theweatheroutlook

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Jiries
01 July 2024 15:34:01

A warmer more settled pattern does appear to be coming into view in about 8 days . Can we count it down?

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes we need to get this note down as we can’t afford to lose another poor month while daylight still healthy long enough.  Was wall to wall sunshine in Santa Claus village, arctic circle, Finland and 22C so how it managed to stay sunny and warmer than UK.
Bow Echo
01 July 2024 15:45:46

Yes we need to get this note down as we can’t afford to lose another poor month while daylight still healthy long enough.  Was wall to wall sunshine in Santa Claus village, arctic circle, Finland and 22C so how it managed to stay sunny and warmer than UK.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Erm.. not so looking at this live view. 18c and cloudy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4RRAEgpeU
 
Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants


Jiries
02 July 2024 02:14:19

Erm.. not so looking at this live view. 18c and cloudy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4RRAEgpeU 

Originally Posted by: Bow Echo 


Yes it was sunny and clear earlier on that you missed it and this live don’t have stroll back option to see past viewing so you entered on the spot.   Dreading back to nasty UK climate after a decent break from here.  Let see if this settled spell move to day 7 today.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2024 07:18:42
WX temp charts as yesterday; week 1 still cool for much of NW Europe including Britain; week 2 a general movement of warmth northwards resulting in hot weather lying a hundred miles or so inland from the coast, warm along the coast from S England to Baltic, staying cool further north for Scotland and Norway. Rain fairly general for both weeks except Spain and W Mediterranean; perhap s little drier near the N Sea in week 2.

GFS Op - HP near the SW retreating back to the Atlantic while LP passes by NE Scotland to finish up 995mb Norway Sun 7th, with increasingly cool NW then N-ly winds and looking unsettled in the N. LP off the W coast of Ireland 1000mb Tue 9th reverses the wind direction, so warmer, but drifts N-wards past N Scotland before HP settles over Britain Fri 12th. This only lasts for the weekend before LP 1010mb from France then a re-load of the LP off Ireland.

ECM - similar to GFS at first but LP W of Ireland persists and moves close to Kerry Fri 12th; no sign of HP at that date closer than Finland.

GEM - quite close to GFS

GEFS - mostly cool to Tue 9th, then near or just above norm despite WX suggesting better for the S. Generally modest amounts of rain at any time and a few ens members with heavier falls, no clear pattern. Drier in the S than the N
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Ally Pally Snowman
02 July 2024 10:14:57

A warmer more settled pattern does appear to be coming into view in about 8 days . Can we count it down?

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Well it didn't take long for the downgrades to appear. It's looking average at best now. Hard to see Summer turning around anytime soon. Getting HP to hang around the UK seemingly impossible atm. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
02 July 2024 12:54:11
At least 2m temps look like returning to Summerlike conditions.  Rather than the autumnal chill we have now.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2024 13:20:03
Repeated from my Media Thread post ....
[color=var(--bs-body-color)][font=system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"]The Met Office Contingency Planners 3 month forecast is out now for July to September. [/font][/color]
In recent years, September has felt like a summer month, at least for more southern parts.They are quite bullish that above average temperatures will prevail with rainfall and wind near average.  We shall see! 
Full details here;
[color=var(--bs-body-color)]https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_jas_v2.pdf[/color]
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+1
ozone_aurora
02 July 2024 22:00:10

Repeated from my Media Thread post ....[color=var(--bs-body-color)][font=system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"]The Met Office Contingency Planners 3 month forecast is out now for July to September. [/font][/color]In recent years, September has felt like a summer month, at least for more southern parts.They are quite bullish that above average temperatures will prevail with rainfall and wind near average.  We shall see! Full details here;[color=var(--bs-body-color)]https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_jas_v2.pdf[/color]

Originally Posted by: GezM 


I have a feeling the September will be the warmest, driest, sunniest month of 2024, at least over SE half of UK. Certainly if I planned to have a holiday in SE UK in 2024, say Suffolk, Kent or Hampshire, I would go in September, not July or August!

