theweatheroutlook

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Chunky Pea
03 July 2024 17:31:47

I don't know why the jet is further south than normal, but long may it continue. I said before that I'd love to see how much whinging would occur if we were to get a below-average summer - though I still expect it to end up above average (we can't be jammy all summer long, and the NH is warmer than it's ever been in recent decades).Bear in mind, too, that having an overall below-average (91-20) summer should happen every other year on average... when the last one was in 2015, 9 years ago. Those of us who aren't heat-hounds are well, well overdue a colder-than-average summer. And no, summer crops will be just fine, as they were in the much cooler 61-90 period. The stray barley I have in my garden is ripening up nicely!EDIT: It's interesting to see that southerly-tracking jet, of course. It persisted through most of the winter, too, but sod's law... we just couldn't get hold of any deep cold air to take advantage of it.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Don't know what is causing the southward but could be a response to the 'straightline jet' that has been running through north America over the last number of weeks. 

Even in this relatively cool summer so far though, never is it actually 'cool' in the felt sense of the word. 14c here at the with a good stiff breeze and it feels wonderful out. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
bledur
03 July 2024 19:16:33

I don't know why the jet is further south than normal, but long may it continue. I said before that I'd love to see how much whinging would occur if we were to get a below-average summer - though I still expect it to end up above average (we can't be jammy all summer long, and the NH is warmer than it's ever been in recent decades).Bear in mind, too, that having an overall below-average (91-20) summer should happen every other year on average... when the last one was in 2015, 9 years ago. Those of us who aren't heat-hounds are well, well overdue a colder-than-average summer. And no, summer crops will be just fine, as they were in the much cooler 61-90 period. The stray barley I have in my garden is ripening up nicely!EDIT: It's interesting to see that southerly-tracking jet, of course. It persisted through most of the winter, too, but sod's law... we just couldn't get hold of any deep cold air to take advantage of it.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes , nice to have some average or below average temps for a change. Actually pleasant to work through the day without being blinded by sweat and knackered by the evening. You are correct about Barley growing well in cooler conditions and some of the finest Malting barley comes from Eastern Scotland where temps are cooler. I think maybe " Bertwhistle" was referring to other crops although i dont know which as everything is ripening round here.
+2
Spring Sun Winter Dread
03 July 2024 19:25:56
A cold autumn is something I'd like to see again .
Can just about remember autumn 1993, we haven't had a truly cool one since and statistically it is the season which seems to forever be warming with all 3 months seeing a very drastic shift in what is considered normal even in my few decades on this planet .
Cool summers are a bit of a disappointment always , especially as nowadays they almost always come with a side order of dull and wet , so would prefer the cool patterns to hold off a bit for July and August ideally.
We did have a run of cool summers between 2007 and 2012 (2009/10 being more warm /normal ) 
cultman1
03 July 2024 19:36:33
Having taken a look at the Met office App update it seems we are in for a lengthy cool spell here in the SE London area let alone the rest of the country The long range Met Office App has updated to advise that  this current spell of below average temperatures and incessant cloudy conditions will continue until at least the end of the month. Absolutely no sign currently of any proper improvement. Very disheartening.
Taylor1740
03 July 2024 21:17:25
Ensembles are showing absolutely no sign of anything especially warm right out to the 20th of July. Could be quite an unusual summer this.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
White Meadows
03 July 2024 21:26:08
Conditions for farming have been dreadful this year so far, with some reductions in crops as bad as -20% compared to 2023.
Starting off waterlogged from March to early June, then cool, then cold, a short warm blip and now cool again. Not to mention the dullest spring in decades hampering already dire chances of crop germination. 
Heat haters might have to pay more for their bread, veg & cereal like the rest of us. 
DEW
  • DEW
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04 July 2024 07:11:30

Conditions for farming have been dreadful this year so far, with some reductions in crops as bad as -20% compared to 2023.Starting off waterlogged from March to early June, then cool, then cold, a short warm blip and now cool again. Not to mention the dullest spring in decades hampering already dire chances of crop germination. Heat haters might have to pay more for their bread, veg & cereal like the rest of us. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Not all bad news - especially if you like potatoes 

https://www.vinehousefarm.co.uk/newsletter-193-june 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
DEW
  • DEW
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04 July 2024 07:40:54
WX temps an improvement on yesterday. Week 1 still cool for most of Britain and across to Norway, but closer to normal across NW Europe. Then the isotherms for week 2 start moving north and it's comfortably warm though not hot from England through Denmark to Finland - still cool for Scotland and Norwegian coast. Rainfall pattern has changed too, in week 1 on the NW edge of Europe (Britain, Germany, Scandinavia) and in week 2 further east (unlike yesterday; now Germany across to W Russia).

