http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=108&mode=0&carte=0

GFS control. ouch

most of the GEFS look nasty. Hope this is just GFS off on one

106Mph (170kph) now recorded at Great Dun Fell

Even lower down though it's hairy, Carlisle has seen gusts of 78mph (125kph)

Weather online linky poo

And the forecasting for Sunday continue to be a ball ache where UKMO just isn't interested at all: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2018091912/UW96-21.GIF?19-18

While of course GFS still gulps down the Red Bull with showing something of a "sting jet" like feature just off East Kent at 6 pm on the day - even though the whole thing has a slight downgrade in the pressure centre: https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/2018/09/19/basis12/ukuk/uv10/18092318_1912.gif

Thus highlighting the uncertainty of forecasting an "unpredictable" runner low from 4 days away.

All eyes on ECM, then.

Somewhat of a downgrade one day later, but not enough for me yet. Hopefully the trend will continue!

EDIT: the "poor man's ensemble" hides a few howlers, too:

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2002/arpegeuk-11-106-0_liw7.png

ARPEGE - the model that got the Great Storm of 87 right - peaks at 75mph gusts for Kent, whereas ICON:

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1483/iconeu_uk1-11-108-0_zlr9.png

shows a "sting (jet) in the tail" situation, with a brief pulse of 75mph gusts clipping the far east of Kent.

GEM has mean 50mph winds on Sunday evening down here as well, which'd imply gusts in the 70mph range:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/GEM/12_126_windvector.png?cb=25

Not looking terribly encouraging for us SE crew at the moment, but still time for change.

That was showing yesterday's 12z GEM. Today's update is below (I've staticised it) and would suggest gust speeds of close to 90mph.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/static/20180919184541198_12_102_windvector.png

Some do look nasty across the gfs set no 1 we just don’t want as it does a nasty twist 141k given on that member a few at round 100 some still don’t want to know I guess we might have to wait until late Friday to really know

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=13&sort=0

Early October is worth watching too. GEFS shows some very chilly runs and a snowrow as far south as Birmingham. 

And ECM's lost interest for Sunday's feature . . . at least for now. It's just GEM and GFS still running with it.

The Met Office is forecasting relatively benign conditions - certainly no gales at beginning of next week (just some steady rain in the S),

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=120&nh=1&archive=0.

I think to be fair it’s about probabilities at the moment to say Met are forecasting relatively benign conditions for Sunday and Monday does seem to be misleading.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-09-23

Between 09:00 Sun 23rd and 09:00 Mon 24th

 Potential for another very windy spell across parts of the UK on Sunday and into early Monday.

What to expect

• There is a small chance of injuries and danger to life from flying debris


• There is a slight chance of some damage to buildings, such as tiles blown from roofs or through falling trees and branches


• There is a small chance of longer journey times or cancellations as road, rail, air and ferry services are affected


• There is a slight chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage


• There is a small chance that injuries and danger to life could occur from large waves and beach material being thrown onto sea fronts, coastal roads and properties

Arpege 12z shows heavy snow in parts of Wales on Sunday.

Good point; is slight smaller than small? A self- created torro scale!

It would be fair to say GFS hasn’t done too well with Sunday’s potential storm which had now virtually dissolved into a shallow wave on most of its suite.
I won’t drop the potential all together though as there are obviously some fine trigger points being modelled (or not) that could still tip the balance in favour of more rigorous cyclogenesis as per previous output.
Still looking very wet across the south though.

Edit: 00Z ECM - let’s just say this isn’t resolved yet and the MO warnings are still valid IMO. Be interesting to see what the chief forecasters assessment is today.

At the moment rain looks likely to be the main problem in southern and central areas this weekend. ICON seems to be handling the evolution a lot more consistently than GFS and it hasn't been interested in very stormy winds on Sunday.

Yes ironic as soon as GFS drops Sundays storm ECM ramps it up 100kph to 140kph gusts over a wide area.

Today's forecast seems to have gone tits up again. It's raining here now yet I thought the South East was supposed to stay  dry until tonight?