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Gandalf The White
03 October 2024 06:36:56
I think this merits its own thread given the way the models have moved towards a rising threat of a major storm hitting the UK next week.
Kirk has deepened rapidly in the last 24 hours and is now a Cat 3 and predicted to make Cat 4. It’s forecast to head north next week and then head towards the southern UK as an ex-TS. It will have a huge amount of moisture in its circulation.
The UKMO model has it arriving on Wednesday, ECM later on Wednesday, GFS on Thursday.
The system looks to be capable of delivering 75-100mm of rain in the worst hit areas. Currently the greatest threat is shown as for Wales and southern areas up to the Midlands.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+4
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 October 2024 06:40:21
An ominous set of ensemble tracks here

https://x.com/Aigle_e/status/1841432620271280543 


The headline charts of all three main models (GFS, ECM, GEM) have converged on the track for Kirk, from Cornwall to S Norway, and central pressure around 970mb. Timing is however different with GFS favouring a 24-hour passage Thu/Fri 10th/11th, ECM similarly quick but a day earlier, GEM looking at 48 hours from Wed 9th to Fri 11th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
StoneCroze
03 October 2024 09:38:09
I'm hoping this will pass to my South, can do without a rerun of Oct. 87.  
Alderney, Channel Islands. (previously known as Beaufort)
idj20
03 October 2024 10:26:22
That's one weather event I wouldn't mind it being beamed up. 😑 When I was a teenager and into the 20s, I'd say "bring it on" for the excitement but now I'm in my mid-50s with my own house, it fills me with dread. Still hoping for downgrades or bypasses as far as my neck of the woods is concerned as I don't fancy a repeat of Oct '87 or even St Judes of Oct '13. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
+2
The Beast from the East
03 October 2024 10:28:44
latest GFS. Not as bad as it could be I suppose
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-180.png?6 
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The Beast from the East
03 October 2024 10:33:31
NHC discussion
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/030839.shtml 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
03 October 2024 10:45:09
GFS Control run so far
looks like its still a proper hurricane at this stage. we just have to hope it is so strong it swings north or bombs out to the south, but sadly i cant see anything that can alter its path. Very worrying. Wont be long before the press start the mass panic stories. Brian needs to get in there and give some quotes, get some hits for the website
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2024100306/gens-0-1-132.png 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gandalf The White
03 October 2024 10:54:58

NHC discussion
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/030839.shtml 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Only goes post-tropical on Tuesday and arrives here a day later:  that’s not encouraging 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


scillydave
03 October 2024 11:01:03

UserPostedImage
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Ooh that chart has me salivating! A proper blizzard - would be absolute carnage if that scenario played out. Not to mention extremely unusual given the time of year.
Would be one for the history books!
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Quantum
03 October 2024 14:37:14
This is getting unnervingly close as a fully blown TC. Could be record breaking in a few different ways.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
03 October 2024 14:42:17
P25 is bonkers
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2024100306/gens-25-1-150.png 
UserPostedImage
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
westv
03 October 2024 14:43:53
I'm abroad next week so won't see any of it.
At least it will be mild!
Quantum
03 October 2024 14:44:59
Hart phase space projections imply this thing still has tropical characturistics when it reaches the UK
https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/24100306/1.html 
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Saint Snow
03 October 2024 15:06:59
Looks interesting!


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 October 2024 16:06:01

P25 is bonkers
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2024100306/gens-25-1-150.png 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I'm organising an orienteering event on Sun 13th. I wonder if there'll be any forest left😟
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Saint Snow
03 October 2024 16:20:21

I'm organising an orienteering event on Sun 13th. I wonder if there'll be any forest left😟

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Don't erect any gazebos in advance of the event!

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Roger Parsons
03 October 2024 16:36:07

Don't erect any gazebos in advance of the event!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Think positive - one may blow in!
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 October 2024 16:42:51
P1 is a tame pussycat compared to p25!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=156&mode=0&code=1&ext=0 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Saint Snow
03 October 2024 17:53:19

Think positive - one may blow in!

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 



🤣

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
03 October 2024 18:06:19
Wind gusts for London.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
03 October 2024 18:19:23

Wind gusts for London.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Nothing remarkable there.

Quite disappointing, really.

Bring back pert 25! 😁

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
nsrobins
03 October 2024 18:44:26
Still too early to be confident on any particular outcome but its reasonable to state a feature with tropical-ish characteristics will affect the UK Thurs/Fri next week.
As I proposed a few days ago the SSTs in the NE Atlantic are 2-3deg above norm. The consequences of this are being played around with by the suites as they try to handle Kirk.
In 1987 it was the remnants of Hurricane Floyd that added the juice to form that historic event. I wonder if Kirk will be remembered for the same reasons?
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
idj20
03 October 2024 18:51:19
And yet virtually non existent on the 12z ECM op run, even UKMO is going off the idea. Still far away and only one run of many thus cannot be treated as a deterministic forecast but hope that is the start of a new trend.
Folkestone Harbour. 
Matty H
04 October 2024 07:32:46

And yet virtually non existent on the 12z ECM op run, even UKMO is going off the idea. Still far away and only one run of many thus cannot be treated as a deterministic forecast but hope that is the start of a new trend.

Originally Posted by: idj20 


Excellent 👍 
Yate, Nr Bristol
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