GFS Op - current LP moving to Norway and filling but leaving light N-lies until Mon 8th. New LP developing off to the SW Wed 10th and bringing in warmer air. The LP moves up the Channel 1010mb Fri 12th and to the northern N Sea 1000mb Mon 15th while HP follows up from the SW and lies over N France Sat 20th with light W-lies for Britain.

ECM - some resemblance to GFS but pressure higher over Britain Wed 10th before LP moves in, and that LP is weaker when it does arrive. But the sequence ends with a trough from the NW Sun 14th.

GEM - like GFS but throws in a shallow extra LP over England Wed 10th

GEFS - cool to start with (pulse of warmth in the S on Sun 7th), then close to norm from Wed 10th (in the S marginally warmer at first and then again later from Wed 17th). Small amounts of rain, mostly around Sat 6th and Sat 13th in S, 7th and 10th in NE, less agreement in NW but several runs albeit a minority, predicting a few days with heavier falls 10th - 13th. 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
DEW
  • DEW
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04 July 2024 07:47:56
Sorry about all the formatting rubbish - Brian, if you see this, please edit
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Caz
  • Caz
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04 July 2024 08:13:38
Talking of crops, the growing season got off to a late start due to waterlogged fields but seems to be on track again now.  The recent cooler weather with some warmer dry days have suited local crops. It stayed dry at the right time for hay to be cut and we now have lush potato and carrot fields.  Corn fields are golden and will be harvested in July as usual, providing we don’t get too much rain in the next week or too. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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David M Porter
04 July 2024 08:35:30

Ensembles are showing absolutely no sign of anything especially warm right out to the 20th of July. Could be quite an unusual summer this.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


Certainly very unsual in the context of the majority of summers in the last 20 years or so. Even most summers in recent times which were unsettled for the most part were not especially cool for much of the time, save for the likes of 2015 which was below average for overall temperature.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Rob K
04 July 2024 10:19:30

Ensembles are showing absolutely no sign of anything especially warm right out to the 20th of July. Could be quite an unusual summer this.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


Well for the south they look OK. The GEFS ensemble mean 850mb temperature is above average from the 9th right out to the end of the run apart from about 6 hours on the 18th. Not much sign of a heatwave but 10C at 850mb is very usable. A notable dropoff in ppn spikes towards the end of the run too.

I still have a gut feeling that the second half of July is going to turn out rather warm or even hot. There's an awful lot of heat building up down there.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+3
Rob K
04 July 2024 10:23:19
Wouldn't take much of a tweak to get some decent warmth out of this chart a week out. As it is that's got 25C in the SE.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2024070406/gfs-0-168.png?6 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
sunny coast
04 July 2024 16:00:26

Ensembles are showing absolutely no sign of anything especially warm right out to the 20th of July. Could be quite an unusual summer this.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


Unusual fir nowadays but summers in past decades like the 60s and early 70s were frequently cool but not necessarily wet 
ozone_aurora
04 July 2024 17:18:16
At the time of posting, the GFS looks potentially warm and thundery, at least in the S, between 9 - 12 July.
White Meadows
05 July 2024 04:33:15

Talking of crops, the growing season got off to a late start due to waterlogged fields but seems to be on track again now.  The recent cooler weather with some warmer dry days have suited local crops. It stayed dry at the right time for hay to be cut and we now have lush potato and carrot fields.  Corn fields are golden and will be harvested in July as usual, providing we don’t get too much rain in the next week or too. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Looks like you spoke too soon. Lashing down here and cold this morning like a typical November morning. 
+1
DEW
  • DEW
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05 July 2024 06:19:05

Looks like you spoke too soon. Lashing down here and cold this morning like a typical November morning. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Sunshine and showers forecast for next week - that sounds like good growing weather. One day of rain doesn't make a disaster, and here, given that there's been no measurable rain for a fortnight, perhaps quite useful.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 July 2024 07:11:15
WX temp charts for week 1 show modest warmth the other side of the Channel and up to the S Baltic, but by no means summer heat, indeed a little below norm; cooler still for Britain and W Scandinavia. Not a great deal of change in week 2; some northward movement of the modest warmth but NW Europe as a whole stays below norm and the really hot weather is a long way off in Ukraine. Rain in week 1 mostly in a band from the Channel up to the N Baltic, shifting S-wards in week 2 to lie from Alps to Denmark, still hanging back to affect SE England and NE Scotland.

