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Global Warming
20 September 2018 10:31:59


 


 


Yes ironic as soon as GFS drops Sundays storm ECM ramps it up 100kph to 140kph gusts over a wide area.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


We almost had cross model agreement this morning that Sunday's low would be a fairly shallow feature running along the English Channel with heavy rain more of an issue than strong winds. But ECM is the odd one out and is probably the main reason why the Met O has retained the yellow warning for Sunday, at least for now. Wind gusts of 70mph widely across the Thames Valley and 80mph along Bristol Channel coasts. That is certainly strong enough for significant disruption. So we still need to keep an eye on this one.


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/4b189da40fc6a78cea10c86042ae26e0/gusts-3h-mph/20180923-1500z.html


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/oxfordshire/gusts-3h-mph/20180923-1500z.html

nsrobins
20 September 2018 10:35:57
It’s all rather confusing regards Sunday to say the least.
At least with the silly season approaching we can rest easy with the fact the models are much more reliable with regard Easterly outbreaks.
I’ll get my coat (with seaweed adornments) 😂😂
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Ally Pally Snowman
20 September 2018 10:44:18


 


We almost had cross model agreement this morning that Sunday's low would be a fairly shallow feature running along the English Channel with heavy rain more of an issue than strong winds. But ECM is the odd one out and is probably the main reason why the Met O has retained the yellow warning for Sunday, at least for now. Wind gusts of 70mph widely across the Thames Valley and 80mph along Bristol Channel coasts. That is certainly strong enough for significant disruption. So we still need to keep an eye on this one.


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/4b189da40fc6a78cea10c86042ae26e0/gusts-3h-mph/20180923-1500z.html


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/oxfordshire/gusts-3h-mph/20180923-1500z.html


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


You'd have to expect the ECM to back down tonight but all models have been struggling with these storms.


Tonight's storm has been named Bronagh with gusts of 65mph for me that's not worthy of naming a storm. 80mph + would be my base for naming a storm.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
bradders
20 September 2018 11:00:19


 


 



Counter argument is that they say they have evidence that naming storms saves lives (as people are more likely to heed to the warnings than if they just say it's an area of low pressure) -  Personally I'm not a fan as it all seems very arbitrary and random, especially when you're dealing with a storm that has its origins in a storm that's already been named...


But I think we just have accept that it is what it is and "go with the flow" LOL! 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I explained about the naming of storms to my wife, she says they should all be called `sh1t storms`.


Eric. Cheadle Hulme, Stockport.
Russwirral
20 September 2018 14:50:16

Anyone picking up on the GFS's appetite for northern blocking so early in the year?


 


We dont usually see charts with a wintry nature in them until the end of October, or well into November.  ]


 


Is it just me?


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
nsrobins
20 September 2018 17:36:17
Maybe a thread for Sunday is required?
Still waiting for the 12Z EC but GEM looks like GFS did a few days ago with earlier and deeper cyclogenesis on Sunday.
Going to the wire this one.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
bledur
20 September 2018 17:37:31


 


 


You'd have to expect the ECM to back down tonight but all models have been struggling with these storms.


Tonight's storm has been named Bronagh with gusts of 65mph for me that's not worthy of naming a storm. 80mph + would be my base for naming a storm.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 I think there is potential for stronger winds tonight as the front goes through. Pressure maps showing possibility of viscious little low forming.


Global Warming
20 September 2018 18:13:45

Maybe a thread for Sunday is required?
Still waiting for the 12Z EC but GEM looks like GFS did a few days ago with earlier and deeper cyclogenesis on Sunday.
Going to the wire this one.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


12z ARPEGE also looking quite nasty for the SE on Sunday night


60-65mph across the home counties


Chart image


But 70-77mph across Kent as the storm exits


Chart image


ECM has 65-70mph as well widely for southern areas. Higher along Kent and Sussex coasts


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/gusts-3h-mph/20180923-1500z.html


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/118f9c5ed1e62f483b855b82b158f827/gusts-3h-mph/20180923-1800z.html

Ally Pally Snowman
20 September 2018 18:20:39


 


12z ARPEGE also looking quite nasty for the SE on Sunday night


60-65mph across the home counties


Chart image


But 70-77mph across Kent as the storm exits


Chart image


ECM has 65-70mph as well widely for southern areas. Higher along Kent and Sussex coasts


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/gusts-3h-mph/20180923-1500z.html


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/118f9c5ed1e62f483b855b82b158f827/gusts-3h-mph/20180923-1800z.html


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


over 100mph for EA as well GW.  ECM really ramping it up crazy

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Crepuscular Ray
20 September 2018 18:24:47
Missing the action!

