heels for Saturday, after which the weather settles down much as forecast yesterday with HP over the near continent and  LP towards Iceland with a general SW-ly flow, just a bit of a wobble on Sat 3rd as LP extends a bit further S

ECM - similar to GFS

GEM - .same general theme as GFS but the 'wobble' on Sat 3rd is shown as a drop in pressure over a larger area

GEFS - cool at first, warm at the start of August esp in S, then back to near norm or a little above in S, a little below in N. Rain for the SE most likely at start of August but not in every ens member, for the N & W starting then and persisting in most runs esp in far NW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
doctormog
25 July 2024 07:26:01
With a mainly SWly flow for the realistic time period the outlook (away from parts of the NW at times) is looking much better than it has done for much of the summer. Nothing extreme, just pleasantly warm and often dry or sunny.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
LeedsLad123
25 July 2024 18:07:14

Whilst not perfect, seems to me that there is some decent summer weather coming up with temps above 20c and little rain. Certainly no high winds and 15c Max's for the foreseeable.  The last week has been warm and dry too with less than 0.5mm.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


The weather has been very decent since the 16th, no rain except a light shower yesterday, plenty of sunny spells and temperatures in the low-mid 20s (plus one day in the high 20s). Forecast also looks good with temperatures here in Leeds between 21 and 24 degrees with sunny spells.

Can’t see why anyone would be unhappy with that tbh.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
+1
Saint Snow
25 July 2024 18:20:27
I think I'm looking at different models, because, after a nice weekend and first half of next week, it looks unsettled.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ozone_aurora
25 July 2024 18:25:18
GFS (NCEP) brings unsettled conditions by 5 Aug with potential for severe MCS type thunderstorms.
Ally Pally Snowman
26 July 2024 04:35:49
Sadly AAM is looking like it's going below zero again early August.  So the Azores HP unlikely to influence the UK. In fact it's probably back to square  1 again could be quite unsettled from early August.  GFS looks terrible from 144h this morning 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
26 July 2024 04:58:34

Sadly AAM is looking like it's going below zero again early August.  So the Azores HP unlikely to influence the UK. In fact it's probably back to square  1 again could be quite unsettled from early August.  GFS looks terrible from 144h this morning 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Do we need to obey those idiot teleconnections as they are all useless waste of time like the models as I remember those twat teleconnections was lying to us that we will get cold winter which ended up nothing happened. To much heat everywhere all the way to 31c in arctic circle so impossible for UK goes cold and unsettled again.  
Retron
26 July 2024 06:09:26

I think I'm looking at different models, because, after a nice weekend and first half of next week, it looks unsettled.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


As is often the case, the difference between GFS and MetO is noticeable, at least down here. The former has two warm days and the rest average, with the odd spot of rain later on. MetO, meanwhile, has higher temperatures, and dry throughout. The average down here this time of year is 23.

GFS highs for the next 7 days: 23,23,23,26,27,21,24
MetO highs: 25,24,24,27,27,25,25

Based on the performance so far this summer, with the GFS running a distant second to MetO, I would have to say the latter is more likely!
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
26 July 2024 06:18:44

Do we need to obey those idiot teleconnections as they are all useless waste of time like the models as I remember those twat teleconnections was lying to us that we will get cold winter which ended up nothing happened. To much heat everywhere all the way to 31c in arctic circle so impossible for UK goes cold and unsettled again.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Nothing is ever 100% but AAM is one of the better teleconnections . GFS might be over reacting this morning as GEM and UKMO are not as bad. But HP dominated early August seems unlikely this morning. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
26 July 2024 06:44:00
ECM is also much better than the GFS.  Where's your money?
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 July 2024 07:23:06
WX temps: quite warm in week 1 across N W Europe and up into the Baltic; then in week 2 a general drift S-wards of the warmer weather with N Scotland and Norway definitely cool. Heat ramping up again in the Aegean. Rain (different from yesterday) in week 1 in large patches over Iceland, Germany, Baltic States; in week 2 converting into a continuous band N Spain to the Channel to Scandinavia plus some in the Alps.

GFS Op - pressure rising over Britain for the next few days but not lasting; first a shallow LP drifting up from the south Wed 31st then soon after something much deeper, more vigorous and cooler from the NW eventually settling Clyde 995mb Mon 5th. HP revives from the Atlantic Thu 8th forming a ridge (but LP affecting the Channel at first) which topples across Britain by the weekend following.

ECM - has the same features as GFS but keeps the LP after Wed 31st further north near Iceland so mainly affecting N Scotland; S England is on the edge of continental LP so could be unsettled but should be warmer.

GEM - makes more of the shallow LP Wed 31st, then adopts a position between ECM & GFS with the following LP 985mb Hebrides on Sat 3rd. That LP unlike GFS does not move away but projects a trough S-wards to the W of Ireland Mon 5th.

GEFS - becoming warm esp in S around Thu 1st, then a brief dip before resuming near norm (or cooler in N) through to Sun 11th but with poor agreement between ens members. Some rain from 1st onwards, modest amounts, intermittent in S, more continual in N.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Jiries
26 July 2024 07:40:05

ECM is also much better than the GFS.  Where's your money?

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


ECM is correct there so much heat everywhere so no way UK get cold and unsettled until late Autumn season.   
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 July 2024 07:49:40

ECM is correct there so much heat everywhere so no way UK get cold and unsettled until late Autumn season.   

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


I don't think the Scots would agree with you, looking at ECM T+240 - and S England is only just about hanging on to the warm weather,
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
26 July 2024 08:03:28
Lots of outdoor events for me over the next few weekends. First ones are this Saturday evening and then Sunday afternoon. Both of those look safe (i.e. dry). Next Saturday is a family birthday bbq in south London. That depends massively on which way the models pan out. The GFS Ops is very poor but the Ens charts less scary.  
I'm hoping that ECM is the accurate one but even that brings more unsettled weather next weekend. At least it gives many of us close to a week of mostly dry, warm weather which I think we deserve. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+1

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