The models are struggling with the southerly extent of the jet so caution is still required. 

In this respect the 06z GFS op is a bit crap. The mean is better though so hopefully an outlier, or at least one of the more unsettled options.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

Every run for over a week now has included two or three ensemble members where a proper hot high gets detached over the U.K. and subjects us to a sustained scorcher. But it’s never the op. And in recent summers I can remember countless times seeing repeated ens members doing likewise. So far, and to be honest since 2006, it’s never once transpired except out of season.

Even 2013 didn’t feature a true “red from the med”.

Perhaps, like the beast this year, its time will come and when we get one we’ll get three in short succession. Just hopefully unlike the beast it won’t be the last week in August and the start of September.

The start of the next settled(ish) spell is now creeping into the more reliable timeframe.

The 12z GFS mean cloud cover chart for lunchtime on Monday is probably a good indicator of likely conditions, a lot of cloud towards the NW, but generally sunny and dry in the SE. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_144_33.png

The south of England looks fairly dry and warm for the foreseeable, but much more cloud, wind and some rain in Scotland and Northern Ireland. 

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It looks like changeable weather is expected, and also expected is some very warm and sunny conditions.

There is a chance of rain and showers and Low Pressure but it looks fine and dry sunny at times with westerly winds in the NW and North of the UK.

Pretty normal situation weatherwise for this time of year.

I am pretty happy with the kind of summer we have had in London in May and June so far this year.

But there is one thing- it is if it rained a few more days and it gave the plants and fields regular watering that would be helpful and kind.

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It has been very warm and comfortably warm but not particularly hot and it has so far been a mix of cloudy and sunny days some partially, and the less warm days provided a very welcome relief.

Caught me at a time when I was getting sick of people saying "sick of this easterly, bring back westerlies". To see a fellow NW Englander who's presumably enjoyed a similarly brilliant spell of weather for here under easterlies say [in my mind] that the shift to westerlies (likely meaning crap for us) would have the consolation of the easterners being happy tipped me over the edge. Sorry if I misinterpreted the point you were making.

Bring it on.  Whilst May and June thus far have been warm and summer like, the days have been blighted at times by North sea clag, particularly the mornings.

All I actually meant was a nice ridging Azores high should bring decent enough weather for us , even though it's essentially westerly based, yet bring an end to the eastery muck that has plauged  some areas.

If the Azores High ridges far enough north then the whole of Northern England from Liverpool to Hull could do alright. :) 

At the moment touch and go for our patch. My suspicion at present is fairly cloudy at times but staying generally dry. 

To be honest, at the moment, I'd like to see a little bit of unsettled weather - we could do with the rain. We've got a rainbelt moving in from the West today but I suspect that only the NW half of Britain/Ireland will see appreciable rain form this one.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=fax&model=fax

Saturday looks like the day when we could all see something a bit more substantial.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=Dublin

After that, maybe settling down again. 

Looks quite nondescript to me. 160 for 4 at the tea interval and a bit more life in the pitch than looked likely before start of play. Could go either way. All to play for.

Surprisingly little difference with the Liverpool GEFS, Liverpool with some slightly higher PPN spikes initially and perhaps a degree or two cooler intermittently.

Here's hoping we get a good 5th wicket partnership rather than a more typical middle order collapse ......

This looks quite interesting for here in Edinburgh as there is a hint from the chart below, that we could see temperatures get to above 25ºC here at the end of the month. Furthermore, you can normally add a couple of degrees onto that (at least, that is what Gavin P. always says in his videos) which means that you might be talking about temperatures of 27-28ºC here if that came off.

Of course, that.is only an outlier, and is in the extended unreliable time frame. However, I have said before that we are capable of getting those sorts of temperatures here if we have a decent SSW airflow with high pressure fairly close by. Therefore, this does ask the question of whether or not, this might be the time when this actually happens. and when we therefore get our turn here on the east coast to get some decent summer heat instead of that all being further west as it has been recently.

Think some are being unduly pessimistic.  Forget the inconsistent ecm Op for now the Mean is very good. it's not June 76 but is much better than average temps mid 20s in the south mainly dry away form the far NW. Could be much much worse.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html

Yes, the outlook is none too bad considering June is often the 'monsoon' month

After such an amazing May (and June for so many of us so far), it’s a miracle that at this stage we’re not seeing a barrage of lows pushing across the UK for weeks on end. 

For that reason alone I’m feeling quite optimistic. 

Annoyingly the one significant rain spike for ages and it falls right on Saturday afternoon when we really need a dry day for a family party!

https://www.met.ie/warnings

It seems that we have a named storm, Storm Hector. Only of interest to Irish West coast and possibly Scotland also, though.

Well, there we go. I did say on today's current conditions thread that this approaching weather system would probably be classed as a named storm if this happened during the winter. From what I can see now though, it doesn't seem to matter what time of year that they happen in although this is probably the first time that we've had a named storm during the summer when I would have expected these things to be very rare.

On a side note though and since you are an Irishman, I was wondering what you think about the redesign of the Met Eireann's website. If I was an Irishman, I would be disappointed because the old site at least had the green colour which is traditionally associated with Ireland whereas now, that has been replaced by what I see as a rather horrible looking blue colour. What do you think?

I found the older website a little more user friendly to be honest, but maybe with time I'll get used to the new one. I'm not overly bothered about the colour, to be honest. The only major issue that I have with it is that the rainfall radar history now only goes back a couple of hours whereas it used to go back a good bit further - the longer history was good for letting you see how a rain system was developing etc.

I do think that it's a decent website. It gives good information on recent weather:https://www.met.ie/latest-reports/observations/yesterday , current conditions,https://www.met.ie/latest-reports/observations and excellent monthly data https://www.met.ie/climate/available-data/monthly-data . It really gives a wealth of information - not sure if you have the equivalent in Scotland or the UK? My only beef is that there's no station really close to me. 

Anyone who knows me well enough will know that I would be more than happy if Scotland had its own Met service with its own website. Since that isn't the case though, we have to make do with the UK Met Office site just like everyone else in the UK. Within that, the nearest thing to what you have described is the Met Office observations site at wow.metoffice.gov.uk. That site is a bit more complicated and less user-friendly by once you know you what you are doing, you can get up to a month's worth of data from that at a time from any given weather station.