Next 7 days here in Western Algarve 30-35 C maxes, 18-20C mins and sunny.....just like the last 21 days 😮
Big High just to the north and slack Iberian Low....winds mostly between NW and NE in the next week and light 👍😎
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Ally Pally Snowman
20 September 2018 18:27:17

ECM has 111mph max gust on Sunday on Norfolk coast madness! 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Global Warming
20 September 2018 18:45:25


ECM has 111mph max gust on Sunday on Norfolk coast madness! 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


That will likely be an extreme solution when the ENS roll out. Scrolling back through the 0z ENS there were a few of the 50 members that had gusts of 90 - 105mph for Sunday. But equally there are a greater number of runs that show nothing more than a brisk breeze. So I think that highlights the significant uncertainty that remains for Sunday at the moment. Don't place too much emphasis on the operational run.

Ally Pally Snowman
20 September 2018 19:01:26


 


That will likely be an extreme solution when the ENS roll out. Scrolling back through the 0z ENS there were a few of the 50 members that had gusts of 90 - 105mph for Sunday. But equally there are a greater number of runs that show nothing more than a brisk breeze. So I think that highlights the significant uncertainty that remains for Sunday at the moment. Don't place too much emphasis on the operational run.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


Yes long way to go yet be interesting to see if the GFS picks up the storm again tomorrow.  

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Polar Low
20 September 2018 19:06:56

Ecm not clever GW really does smash in model not noted for getting drunk on high energy systems looks nasty close up if opp is to believed.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0



 


That will likely be an extreme solution when the ENS roll out. Scrolling back through the 0z ENS there were a few of the 50 members that had gusts of 90 - 105mph for Sunday. But equally there are a greater number of runs that show nothing more than a brisk breeze. So I think that highlights the significant uncertainty that remains for Sunday at the moment. Don't place too much emphasis on the operational run.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Global Warming
20 September 2018 19:10:39


 


 


Yes long way to go yet be interesting to see if the GFS picks up the storm again tomorrow.  


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


It is there on the GFS op run just not as potent.


GEFS perturbations 8, 18 and 20 are similar to ECM op run. So maybe a 1 in 7 chance of that extreme solution coming off. Plenty of other runs with an almost identical synoptic set up except the low is 5mb or so shallower.


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018092012/gens-8-1-84.png


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018092012/gens-18-1-78.png


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018092012/gens-20-1-78.png

Polar Low
20 September 2018 19:21:25
Global Warming
20 September 2018 19:31:47


🤔http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


I think this is what you are trying to show. Certainly looks nasty.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPUK12_75_1.png

Polar Low
20 September 2018 19:35:27

Yes it was, Thanks GW I hate doing links on IPad



 


I think this is what you are trying to show. Certainly looks nasty.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPUK12_75_1.png


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 September 2018 21:35:59
I thought it was all looking safe for flying on Sunday afternoon. After a decidedly hairy last 10 minutes of a flight into Heathrow this evening I’m going to be watching those charts carefully.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 September 2018 06:38:57

Big cycle event in Sussex (15000 riders) due on Sunday cancelled on H&S grounds.


Much local relief as the 9 hours of  closed roads will no longer lock people in their houses (not exaggerating - unless you're on foot you can't access or cross the route for this time)

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
roadrunnerajn
21 September 2018 06:44:04
We are also waiting to hear if our cycling event will take place this Sunday. It starts just north of Newquay and the routes go very close to the coast. Final decision will be made tomorrow afternoon.
With possible gusts to 55mph I'd say it will probably be cancelled....
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
Rob K
21 September 2018 09:36:21


Big cycle event in Sussex (15000 riders) due on Sunday cancelled on H&S grounds.


Much local relief as the 9 hours of  closed roads will no longer lock people in their houses (not exaggerating - unless you're on foot you can't access or cross the route for this time)


Originally Posted by: DEW 


As a cyclist (albeit mostly off-road), events like that really annoy me. They seem purpose-designed to make people hate cyclists, and they certainly need no encouragement to do that.


 


Anyway, OT... the track of Sunday's low seems to have shifted southwards a little. 


 


ARPEGE has a perfect Channel low. If only it was February, etc....


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
bowser
21 September 2018 09:54:00

I thought it was all looking safe for flying on Sunday afternoon. After a decidedly hairy last 10 minutes of a flight into Heathrow this evening I’m going to be watching those charts carefully.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


It was bumpy on the way out too, especially on a prop plane!

doctormog
21 September 2018 11:01:40
The GFS op run continues its recent trend of dragging cold air in from the north around the first week of October.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_1.png  Not exceptional but cold for early to mid autumn.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Russwirral
21 September 2018 11:21:08

The GFS op run continues its recent trend of dragging cold air in from the north around the first week of October.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_384_1.png Not exceptional but cold for early to mid autumn.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


yeh theres been a few cold runs this past week for October.  Thats very unusual compared to recent years, even if it doesnt come off, there genuinely feels like a different kind of Autumn in the charts this year.


EDIT:


Backs up my thoughts.   All members barely make it above average and mostly stay well below for the forseable.


 


 No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 

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