I used to look forward to HP on the charts. Not any more. It is always in the wrong place for that season, and more often than not these days seems to bring cloud and or a cold breeze for the S.E. At least with LP and Atlantic fronts there is a 50/50 chance it will bring the rain at night with the chance of some warm sunny periods by day.

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I used to look forward to HP on the charts. Not any more. It is always in the wrong place for that season, and more often than not these days seems to bring cloud and or a cold breeze for the S.E. At least with LP and Atlantic fronts there is a 50/50 chance it will bring the rain at night with the chance of some warm sunny periods by day.

Agreed I use to be excited with HP before when I used to view charts but now no as you said wrong place and refusing to move over us and to the east. HP is a pest and not useable most times.  The best set up for prolonged hp is from Azores to Scandinavia that give more sunshine for most of us. 

9.5C here this afternoon. Although the outlook isn't promising for warm weather it does look as if there will be a gradual rise to average by the start of May. I'm assuming that is around 15C so will feel positively tropical by then if the sun should show itself from time to time!

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I think the reality has always been that high pressure to our north or north-east is more common at this time of year and brings an easterly drift/wind off a chilly North Sea, making eastern counties cooler and cloudier whilst the western side sees lighter winds and more sunshine. As a cricketer and now umpire I have endured plenty of days like this during the early part of the cricket season.

Of course, warmer seas and more moisture will tend to increase the cloud amounts and the associated risk of drizzle or showers.

........ and me, also doing groundsman duties in cold wet early May's. I really noticed the cold when fielding and do recall a game with snow falling. The season always started two weeks too soon and anything below 17C felt bitter after tea standing in the slips. As you say it is nothing new but I think in recent years we've been spoilt by some early season short lived "heatwaves"  (think Covid lockdowns flocking to the beach!)  and unusually high maxima.
(By the way - for some reason I picture as a dour Boycott style opener or line and length bowler as opposed to my more flamboyant  left handed batting 😄)


 

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As ever, in this climate change era, the west is sunniest and the East cloudiest. This reversal of the norm has been common in the last ten years. I wonder if it is related to the Atlantic being warmer and the North Sea now the temperature the Atlantic used to be.

HP in spring/early summer setting up towards the NW/N/NE and bringing a flow from an easterly quadrant is still the underdog, but I definitely feel like it's happening more often than it used to.

Of course, living in the west, it's a development I welcome! 😁

 

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As ever, in this climate change era, the west is sunniest and the East cloudiest. This reversal of the norm has been common in the last ten years. I wonder if it is related to the Atlantic being warmer and the North Sea now the temperature the Atlantic used to be.

High Pressure to the west and NW is practically an annual event in the spring.
Here on the east coast it is notorious for giving us at least a couple of weeks constantly below 10C with lovely sea fog thrown in at times, while the Lake District and NW Scotland get their only dry and sunny spell of the year with temperatures close to 20C

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while the Lake District and NW Scotland get their only dry and sunny spell of the year with temperatures close to 20C

Well that's garbage.

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WX temp charts still stuck in a rut with milder weather advancing north to the east of Poland, and to a lesser extent into Spain in the west, but both Britain and continental Europe have temps well-below average which have lasted for a couple of weeks and are forecast to continue for the next two; 8C below in the Alps. Rain fairly general for Europe in week 1, excepting Spain, heaviest near the Alps; something drier working south from Scandinavia in week 2, just about reaching S England.

GFS Op - for the coming week, HP currently nearby moves out towards Iceland allowing LP in the Baltic to move closer and generate weak but cold NE-lies for much of Britain. At next weekend the Atlantic remembers its normal function and produces LP near Greenland which tracks quickly S-wards, deepening, to Fastnet 970mb Sat 27th. This swirls around Britain for a few days, filling, before moving further S to Italy  by Thu 2nd. There is then a slow rise of pressure over Britain but LP is never far away to the SW and later the S, so by Tue 7th the E-lies are back.

ECM - similar to GFS for the first week though next weekend's LP is not so deep (only 990mb) and is further to the SW. When it does move away, it moves back to the Atlantic and on Tue 30th pressure has risen enough over N Europe to start influencing Britain.

GEFS - rather cool (Scotland hangs on to something a little milder for the first couple of days), rising to norm Tue 30th with fair ens agreement to that point after which ens members spread out though mean stays near norm. Periods of not-too-heavy rain likely for the week beginning Fri 26th, though wetter in the SW, most but by no means all runs drier after that.

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Agreed I use to be excited with HP before when I used to view charts but now no as you said wrong place and refusing to move over us and to the east. HP is a pest and not useable most times.  The best set up for prolonged hp is from Azores to Scandinavia that give more sunshine for most of us. 

Great post and bang on the money.
Even though the pattern change may bring about settled conditions to end this month, ground temps are going to struggle: 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=202&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Good to see some mature and coherent chat restored today. 

Pretty much the same this morning, still a generally cool outlook but with the added bonus of some easterly garbage yet again. 

Not as wet as it has been but not particularly dry either.

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Well that's garbage.

The only way we can get solid clear blue sky weather like this is from a high located somewhere east. Which is rare enough but can last weeks at a time when it does. Early April to early June most likely period for that to happen. 

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I’m convinced that there has been a significant decrease in the prevalence of SWly winds in the last few years and this is modelled to continue. I wonder if there is a data set available that would show whether this is just my perception. Is it a shift in the climate norm or just a “blip”?

