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Whether Idle
19 August 2018 08:40:09


 


August has been a real disappointment here too, after the excellent weather we saw during much of June and July. It's almost been a throwback to what was commonplace last year and during many other summers over the past decade or so.


This year may have generally ended the long run of poor summers in years ending in 8, but the run of medicore Augusts, for many areas, seems to have continued this year.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Much comment, as ever, is perception rather than factually based, as the statistics show that August has been warmer and drier and sunnier than the LTA for many parts of the UK.


 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
SOakley
19 August 2018 08:47:03


 


It certainly does feel autumnal now and feels like summer has gone,this year summer was definatly May June and July.It seems over the past decade or so June and July have given the best summer weather and most years summer returns in September.


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


 


 


And October,in recent years,had as many 20C + days in October than we seem to get in August,just with the shorter days,the nights are a lot cooler.

David M Porter
19 August 2018 08:50:38


 


Much comment, as ever, is perception rather than factually based, as the statistics show that August has been warmer and drier and sunnier than the LTA for many parts of the UK.


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


That may be true for many areas according to stats, but my recollection of this month going back to and including August 1st is that it has not been warmer, drier and sunnier than the LTA for my area. Even if it has been so for south-eastern areas, I suspect that many areas towards the NW of the UK will have had similar weather to that of my area over the last fortnight or so.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
LeedsLad123
19 August 2018 08:52:37


 


Much comment, as ever, is perception rather than factually based, as the statistics show that August has been warmer and drier and sunnier than the LTA for many parts of the UK.


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


As I mentioned, it's been warmer and drier than average thus far here, though sunshine levels have been entirely unremarkable and most days recently have been cloudy (though this being the UK, getting cloudy days in the summer is obviously not uncommon).


The cool down next week will decide this month's fate though. The mean here so far is 18C, and has only dropped slowly recently (milder nights in particular have helped) - but any potent cool down will really put a dent in the monthly mean. 


Time will tell.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
some faraway beach
19 August 2018 08:54:51


 


It’s been crap in the southwest too. I’m camping in Devon and it’s been 17-18C maxes and it’s currently grey and drizzly. We arrived on Wednesday and the wind and rain wednesday night was incredible. It flattened our tent at 2.30am and snapped the poles in three places. We almost gave up but managed to strap it up using table legs and did at least get a reasonably sunny day on Thursday. But yes, August has been rubbish away from the SE corner. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I know I shouldn't, but I laughed out loud reading this.


I do hope you managed  a few memorable moments for the right reasons though.


Noticeably cooler overnight temps next weekend: around 11C even for the south east on last night's ECM ensemble.  That's verging on the point you turn on the heating or put on a coat:



2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
SOakley
19 August 2018 08:55:26


 


Much comment, as ever, is perception rather than factually based, as the statistics show that August has been warmer and drier and sunnier than the LTA for many parts of the UK.


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


 


 


We have been spoiled with what we had in may,june and july. August has been nothing like the previous 3 months,but still probably the best August in 4 years in these parts,pleasantly warm and dry,only rained on 4-5 days so far this month,so far from being a washout like the August of the previous 2-3 years

Ally Pally Snowman
19 August 2018 08:56:21


 


Much comment, as ever, is perception rather than factually based, as the statistics show that August has been warmer and drier and sunnier than the LTA for many parts of the UK.


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Take out the very hot and sunny first week its been average even in the south. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
LeedsLad123
19 August 2018 09:21:30


 


Take out the very hot and sunny first week its been average even in the south. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


You can say that about most months - take out this week or that week and everything changes. But then it kind of defeats  the purpose of having monthly averages, doesn't it? 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
19 August 2018 11:49:53

At the moment, it is best to look as far ahead as T168, upto Saturday the 25th.


The best prediction is shown by the UKMO and ECMWF Models, and GFS is not far behind.


The fine dry and settled weather has again dominated this Weekend and next weeks prediction and the models have handled it ok so far.


There is Low Pressure coming in by Thursday 23rd, for the UK, from NE Canada PV Low Pressure complex, it shall bring some cloud and outbreaks of rain then showers scattering the UK in NNW or NW winds, veering WNW at times.


Sunday to Wednesday looks very good across large parts of the UK, with NE UK currently getting cool NW winds and a few showers as the Tropical disturbance short wave Low passes over to N. Sea.


Norwegian Sea and NE N. Europe Low Pressure is in charge, and a strong Greenland High Pressure area also as well, where cold dry conditions prevail sometimes not always.


NW Atlantic affected by NE USA Low, and SW to SE Greenland and NE Canada Low Pressure track over to Northwest then N. Atlantic then UK and then Denmark Norway Sweden etc, but High Pressure does ridge over Sweden and SE Norway on some occasions that is still expected.


Retrogression of the Azores High in a few locations in our side of the Northern Hemisphere, act as a few days of blocked weather pattern but Zonality does take control across the area bringing chilly and cool air SE from the NW, then it goes NE from the UK.


 


Not much sunshine here in London where I am, so I am missing it a lot..


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 August 2018 06:45:01

GFS and ECM show a pattern for the next week and more of HP off to the west, sometimes ballooning in our direction for warm sunny days, mainly but not exclusively in the south, alternating with retreats allowing a fresh NW to come in.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Arcus
20 August 2018 06:56:05
2 runs in a row UKMO showing a dartboard low for the BH weekend over the UK. It does seem to be out on it's own on this compared to other output at the moment thankfully.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
danm
  • danm
  • Advanced Member
20 August 2018 07:21:22

Apart from the UKMO which only goes out to Sunday and shows a deep low slap bang over the UK on that day, there is plenty to be happy about on this mornings operationals for those who want more warm and sunny weather.

