Let hope it a trend and that chart show a daily rising temperatures and not a quickie type as I haven't got a heatwave here so far this year so over due for one.   Last 3 warm spells was bog standard and not very sunny one.  As still early August and ground already properly dried up will help to lift higher temps and cloudless skies.  first warm spell was very cloudy due to severe moisture, 2nd one half way down and recent one nearly sunny.

6Z GFS has a double burst of heat from the south. Neither of them lasts long but the second one around the 17th gives mid 30s. 

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And 12Z GFS (and GEM) go back to a washout for the middle of August. Summer hanging on by a thread based on current output.

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Mean 15th August is FI 11 days away thankfully so nothing to take seriously about this, we got warming up tomorrow and at the weekend before hand.

WX temps show cooler weather for week 2 over much of NW Europe. Although Britain stays much the same as at present (cool in N Scotland, comfortably warm in SE England) there is quite a dip in temp for N Spain, France, Germany and Sweden, taking these areas from warm/hot back to norm. For really hot weather look east to Romania and Ukraine. Rain in week 1 patchy from N Scotland to Norway to W Russia; in week 2 the western part of this band bulges southwards and intensifies over Britain, the N Sea and N France.

GFS Op - for this week LP over or close to N Scotland while HP just about hangs on along the S Coast. On Sun 11th a general drop in pressure with LP working N from Biscay to reach SE England 1005mb Mon 12th. The Atlantic then resumes with new LP steadily moving from the W to reach Clyde 985mb Thu 15th, this time extensive enough to affect all of Britain. No respite as another LP swings into place, Rockall 995mb Tue 20th, this having remnants of Debby incorporated.

ECM - same as GFS for this week, but after Sun 11th, the LP approaches from the Atlantic, not Biscay, but nevertheless takes a southerly  course Wight 990mb Wed 14th as the deepest  part of a large area of LP covering the NE Atlantic. This moves away to the north but remnants of Debby are then approaching as a shallow LP in mid-Atlantic. 

GEM - general agreement with the above for this week, though the LP is closer to Scotland at first and further away later. Then the development is like GFS, the LP from Biscay more transient and soon replaced by a much deeper LP N Ireland 960mb Tue 13th, crossing Scotland and filling as it goes. No sign of Debby.

GEFS - In the S, after a dip in temp Thu 8th, warmer around Wed 14th (remarkably wide disparity in ens members on the S Coast itself where the Op run is 10C above  norm and the control 4C below! but much less disparity elsewhere) This settles down to  better agreement from Thu 15th onwards, running a little below norm. Rain small amounts from Sun 11th onwards, with some runs showing big spikes at that time. In the N, a flatter temp profile nearly always a little below norm, rain at any time but a heavier spell around Wed 14th.

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Another stinker from the GFS with low pressure anchored to the UK for a solid week from the 14th, washing out peak holiday season.

P23 is fun though - takes the 20C isotherm all the way up to Shetland!

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Daily Express forecasting "a 34c Iberian heat dome arriving at the UK in days." Should probably be taken with a large pinch of sodium chloride though.

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is this nailed on?

WX temps - a cooling down from week 1 into week 2 for NW Europe, particularly France and Germany moving from rather warm to no more than norm, and NW Britain also cooling from the Atlantic. A little warmer in E Europe generally, hot in the Danube Basin and E Mediterranean. Rain in week 1 in patches in a band from NW Britain to Scandinavia to W Russia, as before, but although in week 2 Britain is generally wetter than in week 1 this is not as dramatic as yesterday with the heaviest rain for the Faeroes and Norway.

GFS Op - Until Sun 11th, LP near N Scotland and HP near S England maintains a W-ly flow (FAX shows fronts moving through from time to time). Then a shallow LP moves N from Biscay to E Scotland before being displaced by deeper Atlantic LP arriving and covering Britain 990mb Wed 14th, hanging around esp towards Scotland until Sat 18th. Then it gets caught up in the N Atlantic W-lies and the situation reverts to much the same as the current week. A bubble of HP for England 1020mb Thu 22nd - could it last? No sign of Debby.

ECM - Similar to GFS for this week, but although a general drop in pressure at the weekend, no LP from Biscay, and the Atlantic LP (which incorporates remnants of Debby) following heads further north, 980mb Faeroes Thu 15th with SW-lies generally and HP reviving near the S Coast

GEM - like GFS, but keeps pressure higher for the S this week, the Biscay LP runs up the W coast rather than crossing Britain and the Atlantic LP is a day slower to arrive, and only 1000mb

GEFS - In the S, a brief dip before a warm peak around Mon 12th (though ens members differ on how warm this will be), back to norm Thu 15th and staying there or just below. Rain most likely around Wed 14th and continuing (the far south has a brief drier spell, rain resuming Sun 19th). In the N, the warm peak is suppressed but temp profile otherwise similar, rain heavier, starting a day or two earlier  ca 12th and mostly more continuous, plus a bonus one-day-only Fri 9th.