GFS Op - LP currently near NE Scotland moving to N Norway by Mon but leaving a legacy of light N-ly winds. New LP developing to SW and moving to SE England 1015mb Wed 10th. Then a tendency for a (rather tenuous) ridge of HP to set up SW=NE across N Britain. That's a a 'glass half full' view - pessimists will pint out that LP is never far away over the low countries and that that there is another trough affecting mostly Scotland Tue 16th.

ECM - similar to GFS until Sun 14th when the ridge of HP is further S; less emphasis on LP in the low countries but LP 990 mb over the Faeroes Mon 15th corresponding to the weaker trough in GFS on 16th.

GEM - somewhere between GFS and ECM

GEFS - cool to Wed 10th, then near or just below norm for a week or so when some slight warming, all with good ens agreement, Rain most likely now, around 10th and less certainly the 13th (but more continual in NI and in NW Scotland) - significant but not enormous amounts.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
05 July 2024 07:36:51

Looks like you spoke too soon. Lashing down here and cold this morning like a typical November morning. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Calm and sunny here today.  Corn won’t be harvested for a few days yet and it can sit for a while, so no disaster yet. A few dry days later in the month is what we want. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
05 July 2024 08:00:28
Some serious heat looks set to build in central and south east Europe (Balkans, Hungary, Austria, Southern Germany, Rumania etc.) next week. Not much chance of that warmth coming our way . Some tentative signs of warming up mid July but the GEFS pattern from July 15 matches what the pattern looked like from July 9 about a week ago and you can see how that has changed on the ensemble chart.
So I'm far from convinced. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Rob K
05 July 2024 13:35:11

Some serious heat looks set to build in central and south east Europe (Balkans, Hungary, Austria, Southern Germany, Rumania etc.) next week. Not much chance of that warmth coming our way . Some tentative signs of warming up mid July but the GEFS pattern from July 15 matches what the pattern looked like from July 9 about a week ago and you can see how that has changed on the ensemble chart.
So I'm far from convinced. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 


I still feel like this will be a "back-loaded" summer, with some serious heat to come in late July or August, as soon as pressure is allowed to drop to our north.
eg look at P7 on the 6Z GEFS. GEM could also go that way.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Bertwhistle
05 July 2024 18:24:41

Yes , nice to have some average or below average temps for a change. Actually pleasant to work through the day without being blinded by sweat and knackered by the evening. You are correct about Barley growing well in cooler conditions and some of the finest Malting barley comes from Eastern Scotland where temps are cooler. I think maybe " Bertwhistle" was referring to other crops although i dont know which as everything is ripening round here.

Originally Posted by: bledur 


Peppers, tomatoes, courgettes, corn and aubergines; any summer flowering fruits that need insects in abundance at this time. 
I don't think they need heatwaves, but strong winds, cold HPs and cloudy days reducing the light might make a difference.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
+2
White Meadows
06 July 2024 06:08:16

Peppers, tomatoes, courgettes, corn and aubergines; any summer flowering fruits that need insects in abundance at this time. 
I don't think they need heatwaves, but strong winds, cold HPs and cloudy days reducing the light might make a difference.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Blowing a hooly out there this morning. I’d be surprised if my flower bed dwelling tomatoes are still in one piece by last lunchtime. 
+1
Crepuscular Ray
06 July 2024 06:49:27
Just looking at GFS, ECM, GEM this morning to name three and I feel hopeful that ridging from an Azores High from next weekend may bring better conditions, even to Scotland. Maybe a warmer sunnier last fortnight of July? 🤞🤞🤞🤞
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Tim A
06 July 2024 06:59:24
Yes I think it's looking a bit better than it has been.  >5c 850 temps on the whole moving forward after next few days, which generally means more respectable July temperatures. Hoping the high pressure moves in and it doesn't end up being too cloudy.  
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
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