The GFS and ECM both show high pressure building in by the end of the weekend and becoming dominant throughout next week for most of the UK.

Sunday is a transition day, however as mentioned, the UKMO looks pretty bleak on Sunday compared to the ECM/GFS. We’ll have to see over the next few days how the UKMO wants to handle the early part of next week.
Home: London (NE)
Work: London (Central)
David M Porter
20 August 2018 09:29:22

Apart from the UKMO which only goes out to Sunday and shows a deep low slap bang over the UK on that day, there is plenty to be happy about on this mornings operationals for those who want more warm and sunny weather.

The GFS and ECM both show high pressure building in by the end of the weekend and becoming dominant throughout next week for most of the UK.

Sunday is a transition day, however as mentioned, the UKMO looks pretty bleak on Sunday compared to the ECM/GFS. We’ll have to see over the next few days how the UKMO wants to handle the early part of next week.

Originally Posted by: danm 


It could be that UKMO is going off on one with the deep low pressure it is indicating for next Sunday, but we shall see. FWIW, I have comments from one or two people in the past about the accuracy or otherwise of the UKMO 144hr charts. I am not saying it will be proved wrong on this occasion and GFS and ECM will be proved correct, but maybe we should wait and see what the next few runs from each of those models indicate before we can come to any real conclusion.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Arcus
20 August 2018 13:15:00


 


It could be that UKMO is going off on one with the deep low pressure it is indicating for next Sunday, but we shall see. FWIW, I have comments from one or two people in the past about the accuracy or otherwise of the UKMO 144hr charts. I am not saying it will be proved wrong on this occasion and GFS and ECM will be proved correct, but maybe we should wait and see what the next few runs from each of those models indicate before we can come to any real conclusion.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


I'd say that about half of the GFS 06z GEFS are going for a similar outcome to the UKMO now, with LP centred over the UK at some point during the BH weekend. Evolving trend or blip?


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Arcus
20 August 2018 17:36:33
UKMO not as keen on the 12z to develop the Bank Holiday low, sending the energy south without really developing too horrendously. 12z GEFS are a lively bunch - some are showing an absolute stinker of a low for the weekend, others show a shallow low crossing the country. 12z GEM very similar to UKMO.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Arcus
20 August 2018 18:44:48

UKMO not as keen on the 12z to develop the Bank Holiday low, sending the energy south without really developing too horrendously. 12z GEFS are a lively bunch - some are showing an absolute stinker of a low for the weekend, others show a shallow low crossing the country. 12z GEM very similar to UKMO.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


...and ECM has joined in now on that disturbance coming through over the weekend. How far it develops and whether it sticks to that track is a headache. Especially for those of us foolish enough to be going to a festival later this week. 


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Polar Low
20 August 2018 21:04:59

There was a reason so many bond movies-have been shown over the years bank holiday August.


Many boot sales as well been called off over the years, I used to have this week following BH for my surf trip to Cornwall but stoped as weather always much better there around mid September.



 


I'd say that about half of the GFS 06z GEFS are going for a similar outcome to the UKMO now, with LP centred over the UK at some point during the BH weekend. Evolving trend or blip?


Originally Posted by: Arcus 

marco 79
21 August 2018 08:08:32
GEFS heading for a warm up post 'bank holiday blip'...looking fairly dry too..
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
danm
  • danm
  • Advanced Member
21 August 2018 09:19:21

A generally very good outlook on this mornings runs for those who want dry, sunny, warm weather.

Much cooler later this week and into the weekend, but even then there should be some decent sunny spells.

Into early next week we see the N/S split developing early on with low pressure still close by to the north, high pressure to the south. After that, growing agreement for the high pressure to extend to most parts of the UK at the turn of the month.

Down here in the SE it’s been a warm few days, mid 20s and humid with some decent sunshine at times. A cooler blip this weekend and then it looks like getting back to warm, dry, sunny weather.
Home: London (NE)
Work: London (Central)
andy-manc
21 August 2018 09:29:16

I've been looking in here for the past few weeks and every day people seem to say a similar thing. Settling down next week with high pressure pushing further north later on. It's becoming difficult to believe because it doesn't seem to be getting any closer!

briggsy6
21 August 2018 09:38:56

The generally dry theme persists down here as it has now since about May.


Location: Uxbridge
cultman1
21 August 2018 12:43:41
I agree I see no sign of an improvement after the bank holiday
Just a continuation of cool conditions everywhere with the HP stuck in mid Atlantic with a northerly feed countrywide
I was under the impression the weather was going to improve next week with high pressure building but now no sign ?
Ally Pally Snowman
21 August 2018 13:21:03

I agree I see no sign of an improvement after the bank holiday
Just a continuation of cool conditions everywhere with the HP stuck in mid Atlantic with a northerly feed countrywide
I was under the impression the weather was going to improve next week with high pressure building but now no sign ?

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


 


Not sure what output you're looking at but virtually all output I can see has high pressure building in over the the UK  starting around the 28th August . Things can change but money on a settled and very warm end of August/early September 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
21 August 2018 13:55:22
Well I'm still having to water my vegetable plot and have recently started watering a section of the lawn because it was TOO far gone. August hasn't been a great month here but it has been pretty decent. On balance the rain events (one did) haven't lived up to the simulations.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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