Yes the FAX for Sunday 12Z is a classic early autumnal depression - down to 995mb just east of Belfast and a vigorous flow covering virtually the whole country. Lots of rain and wind on that one.

It will be interesting to see how the models respond to the resurgent jet. I would be very surprised if high pressure reasserts as quickly as the models have suggested.

I suspect now that August may well be very different to June and July.

 

 

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Well GFS, still builds pressure strongly over the UK by T192. Putting my optimistic hat on, the low pressure might just serve to bottle up the heat to the south and we still get a burst of heat a few days later, maybe more like August 6/7 instead of 3/4.

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Kudos to John Hammond!

As I said a few days ago, when the pattern breaks it often stays broken. 

 

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Well let's not get too hasty - that's not what the models are showing at the moment. GFS 6Z is showing a longer unsettled spell, sure, but it's still less than a week before everywhere is settled down again. It also still looks rather warm by T180, at least on the op run.

 

If we get this set-up by the first weekend of August, then I am happy to put up with a few wet days in the meantime (I'd like my water butt filled anyway!)

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we can hardly say kudos to JH yet can we.

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the trend is only going one way and that is the jet cutting through the block. But in the south it will still be hot

 

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Is it going to be very wet in the SE during the next week? I wouldn't put my money on it. Thunderstorms during the next 48 hours look hit and miss. Frontal systems which now look quite active may well fizzle more than the latest GFS output is suggesting. 

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As does the ecm mean

 

 

Kudos for what exactly? Are you aware you're posting complete tripe?

John was (still is?) predicting a washout August. What the models are showing is a wet weekend (how wet in the far SE is yet to be determined IMO) followed by a swift return to high pressure and above-average temperatures for the start of August.

Again, can I implore that every time we get a bit of Atlantic influence - it doesn't necessarily mean a pattern change. The ensembles continue to look dry for the first half of August.

 

Ironically after the shaky start this GFS run could end up being a real scorcher. Look at that mass of >20C air to the south if it can just nudge north a little....

 

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Didn't realise that August had passed us by already and that it was dreadful after that end of July pattern change?

Also, considering John Hammond said the same thing a while ago, it would hardly be kudos to John Hammond if it does happen. He was always going to be right eventually. Might as well say Kudos to Daily Express for seeing this heatwave coming.

the far SE will only have small amounts but I am sure my drought will be broken which is a shame as we had a great chance to break the record

I suppose we will have to wait another 42 years!

 

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I've read that in a few places recently. The wiki definition of a drought is:

A drought is a period of below-average precipitation in a given region, resulting in prolonged shortages in the water supply, whether atmospheric, surface water or ground water.

How will a period of rain "break the drought?"

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20C 850s nudging into the SW. If this is a pattern change then bring it on TBH

 

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The jet rides over our high pressure for the start of August. It actually looks more akin to June's weather with less cloud cover and more in the way of blue skies. The Scandi block is gone but I wonder whether longer term our high moves north-east thus reforming it.

Again, nothing to suggest, barring this brief blip at the weekend and early next week, that a washout month is on the cards. The drought looks like continuing for many eastern areas.

 

Whats happened to you Geoff? you never used to be like this

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=252&mode=0&carte=1

This is a more normal summer pattern now. north south divide, but the beast has been shredded

 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=276&mode=1

we still get a taste of the extreme heat but only for southern counties

 

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Yep, just a normal day at the office.

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Pardon? Yorkshire is now a southern county? 

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Rob you were correct. We still get a shot at record

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=1

 

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Only for southern counties? I'm going to be in the Yorkshire Dales that week and I would take this. They might even remove their flat 'ats!

 

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It bloody well isn't! 

Nice to see the slow build of heat on the 06z. IMO it's a much better run than the 00z preceding it 

A lesson for those jumping to conclusions before a run has completed 

Brrr. Around 30C for here. Better get out my woolly hat 

All gets blown away right at the end but I think most would still be happy with that run!

 

I imagine that one will be at the top end of the ensemble but will be interesting to see if the theme for high pressure to build is maintained. The 00Z set had quite a few stragglers collapsing the block altogether.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

 

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