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Snowedin3
19 November 2024 00:21:46
Just fyi,
 If any of you have Tik Tok it’s like access to live webcams all over the north midlands atm 😅
Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
Matty H
19 November 2024 00:21:57
Radar looks like a rapid clearance east for the main band? Met Office warnings appear relatively accurate? Anyone here at lower levels seeing disruptive snow depths?
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
19 November 2024 06:13:53
We need to look closely at how Saturday pans out. This is far too uncertain at this stage, but we are talking serious amounts of snow if the cards fall right. This could be a dangerous event for some.


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
doctormog
19 November 2024 06:42:14
There looks like a weather front up north just now on the satellite imagery. It will be interesting to see what it delivers when or if it heads this way. 
https://www.sat24.com/de-de/continent/eu 

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 November 2024 06:47:11

We need to look closely at how Saturday pans out. This is far too uncertain at this stage, but we are talking serious amounts of snow if the cards fall right. This could be a dangerous event for some.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


BBC, Met Office and iPhone apps all have temps much too high for snow here on Saturday.  But low enough to keep this morning’s snow hanging around until then. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Essan
19 November 2024 07:30:10
Have to admit, I was NOT expecting an inch of snow on the ground in Evesham this morning!   Quite wet and already turning slushy in places, but nice to see.
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

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Snowedin3
19 November 2024 07:32:03
Hats off again to Arpege and Arome for signalling this secondary snowfall further south 
Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
johncs2016
19 November 2024 07:32:44

My oldest is reporting snow falling in the north of Nottingham. She is around 100m amsl. My middle one reporting rain in the south of the city at 50m

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


That's a similar scenario to the one which often crops up at this time of year in which you will be reporting snow in the south of Edinburgh, only for me to be reporting just rain here in NW Edinburgh.


You have just shown here that it's not just here in Edinburgh that this sort of thing happens.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Brian Gaze
19 November 2024 07:41:14

Hats off again to Arpege and Arome for signalling this secondary snowfall further south 

Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 


Yes they did extremely well again. 

There's a covering of snow here now. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Coxy410
19 November 2024 08:01:08
Any chance people putting Snow Reports can start a new thread, i’m here to look at any potential only.
Steve


Newborough, Cambridgeshire
Brian Gaze
19 November 2024 08:28:44
Please post snow reports in this thread:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24157-Snow-reports 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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nsrobins
19 November 2024 10:37:41
Interestingly latest obs show 2m and DP falling rapidly across the South and W Country with snow now reported in Bristol and Wiltshire.
There might be a little sting in the tail of this system yet as it exits ESE and what looks like a secondary wave forming behind it.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
haghir22
19 November 2024 10:45:41
I was going to ask about this, it's quite clearly showing on the radar and looks like it will hold together. Perhaps this incredibly wet and cold day may yet have something for us South of London?
YNWA
Saint Snow
19 November 2024 17:09:56
Most of the hi-res models have show showers piling into the NW of England from tomorrow evening, and into the Cheshire Gap. Here's hoping!

The system on Saturday is showing as bringing a period of very heavy snow for the more northern Pennines and Lake District. 

Hopefully the system will clear through by Sunday

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Aneurin Bevan
Boardshark
19 November 2024 17:31:55
I saw that and thought with the cold there is a chance of them penetrating further inland down to the MIdlands.
449ft Sutton Coldfield, West MIdlands
Jiries
20 November 2024 02:41:57

I saw that and thought with the cold there is a chance of them penetrating further inland down to the MIdlands.

Originally Posted by: Boardshark 


I get lot of information and updates from Midlands thread in NW and likely a better snow chance here from Cheshire gap overnight Thursday to Friday am which gave average 8cm snow depth from previous gap and wash showers streamers.  Cheshire gap showers are far much better than crap light blue radar that was the most of the time here.  This time more settled with frozen ground.
nsrobins
20 November 2024 06:50:47
UKV, Aperge, GFS HD still flirting with snow showers across the SW early Thurs am. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 November 2024 07:10:31
For inland snow shower potential we need to look at these factors:
1) Convergence. If we have low level convergence then showers will penetrate well inland. Orographic features and wind direction matters here. Note that the wind follows the isobars out at sea and bends towards LP inland. You can use this rule of thumb to work out roughly where convergence where happen. If the wind bashes into itself it is forced to rise.
2) Shear. You want directional shear to be low. Look at upper level e.g. 500hpa or 700hpa charts and compare to MSLP. If the contours are roughly aligned then showers will penetrate further inland.
3) Wind speed. Roughly speaking more wind = more penetration. Make sure you take sea breezes into account. At this time of year the land is colder than the sea so air blows out towards the sea, especially at night. What this tends to do is reduce penetration a night but also increase intensity towards the coast. 
4) Land friction. Similar to above, but note that wind being forced over mountains slows it down and causes intensity of showers to grow at the expense of penetration. Curiously for some inland areas you actually want a smaller instability/CAPE such that the moisture survives longer inland before it starts to snow out. If instability is very high (look to see if its already heavily snowing out to see) then intensity will be very high at the coast but penetration will be low. The ideal scenario for inland areas is *conditional instability*, i.e a thin layer of stability somewhere that is not immediately overcome but is gradually destroyed allowing greater penetration.