Certainly July looks like being a very unsettled month, but, as you've said we'll shall see.
White Meadows
03 July 2024 05:07:20
After the late June warm blip, the month officially recorded below average we now have July following suit at minus 2.6
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 
Ensembles increasingly show us heading similar to this time last month, just scraping 20c at best daytime maxes. 
As others have said September often delivers an Indian summer the last decade or so. Summer holidays approaching soon so you can place your bets on the monsoon arrival in about 2-3 weeks time. 
UncleAlbert
03 July 2024 07:37:52
There does not seem much chance of any decent summer weather in the foreseeable.  Ensemblies not giving much scope for above 1020mb and mean 850s no better than 7 to 8 C over  recent runs.  The problem  down here on the Bristol Channel coast is that though there is not much rain, the brighter days are accompanied by fresh winds locked in at north of west and the funneling effect offered by the regions geography ensure that a trip out usually requires a hoody.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2024 07:50:49
Warning: this forecast should not be read by anyone having a depressive nature 😟

WX charts this morning a definite step back for warmth lovers compared to yesterday. For week 1 nearly all of W Europe N of the Alps is a couple of degrees below the seasonal norm, and instead of warming up in week 2 as previously forecast, anything west of the Baltic gets cooler. Most of Britain and much of France below the 14C isotherm; for heat wave conditions go to Ukraine. Rain well distributed across N Europe in week 1, becoming concentrated over Britain - Denmark - Germany week 2.

GFS Op - LP sliding past NE Scotland on its way to Norway bringing in cold air form the NW which persists until Mon 8th. Then a modest improvement but only because trough of LP deepens and is 1005mb England Thu 11th, moving to Norway Mon 15th and followed by another cooler one 1005mb Scotland Wed 17th, also drifting E-wards with NW-ly behind it.

ECM - not significantly different from GFS

GEM - also similar to above, though a more southerly approach for the LP Mon 8th promises something a little warmer.

GFES - bar a brief up-and-down in the S, cool to Thu 11th and then staying a little below norm for the foreseeable, with good ens agreement. Rain most likely around Sun 7th and Wed 10th, but modest amounts at any time, chance of drier later.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2024 08:09:09
My hopes of any sustained heat this summer are steadily declining based on this morning's models. Feels like we are locked into a pattern with high pressure staying well out to the west. As Jiries said yesterday, perhaps we need a mid-Atlantic ex-hurricane to break the pattern?
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
johncs2016
03 July 2024 08:22:32

My hopes of any sustained heat this summer are steadily declining based on this morning's models. Feels like we are locked into a pattern with high pressure staying well out to the west. As Jiries said yesterday, perhaps we need a mid-Atlantic ex-hurricane to break the pattern?

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Yes, this looks very much  like the summer equivalent of that all too common scenario which we face just about every winter when we're looking for an SSW event to break a mild pattern which we are stuck in at that time.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Jiries
03 July 2024 08:30:13

My hopes of any sustained heat this summer are steadily declining based on this morning's models. Feels like we are locked into a pattern with high pressure staying well out to the west. As Jiries said yesterday, perhaps we need a mid-Atlantic ex-hurricane to break the pattern?

Originally Posted by: GezM 


I notice they are rudely happy to keep the temperatures downgraded to mid to high teens for first half of July the app was showing average 23C by this weekend to well below average 17-19C.    Honestly I gave up with this year anyway, any recovering is no point as daylight is declining now.  Was very sad to see how all countries including Finland arctic circle regions aving a good summer and only the UK is the coldest place in N Hemisphere.  
Ally Pally Snowman
03 July 2024 08:36:07
Some of the long rangers have HP building in strongly from about the 15th July.  That's the only straw I have.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
03 July 2024 09:07:56
We're reaching the stage where I'd like to see several below CET months occuring in quick succession.  I know it's not very scientific and is also a very crude metric, but it would increase my confidence in the possibility of a cold winter. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
David M Porter
03 July 2024 09:20:02

My hopes of any sustained heat this summer are steadily declining based on this morning's models. Feels like we are locked into a pattern with high pressure staying well out to the west. As Jiries said yesterday, perhaps we need a mid-Atlantic ex-hurricane to break the pattern?

