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Ally Pally Snowman
26 July 2018 16:53:04

Another brutally hot run from GFS.  High 30s in the south . 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
26 July 2018 16:58:01


Another brutally hot run from GFS.  High 30s in the south . 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Likely a repeat of 2003 and the real heat in Spain and France have to go somewhere and that UK since it large area and UK cannot escape this time.  Also nice to give nationwide heatwave to finish off what a good summer so far.

Ally Pally Snowman
26 July 2018 17:00:49


 


Likely a repeat of 2003 and the real heat in Spain and France have to go somewhere and that UK since it large area and UK cannot escape this time.  Also nice to give nationwide heatwave to finish off what a good summer so far.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


 


100f most definitely on in August if GFS is on the money.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Richard K
26 July 2018 17:40:32
Euro 4 gives some hope of rainfall for here tomorrow morning and again tomorrow eve, fingers crossed
https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=15&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 
Saffron Walden, NW Essex, approx 70m above sea level (when the tide is out)
Heavy Weather 2013
26 July 2018 18:06:33
Interesting Ensembles. Range of outcomes in terms of 850s even 6-12hrs ahead.

Overall the suite next week looks slightly cooler than 06z. But the theme remains - high pressure dominant - temperatures hot.

Nothing will be settled until Monday at the earliest.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
White Meadows
26 July 2018 18:23:24


 


Likely a repeat of 2003 and the real heat in Spain and France have to go somewhere and that UK since it large area and UK cannot escape this time.  Also nice to give nationwide heatwave to finish off add to what a good summer so far.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Corrected.

Rob K
26 July 2018 18:31:46
12Z GFS ensemble is more of a 50/50 split, with the op in the warm set. The mean has been creeping downwards for a while now. I think it will jump one way or the other in the next 24 hours and we'll either see a decent hot spell growing in confidence or the resurgent jet confirmed and a more traditional summer pattern taking hold.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
26 July 2018 19:08:17
Nothings agreed till everything’s agreed. But I’m in France so it’s already agreed we’re heading for a sweltering couple of weeks. To be honest, despite generally loving heat, I’m not looking forward to 2003 style canicule for days on end.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
26 July 2018 19:09:18
ECM is quite different from GFS by 240, with a Scandi high rather than a trough, and heights a bit lower over the UK. Still looks pretty settled albeit not too scorching.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
26 July 2018 19:11:58

Whether we get record temps or just warm it looks very dry after the 30th July.


 


 



 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Weathermac
26 July 2018 19:21:08


Whether we get record temps or just warm it looks very dry after the 30th July.


 


 



 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Yes looks high pressure all the way till mid august just depends where it resides as to whether we get dry heat or dry warm weather.

some faraway beach
26 July 2018 19:44:01

Euro 4 gives some hope of rainfall for here tomorrow morning and again tomorrow eve, fingers crossed
Originally Posted by: Richard K 

">https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=15&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


That looks quite decent for the early Saturday morning down here too. 

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
moomin75
26 July 2018 19:52:12


 


 


Yes looks high pressure all the way till mid august just depends where it resides as to whether we get dry heat or dry warm weather.


Originally Posted by: Weathermac 

But I thought Ian Brown said it was all over? How confusing.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
CreweCold
26 July 2018 19:59:21

Ensembles look dry at the moment...but we all know how the weather evolves as the days tick by. Pretty sure this weekend was shown unanimously to be mainly dry in the ensembles until we got to about 6/7 days out or so. Looking ahead to 10 days is pretty futile and ensembles don't change this fact. 


I mean just look at the 850s spread change within the GEFS between the 6z and 12z for next weekend...


Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
Ally Pally Snowman
26 July 2018 20:14:24

Once again the ECM means are more settled and hotter than the Op. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gavin D
26 July 2018 20:34:11

Met office still say 37c tomorrow Euro 4 says 31c BBC say 32c


 


927307738_DjDuUDJW4A8rjbq.jpglarge.thumb.jpg.acbb8b6f4ab109eb4ebc7be4179186a0.jpg


 


 

Arcus
26 July 2018 20:38:56


Met office still say 37c tomorrow Euro 4 says 31c BBC say 32c


 


927307738_DjDuUDJW4A8rjbq.jpglarge.thumb.jpg.acbb8b6f4ab109eb4ebc7be4179186a0.jpg


 


 


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


I think we all know that it's all about the cloud (about the cloud) that's hanging around from any convection (I've been saying it for 2 days now), so all scenarios are on the table, it's a case of seeing what happens on the day. It's not a MetO v BBC vs EurAperge blah situation.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Weathermac
26 July 2018 20:41:02


But I thought Ian Brown said it was all over? How confusing.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Ian's record speaks for itself....🤡🤡

superteacher
26 July 2018 20:44:40


 


I think we all know that it's all about the cloud (about the cloud) that's hanging around from any convection (I've been saying it for 2 days now), so all scenarios are on the table, it's a case of seeing what happens on the day. It's not a MetO v BBC vs EurAperge blah situation.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Well no convection tonight in the Se / East Anglia, so tomorrow should dawn clear.

golfingmad
26 July 2018 20:52:04


 


Well no convection tonight in the Se / East Anglia, so tomorrow should dawn clear.


Originally Posted by: superteacher 


Yes clear skies here just east of Cambridge, and still hot. Every chance the date record may be challenged tomorrow, which is 34.4C (Margate and Cambridge Botanic Gardens 1933). 

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
danm
  • danm
  • Advanced Member
26 July 2018 20:58:50
Re the Met Office v Euro4 v BBC for tomorrow’s maximum temp forecast - the Met have stated 37c in their video forecasts yet their app for London (taking into account raw UKMO data I’m assuming) shows a high of 31c tomorrow.
Home: London (NE)
Work: London (Central)
xioni2
26 July 2018 20:59:17


Ensembles look dry at the moment...but we all know how the weather evolves as the days tick by. Pretty sure this weekend was shown unanimously to be mainly dry in the ensembles until we got to about 6/7 days out or so. Looking ahead to 10 days is pretty futile and ensembles don't change this fact. 


I mean just look at the 850s spread change within the GEFS between the 6z and 12z for next weekend...


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


Actually the EC ens was showing this weekend to be the most unsettled period already from the middle of last week. I thought it was underestimating the block, but I was wrong.


Ensembles are of course just another tool with their own benefits and limitations. Yes they are and likely to remain fickle too, but it is not futile any more to look at 10 or even 20 days out.


In fact the EC46 already shows directional skill (hot/cold, low/high pressure) for a bit more than 3 weeks ahead.


 

Brian Gaze
27 July 2018 05:27:32

There has been quite a lot of OT comments in here recently and people discussing other people rather than the weather. I've let it go but will now start deleting user accounts again.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
White Meadows
27 July 2018 05:53:38

00z builds the heat again especially the end of next week with high pressure once again taking control:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_165_1.png


 

Brian Gaze
27 July 2018 05:56:28

Big change. Heatwave? What heatwave? 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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