I have just planned my annual summer trip down to Hawick in the Scottish Borders (which will be for a week starting on Monday 16 July 2018) and when I was doing so, I was thinking about what happened last year.
As we all know, last summer was a poor one in this part of the world where we were only ever seeing possible windows for high pressure to be in charge during the foreseeable future. The time which I picked to go down there at that time was roughly at the same time of the month when I will be doing so this time, and I remember the models indicating at the time when this would be the most likely time for high pressure to be in charge.
As it turned out, the models couldn't have been any more wrong when that trip came up because instead of that being the best time to go there in terms of the weather, it ended up being the worst possible as the weekend when I down there in particular, ended up being a complete washout with quite a lot of heavy rain.
This year, everything seems to be different because regardless as how far I'm looking ahead just now on the latest models, all I'm seeing is more or less, the same old pattern which we have been seeing for quite a while with high pressure virtually constantly in charge. This in turn makes me wonder whether or not, there is really any point in me even bothering to look at the latest model runs just now because I already know that they will be telling me that high pressure will be in charge with no change in the weather pattern, regardless of when I decided to make that trip.
Hopefully, that won't make me have egg on my chin with that resulting in the weather turning anyway when my trip comes up with me getting a lot of rain yet again when I'm there. However, it does make the world of model watching rather boring if the models are only ever pointing to us staying in the same old weather pattern all the time even if that is resulting in that decent summer which most of us want.
Originally Posted by: johncs2016