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One thing showing up is the potential for unseasonably windy conditions in the medium term.

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Which I've picked up on a couple of days ago. 😂 I said about an autumnal-looking trend for around the 11th in a number of models runs.

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I wish it was autumnal... but nope, dry, sunny and continuing warmer than average for the foreseeable future. Summer is very much still in charge! It'd be nice to get some rain...

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/leys8.jpg 

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Looking like a very short lived blink-and-you'd-miss-it plume event before things return to default mode. The useless third world apps tend to overcook maximums for my south-facing coastal location anyway.

Oh, now I'm starting to sound like Jiries. Mind you, it is 27 C in my famed west-facing hobby room right now. 

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Pouring with rain here at the moment!
Still looking like a chance of a brief burst of low to mid 30s on Monday but the rest of August is looking distinctly iffy. Certainly the middle of the month looks set be LP dominated, but there are signs that high pressure could nudge back in to the south later in the third week.

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ECM ensembles have upgraded the chances of heat with near unanimous agreement on high teens or low 20s 850s for London on Monday.

GEFS still has much more scatter with some members as low as 5C.

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which are you going to go for?
 Met Office is showing 27 degrees for London for Sunday

Most output this morning has 20c 850s for Monday , looks like a short heat spike but 30c Sunday and maybe 35c Monday possible. 

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Hi

Yes saw the charts posted yesterday on NW that 35C for London to 32C in Midlands on Monday, 29C here to 32C London Sunday.  Apps severely undercook for here and London only showing 27C and 30C Sunday and 24c to 27C Monday so that around 8C undercook record low.  My expectation is today around average temps for 2 days then Friday should rise to 24C, 27C saturday, 29C Sunday, 32C Monday and 25C Tuesday before returning to average temps.   850's just reach just before Birmingham line so around 18C uppers for here and 20C from Oxford southward.

Mid 30Cs not off the table on Monday.

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WX temps - the cool-down noted yesterday for NW Europe is present to a greater degree for week 2 in today's forecast. From slightly above norm in week 1, cooler conditions reach N France and S Germany down to the Alps with only Poland and W Russia unaffected. All of Britain distinctly cooler with the far southeast just hanging on to something marginally warm in week 2 after a definitely warm week 1. Iceland gets a 'freezing blue blob'.  Rain in week 1 in a band across N Europe, in week two concentrated over Britain and areas around the N Sea.

GFS Op - this week continues with LP near N Scotland and HP over France and W-lies generally. On Sun 11th LP from Biscay moves N, pushing a short-lived hot plume in front of it but is off to Shetland by Tue 13th as new LP swings in from the west, resuming the current pattern but pushing troughs further S to affect all of Britain e.g. on Sat 17th and Tue 20th. Then another LP runs N from Biscay and is sitting over the whole of Britain 990mb Fri 23rd.

ECM - similar to GFS though (1) new LP after the 13th not as deep and England less affected and (2) particularly trough on Sat 17th is displaced to the N Sea with cool but possibly drier NW-lies.

GEM - the Biscay LP less prominent on Sun 11th and the heat wave even shorter; the new LP runs further S than in GFS,  985mb Clyde Thu 15th with strong and cool NW-lies for all turning N-ly  by Sat 17th

GEFS - for the S, pulse of heat now agreed by all ens members for Mon 12th (10C above norm) but within a day, or two at most, dropping back; this pulse decreases steadily as you move N, and  is only a small 2 or 3C bump in Scotland. All areas then are at a consistent slightly below norm for the rest of August. Rain for most areas heaviest around Tue 13th; in the SE dry until then and intermittent amounts of rain after; in the N & W a spike for Fri 9th, and more continuous after the 13th, especially heavy in the far NW.

Debby does not make a significant appearance in models for the NE Atlantic; NHC has it losing itself over Labrador

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Hmmm Just hints a few members  of a cut off low now that would really be interesting easily into the mid 30,s real blow touch heat
Not out of the question
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=11&ech=156&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0 

I’m really hoping for some decent weather for Sunday. We’ve planned an afternoon tea party for our daughter’s birthday, in the garden of her care home.  It’s looking better today that it looked a couple of days ago.

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Weird charts from very cold north west to hot south east so in reality it won’t happened at all would be higher in NW and more widespread hot temperatures. 

Look what that cut off does amazing uppers by most members also very rare I can’t remember this years ago looking at model charts
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=1&mode=0&sort=0 

Still a way off yet but I think the minimum temperatures overnight Sunday into Monday could be unsusually warm, looking at the output this morning.

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