Furnace heat on the ECM 144:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=na&charthour=144&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

Just posted here...

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx?type=buzz&id=4394&title=Probably+cooler+next+week

Yes Joe ukmo a very hot run has ecm on its side, can’t rule that situation out now, we all know gfs likes to over do energy so it could be a very important moment in summer2018 btw ecm is a very decent run for most the entire run

I think we have to be realistic.

Even in the hottest, most exceptional summers, you will not see high pressure parked over the southern North Sea with hot SE’lies for weeks on end.

All things considered, in the reliable timeframe, the output remains generally warm (hot at times), and generally settled (albeit with the chance of showery rain from the south).

I see little sign of “business as usual” tonight. 

Hopefully GFS will move away from the filth it has been showing for the last 24 hours or so.

Exactly. It's similar to extended cold weather in winter: the patterns shift around and sometimes the models show breakdowns which then get pushed back or fade away.

A brief ebbing away of the high pressure has looked a likely outcome but with high pressure rebuilding from the south-west.

I feel we were in a similar situation at the start of June with some predicting the June 'monsoon' appearing after a settled May and the models were showing a change.

Fast forward to now and that change was a mere blip and the jet trended back northwards and look where we are? I'd say we're odds on for a 'blip' of sorts next week as we break from the current heatwave pattern to something more mixed (but not a washout) before we settle down again by the second week, or mid July.

GFS 00z ramps up the heat in southern counties early next week. Very possible IMO.

This is almost as fascinating as model watching at the height of winter.

Are we on the cusp of a real classic summer or will it all breakdown?

Huge questions as yet unanswered.

this hasn’t changed over the past few days now. My moneys on the rest of July turning nasty.

Overnight GEFS update looks hotter early n/week in the south and pushes the breakdown back a little (I think) 

I sincerely hope you are right. This weather is making me ill. At least in bad weather you can escape under a roof for shelter, but in heat like this there is none, inside or out, day or night. Sick of it. 

Just the same like last year when it was very unsettled the settled weather kept pushing back ward but this time the unsettled weather kept pushing back ward and hope to continue with it and make it pass over the extremely dangerous 15-20th school holiday date zone to ensure to get a decent August this time round.  Would be around 28-33C here for a week now.

It can and it did in 1976 for example. We shall see, but since I am on holiday in the UK for the last 3 weeks of July, it would be just my luck if the weather turned.

Yes, and in 1995. 2003 and 2006 too (2003 was one of those summers where all 3 summer months were much warmer than average). And many more. Of course there's no saying whether this summer will be like any of those, but it's possible. Not sure why people are so pessimistic.