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Things look a bit more uncertain tonight. Extreme heat (35C or higher) looks likely on Thursday and Friday and we may get another go during the first week of August. Onwards...
Looking much cooler after Friday thank god. Hopefully that’s it for summer!
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
Seems a strange thing to say when the ensembles suggest that the most prolonged heat is yet to come, after a brief cool-down next week.
Very much so keep your deicer handy
Somthing Ironic that much cooler is around 25C!
Looks probable that August could be a record breaker.
I hope not... 10 months of drizzle is not a nice thought...🙄
Takes all sorts!
Originally Posted by: Rob K
Edit: met office up until 22.08. “Temperatures are expected to remain widely above average for most, with further spells of very warm or hot conditions probable, and a likelihood of very hot conditions at times, especially in the south.”
Originally Posted by: Sevendust
That comment is as daft as some of your winter is over posts beast lol
xioni2 posted in last thread: https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro
Surprised they don't go higher than that if there are really >25C 850s.
You can see the 850s by going to temperature > 850 on those weather.us links.
(The highest on any of the 52 members on the 12z run yesterday was 23C for London, not 25C).
GEM is very overrated sometimes.
Originally Posted by: superteacher
4th in accuracy after ECM, UKMO and GFS.
Funny how we all look at GFS because it provides so much more free data and runs 4 times a day.
Originally Posted by: TimS
It seems very prone to big swings and showing more extreme conditions.
GEFS are the hottest I've seen this summer the Control run gives a week of 35c + .
ECM is stunning again to start August although the high doesn't quite get in the right position to draw up the highest uppers. Still 30c in the south by day 9 though.
Yes the ECM doesn’t quite draw up the 15C+ air but it still looks very warm and settled. The first week to 10 days of August at least look odds-on to be very summery, even away from the SE.
Even the GEM grudgingly gives us some warmth in the end.
The ECM would be very nice. Ideally we can squeeze out a 35C this week and then settle into an August of absolute drought, long sunshine hours and late 20s-30C temperatures.
That would be fine as I like to see other areas to join in and see their lakes water levels dropping further to reveal houses which they show a lot in 1989 and 1990 summers. Either August get a very hot one or June type set-up, either way let take this and avoid seeing boring rain showers/cold and wet days this summer full time. Plus Uk cannot go cold and wet since all countries around us are baking hot at the moment and this will eventually cool down in Autumn. Sea temps now 19-21C in North sea, SW UK and off S Ireland so that ensure HP easily settled over us.
https://www.seatemperature.org/
Originally Posted by: doctormog
Tgis is probably the difference between inshore / tidal waters and open sea temperatures. I can well imagine Chichester harbour, which is quite shallow, getting to 25C.
GEM's verification stats tend to be very similar to the GFS. For July NH SLP it's ahead in the 1 to 5 day range (3rd behind ECM and UKMO), but as suspected it tends to fall behind GFS in the 6 to 10 day range.