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Whiteout
20 November 2024 07:41:40

UKV, Aperge, GFS HD still flirting with snow showers across the SW early Thurs am. 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Already had some snow on the higher parts of the Moor Neil, I am thinking there could be a fair few cms end of play Thursday.

We were just below the snow line earlier today.
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Brian Gaze
20 November 2024 08:00:57

Looks good!

I'm curious, though, as to how it works behind the scenes. Does the model (or any model, for that matter) handle mixed precipitation types? We all know full well, for example, that if graupel's around it tends to be mainly in heavier bursts, and there's often bits of rain and sleet mixed in too. The chart as shown by AROME is thus most unlikely to happen, showing as it does a massive area of graupel, as there would be bound to be rain/sleet mixed in.

Similarly, xcweather does something with the GFS data to enable it to come up with sleet forecasts. I know we discussed the other day about GFS having a snow parameter, and how it gets flagged if it's just sleet, but xc is doing something to differentiate between snow, rain and sleet... almost as if there's a "snow amount" and a "rain amount", and if both are non-zero then it defaults to sleet.

I've not looked at raw GRIB data before, though, so don't know how precipitation is handled. For all I know it could just be an "x mm this period" number, then a "snow" or "graupel" flag on top....

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I think "sleet" would have to be inferred from GFS data because it doesn't exist as a variable. GFS / GEFS are (are as I am aware) somewhat unusual in having "categorical" variables for precipitation type. Therefore, they provide precipitation rate and precipitation types separately.

UK Met and Meteo France models instead combine precipitation types and rate, e.g surface Rain Precipitation Rate [kg/m^2/s], surface Snow Precipitation Rate [kg/m^2/s], surface Graupel (Snow Pellets) Precipitation Rate [kg/m^2/s].
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
lanky
20 November 2024 08:45:32

I think "sleet" would have to be inferred from GFS data because it doesn't exist as a variable. GFS / GEFS are (are as I am aware) somewhat unusual in having "categorical" variables for precipitation type. Therefore, they provide precipitation rate and precipitation types separately.

UK Met and Meteo France models instead combine precipitation types and rate, e.g surface Rain Precipitation Rate [kg/m^2/s], surface Snow Precipitation Rate [kg/m^2/s], surface Graupel (Snow Pellets) Precipitation Rate [kg/m^2/s].

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Watching TV weather in USA I think this is usually labelled as "Mix"
Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Brian Gaze
20 November 2024 08:47:48

Watching TV weather in USA I think this is usually labelled as "Mix"

Originally Posted by: lanky 



Quite possibly, but it would still need to be inferred as there isn't a "Mix" variable either.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 November 2024 08:49:53

I think "sleet" would have to be inferred from GFS data because it doesn't exist as a variable. GFS / GEFS are (are as I am aware) somewhat unusual in having "categorical" variables for precipitation type. Therefore, they provide precipitation rate and precipitation types separately.

UK Met and Meteo France models instead combine precipitation types and rate, e.g surface Rain Precipitation Rate [kg/m^2/s], surface Snow Precipitation Rate [kg/m^2/s], surface Graupel (Snow Pellets) Precipitation Rate [kg/m^2/s].

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yeh so you could do sleet, as I say my recommendation would be to create a bin where if the proportion of total precip in both rain and snow is greater than 0.3 but less than 0.7 then you show it as a different hue.

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Rob K
20 November 2024 09:37:37
GFS and WRF are suggesting that significant snowfall could still affect the far SW tomorrow. 

There's also a disturbance heading SE across Wales right now, which some models show making it almost all the way to the south coast as snow.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Bolty
20 November 2024 10:04:33
Saturday's storm looks like a waste of time for those wanting snow, unless you're at quite a high altitude (and even then, I don't think it will last long). The mild air moves in way too quickly, with 0°C+ uppers already across much of the SW even before the precipitation arrives. By all intents and purposes, it will just be an awful cold and wet day with gale force winds.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 

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