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Yeah, I have seen those ex-hurricanes doing us a favour in the past. That said, I think that is something of a double-edged sword as they can work against us as well in terms of getting warm and settled weather.

It seems that May was our summer this year, at least in terms of how things have panned out thus far.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
03 July 2024 09:22:47
The AIFS model (AI ECM) has been picking up the HP building in signal for mid month for a while now. Obviously it's still a long way out but I rate this model so some hope maybe. 'In AI we trust', 'bow down to our robot overlords'.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=0&time=336&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
03 July 2024 09:35:33

We're reaching the stage where I'd like to see several below CET months occuring in quick succession.  I know it's not very scientific and is also a very crude metric, but it would increase my confidence in the possibility of a cold winter. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


2022 was a very hot summer followed here at least with the coldest snowiest December  for over a decade. More of that please. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
johncs2016
03 July 2024 10:05:33

We're reaching the stage where I'd like to see several below CET months occuring in quick succession.  I know it's not very scientific and is also a very crude metric, but it would increase my confidence in the possibility of a cold winter. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I would also like to be seeing a succession of below average months, possibly even with some cold temperature records to balance out those all too common high temperature records at least by a little bit.


In my books though, I would still much rather be seeing that in the winter (because that is what would give us a cold winter) rather than right now in the summer which should be our warmest time of the year (this is therefore the worst possible time for that to happen in my books).😡
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Jiries
03 July 2024 10:34:03

We're reaching the stage where I'd like to see several below CET months occuring in quick succession.  I know it's not very scientific and is also a very crude metric, but it would increase my confidence in the possibility of a cold winter. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


You should know very well it doens't work as today temperatures are expecting the same in winter months.  Thought you won't get suckered since that UK climate are complete idiot now, we get same temperatures all year around with only September the warmest month of the year.  It a lot warmer in the Arctic circle than here but they will get colder winters no problem but not here won't and will not happen.
+1
Rob K
03 July 2024 12:37:24
My optimism for mid month had been growing in recent days but the models seem to be backing off any sustained warmth once again. It's a long and frustrating process...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2024 13:36:15
My optimism for a dry weekend at Silverstone is running out. Son and daughter-in-law put their tent up there this morning in heavy rain. I’ve just had a message from them saying it’s leaking into their bedroom.  Oops!!  Lol
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Bertwhistle
03 July 2024 16:51:53
Sadly, sub CET months don't mean sub World temperature months.
On a different note, why is the 250mb jet dipping so persistently over NW Europe? Is this ENSO related or to do with the NAO, or sluggish NA drift/current? It's irritating. I know there are plenty who would welcome a break from persistent hot weather, but this is beyond a joke. The temperatures forecast could mean trouble for some summer crops if they persist.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Retron
03 July 2024 16:56:55

Sadly, sub CET months don't mean sub World temperature months.On a different note, why is the 250mb jet dipping so persistently over NW Europe? Is this ENSO related or to do with the NAO, or sluggish NA drift/current? It's irritating. I know there are plenty who would welcome a break from persistent hot weather, but this is beyond a joke. The temperatures forecast could mean trouble for some summer crops if they persist.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


I don't know why the jet is further south than normal, but long may it continue. I said before that I'd love to see how much whinging would occur if we were to get a below-average summer - though I still expect it to end up above average (we can't be jammy all summer long, and the NH is warmer than it's ever been in recent decades).

Bear in mind, too, that having an overall below-average (91-20) summer should happen every other year on average... when the last one was in 2015, 9 years ago. Those of us who aren't heat-hounds are well, well overdue a colder-than-average summer.

And no, summer crops will be just fine, as they were in the much cooler 61-90 period. The stray barley I have in my garden is ripening up nicely!

EDIT: It's interesting to see that southerly-tracking jet, of course. It persisted through most of the winter, too, but sod's law... we just couldn't get hold of any deep cold air to take advantage of it.
Leysdown, north Kent

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