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I agree with that perception. I'd be interested to see if it is confirmed by data on the subject.

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HP to the NE, N, NW at this time of year normally brings warm soring days down here so im not that fussed. 

 

Ecm ensembles at least want to warm it up a bit.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

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Cold and cloudy sums it up for this week. Showery in places. At least the winds will ease for the majority. The recent northerly has made it feel like early February . 
 

WX temp charts show some relief this morning, but not until week 2. Week 1 still has the cool area covering Europe with temperatures universally below norm but warmth then spreads north from the Mediterranean with a jump of 4 to 6C in many parts of France and Germany, and even more in the Balkans. England is also milder but Scotland less improved. Rain distributed widely across Europe in both weeks with no one area dramatically wet - for Britain the emphasis switches from the SW in week 1 to the NW in week 2.

GFS Op - consistent with yesterday's chart for the coming week. The current HP soon moves to Iceland with N/NE-ly winds affecting mainly the E coast of Britain before LP from the N Atlantic develops and runs swiftly SE to Biscay 990mb Sat 27th (not as deep or as close as yesterday). That LP then drifts N to Iceland, filling, and by Wed 1st a rise of pressure in W France brings in mild SW-ly veering W-ly winds. After a brief interruption on Sun 5th while a shallow LP slips past Cornwall, HP is back from the Azores. 

ECM - differs from GFS after Tue 30th with another LP running SE to Cornwall followed by a general fall of pressure over France and on Thu 2nd the E-lies are back, but the source of air is SE Europe, not the Arctic

GEFS - current cool spell finishing sooner than shown yesterday, mean and ens members back to norm by Sat 27th, and mean staying there through to  Tue 7th well supported by ens members. From the 27th, small but noticeable amounts of rain in many but not all runs in the SE, rather more in N &W, from the 27th, but less than shown yesterday, very little before 27th.

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I’m convinced that there has been a significant decrease in the prevalence of SWly winds in the last few years and this is modelled to continue. I wonder if there is a data set available that would show whether this is just my perception. Is it a shift in the climate norm or just a “blip”?

I recently pulled the weather records for 1960-2023 from OpenMeteo for my location. I've loaded them up into an SQL Server so I should be able to do some sort of analysis on it.

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I think the reality has always been that high pressure to our north or north-east is more common at this time of year and brings an easterly drift/wind off a chilly North Sea, making eastern counties cooler and cloudier whilst the western side sees lighter winds and more sunshine. As a cricketer and now umpire I have endured plenty of days like this during the early part of the cricket season.

Of course, warmer seas and more moisture will tend to increase the cloud amounts and the associated risk of drizzle or showers.

Yes, it's nothing unusual for the time of year. Looking at rainfall and sunshine patterns in say western Scotland, you can clearly see how April-June is the sunniest and driest part of the year there, with rainfall picking up notably from July onward as the Atlantic awakens from its spring slumber. Eastern parts of the UK basically get their own version of California's May Grey/June Gloom, with dull chilly mornings often giving way to sunnier, warmer afternoons. It's the reason why I don't really rate June as a summer month here compared to July or August - the frequency of dull, chilly easterlies is simply too high, whereas in August it's unusual to have North Sea gloom because the sea temperatures are higher by then.

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Yes, it's nothing unusual for the time of year. Looking at rainfall and sunshine patterns in say western Scotland, you can clearly see how April-June is the sunniest and driest part of the year there, with rainfall picking up notably from July onward as the Atlantic awakens from its spring slumber. Eastern parts of the UK basically get their own version of California's May Grey/June Gloom, with dull chilly mornings often giving way to sunnier, warmer afternoons. It's the reason why I don't really rate June as a summer month here compared to July or August - the frequency of dull, chilly easterlies is simply too high, whereas in August it's unusual to have North Sea gloom because the sea temperatures are higher.

The thing is if it was “usual” our rainfall wouldn’t be nearly double the average and the sunshine totals half the average (here). I will be pleased to see Ulric’s data if that is possible but the spring has been notably cloudier and wetter than average so far and I suspect the prevalence of easterly weather or at least non-SWly weather plays its part in that. The temperatures have been around the long term average here but with a notable lack of cool clear nights. 

I would happily settle for the “usual” conditions for this time of the year as that is often very pleasant here. On a more positive note there are a few signs of a more anticylonic picture in FI in some of the latest runs. 

(Naturally all the usual caveats if feeling nice in the sunshine at this time of year apply).

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The thing is if it was “usual” our rainfall wouldn’t be nearly double the average and the sunshine totals half the average (here). I will be pleased to see Ulric’s data if that is possible but the spring has been notably cloudier and wetter than average so far and I suspect the prevalence of easterly weather or at least non-SWly weather plays its part in that. The temperatures have been around the long term average here but with a notable lack of cool clear nights. 

I would happily settle for the “usual” conditions for this time of the year as that is often very pleasant here. On a more positive note there are a few signs of a more anticylonic picture in FI in some of the latest runs. 

(Naturally all the usual caveats if feeling nice in the sunshine at this time of year apply).

I'm not saying this spring in particular has been normal - it's clearly been much wetter and duller than average almost everywhere. I'm just saying that the pattern of west = sunnier and east = cloudier is common at this time of year, we see it pretty much every year at some point between March and June. Last May/June is a great example - the first 10 days of June 2023 were pretty chilly and cloudy here, it wasn't until the winds switched to a more S/SE direction that we got hotter, sunnier conditions.

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